Apple Poised For a Big Move $AAPL

Posted by Investing Freak on December 24, 2009
General / Comments Off on Apple Poised For a Big Move $AAPL

I have been watching Apple Inc. ( $AAPL ) form a symmetrical triangle for the past two months. This is a Continuation Pattern, which means that the triangle is used as a way to head higher if the trend has been upwards and with AAPL it has been.

A symmetrical triangle is generally regarded as a period of consolidation before the price moves beyond one of the identified trendlines.The sharp price movement that often follows a breakout of this formation can be captured by traders who are able to identify the pattern early enough.

The Symmetrical triangle pattern needs to have a few things working for it and we will check them off here.

1. Trend Should be at least a few months old:  Check !AAPL is from march to december.

2. Duration of pattern should be at least 3 weeks old: Check! This pattern is 6 weeks old.

3. Breakout occurs between 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern: Check! It’s about 3/4 of the way.

So now that we checked a few major points off let’s look at a price target.  We take the distance from the widest end of the triangle and in this case is around $20.

From the breakout at around $200, this being a bullish trend apple has been in we add $20 to the upside and put it at ~$220 for a potential breakout target.

There are a few hurdles here for AAPL though the $207-208 area is major resistance so if it can break that $220 is well in sight.

I bought a January $230 Call option at 0.23 to prepare for the move instead of putting major capital in the stock

Here is the chart (Click to Enlarge)

Update: I tried posting it last night but my host was down so i gave up.  $AAPL is currently at ~$207.50 (in between the resistance I mentioned)
I have also sold my Call options for a hefty 140% Profit from yesterday’s buy-in price, if Apple breaks above 208 I might be re-buying some.

Merry Christmas!!

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A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

Posted by Investing Freak on October 02, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post  on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM

It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th  “S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable.” ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)

We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.)  When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a “Kicker Bullish“.
That deserved its own post entitled “$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range… which way will it Break?” Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.

The final blog post was written and titled “The One Day Rally Is Over” In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn’t satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks.  The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy.  With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.

On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points.  the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
Have a good one,

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Prediction: Dow Jones Industrial bottoms at 10,800

Posted by Investing Freak on June 30, 2008
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Prediction: Dow Jones Industrial bottoms at 10,800

From the way the market has been swinging lately even with any recovery time, the dow jones industrial has yet to bottom a week after i wrote about how it had not bottomed. Over 500 points down later i still think the dow jones industrial has a long ways to go (with some rallies in between obviously).  I feel like I am too optimistic by calling a bottom at 10,800 because if President Bush and his best friend Dick Cheney start a war in Iran my bottom call will look stupid.

And here is an updated chart.

Dow Jones Industrial June 30 2008

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