Week

Nightly Recap 3-15-2010

Posted by Investing Freak on March 15, 2010
General / 2 Comments

Market Summary:
DOW      +17.46 (10,642.15)
S&P        +0.52 (1,150.51)
Nasdaq  -5.45 (2,362.21)

Nightly News Links

US Economy:

NY Manufacturing Index Shows Strength (Econompic)
Manufacturing activity in the New York region continued at a solid pace in March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Monday. The new orders index shot up 17 points to 25.4. Shipments also moved higher. Inventories climbed above zero for the first time since August 2008.

ECRI Leading Economic Index Drops For 12th Week In A Row (ZeroHedge)
Leading indicators in the U.S. are telling a similar story about a possible double-dip.  Friday’s reading from the ECRI continues to show a weakening recovery. Their leading indicator’s growth rate fell to a 31 week low. The smoothed ECRI leading economic index for the U.S. fell last week for the 12th week in a row, to stand at its lowest level since July 2009. Something tells us a slowdown is about to start.

World Economy:

Moody’s warns nations to cut spending or risk AAA ratings (Washington Post)
The United States and other top world economies need to make potentially painful government spending cuts or risk losing the high-grade credit ratings that have kept borrowing affordable, the Moody’s rating agency said Monday. Outlining the dilemma faced by policymakers in the United States, Great Britain, Germany and France, Moody’s said that debt levels in the four large credit-worthy economies had reached the point at which they are at risk of being downgraded — a step that would drive up interest rates, increase borrowing costs and mark a turn in perceptions about the world economy.

Germany’s Manufacturing Jobs Fell 4.9% in January (Business Insider)
The Federal Statistical Office said Monday the number of Germans employed in manufacturing fell to 4.9 million workers from about 5.15 million in January 2009.

Chinese Economic Indicators Are Starting To Roll Over (Pragmatic Capitalist)
“Early signs of softening in data momentum suggests we should be much more cautious about corrections in those markets that benefited late last, and early this year.” Despite being the strongest leg of the economic recovery, Chinese investors have turned remarkably cautious in recent months.  The Shanghai Index peaked in July of 2009 and has traded down ever since.  The index has declined 9.5% this year while U.S. investors have continued to run head first into stocks.

Interesting Reads:

Consumers Don’t Strongly Identify with Brands (Marketing Charts)
trendwatching.com calls these products and services “functionall,” or providing function for all. Often designed for lower-income consumers in emerging markets, they also have broader crossover appeal for more affluent consumers in mature markets. Look for brand manufacturers to produce more of these products, and for more global brands to try to penetrate mature economies.

Is The US Preparing For a Strike on Iran? (HeraldScotland)
Hundreds of powerful US “bunker-buster” bombs are being shipped from California to the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparation for a possible attack on Iran.The Sunday Herald can reveal that the US government signed a contract in January to transport 10 ammunition containers to the island. According to a cargo manifest from the US navy, this included 387 “Blu” bombs used for blasting hardened or underground structures.

National credit card statement (Cracked)
A National Debt happens when governments spend more than they actually have, and everyone getting the money agrees that’s absolutely fine.

60 Minutes: Michael Lewis’ The Big Short – Video (CBSNews)
If you had to pick someone to write the autopsy report on the Wall Street financial collapse 18 months ago, you couldn’t do any better than Michael Lewis. He is one of the country’s preeminent non-fiction writers with a knack for turning complicated, mind numbing material into fascinating yarns.

Part 1

Part 2

Have a Good Night

-K

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A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

Posted by Investing Freak on October 02, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post  on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM

It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th  “S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable.” ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)

We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.)  When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a “Kicker Bullish“.
That deserved its own post entitled “$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range… which way will it Break?” Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.

The final blog post was written and titled “The One Day Rally Is Over” In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn’t satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks.  The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy.  With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.

On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points.  the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
A-week-in-review
Have a good one,
-K

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Stock Alerts of the Week May 11 – May 15 2009

Posted by Investing Freak on May 15, 2009
General / 2 Comments

WoW what a sea of sell signals there was this week. This is the longest sell list I have seen.
Of Course this meant BUY for the short ETF’s which you will see below with exception to ICE (not a short ETF) which seems to be in its own little world up in the ICE(y) north pole.

Picks of the week of May 11th to May 15th 2009

Symbol

Buy Date

Buy Price

Sell Date

Sell Price

$SPX

5-13-2009

905.40

$INDU

5-13-2009

8461.88

$COMPX

5-12-2009

1743.52

IWM

5-12-2009

50.82

SPY

5-13-2009

90.01

IYR

5-12-2009

34.00

AAPL

5-12-2009

129.71

BBT

5-11-2009

25.02

BCS

5-12-2009

16.87

BAC

5-13-2009

11.95

ICE

5-12-2009

93.28

ING

5-13-2009

9.56

FAZ

5-14-2009

5.81

F

5-12-2009

5.77

SDS

5-13-2009

59.68

SRS

5-13-2009

22.81

SSO

5-13-2009

25.02

SKF

5-13-2009

47.37

UYG

5-13-2009

3.92

URE

5-12-2009

3.97

URG

5-14-2009

1.04

UNG

5-15-2009

16.19

JNK

5-15-2009

33.60

HYG

5-13-2009

76.52

FSLR

5-13-2009

187.05

V

5-12-2009

65.85

ICO

5-13-2009

2.93

TZA

5-13-2009

28.36

I hope you are enjoying the picks so far. Without suggestions and comments I cannot improve this blog so I strongly encourage comments.

-K

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Stock Alerts of the Week May 4 – May 8 2009

Posted by Investing Freak on May 08, 2009
General / Comments Off on Stock Alerts of the Week May 4 – May 8 2009

Last week’s picks have so far turned out to be good. DRYS is up almost 30% since signal.
Let’s move to the score card.  5 positive gains of over 10% each. BAC signal got changed to a buy from a sell just 2 cents difference, and $BKX is acting up in my charting software so I will just eliminate it from watchlist.

Picks of the week of May 4th to May 8th 2009

Symbol

Buy Date

Buy Price

Sell Date

Sell Price

QQQQ

5-7-2009

34.29

BAC

5-4-2009

8.82

REW

5-7-2009

48.31

MOV

5-5-2009

8.98

DRYS

5-8-2009

8.36

URE

5-8-2009

3.70

CFX

5-7-2009

8.50

I hope you are enjoying the picks so far. And just let me know about any suggestions on the comment box

-K

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Stock Alerts of the Week April 27 – May 1 2009

Posted by Investing Freak on May 03, 2009
General / Comments Off on Stock Alerts of the Week April 27 – May 1 2009

As I stated in my latest blog post I wanted to begin giving stock picks based on my trading system.
I have created a page above with all the picks and wouldn’t mind people asking for symbols to put on watch list.

I will also try to post a week in review with the signals given out for the week.
Here are the picks for April 27 to May 1st 2009

Symbol

Buy Date

Buy Price

Sell Date

Sell Price

$BKX

4-27-2009

34.54

BAC

5-1-2009

8.84

DRYS

4-30-2009

6.72

ICE

4-29-2009

84.14

ING

4-29-2009

8.34

UNG

5-1-2009

13.72

ICO

4-29-2009

1.90

As always these are picks but I am not responsible for any financial losses you make following these picks. I wouldn’t mind a share of your gains though.

-K

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