Unemployment

Existing Home Sales Plunge, Unemployment to do the reverse

Posted by Investing Freak on August 24, 2010
General / 4 Comments

Existing Home Sales which are more important than the new home sales data plunged over 27% year over year, the amount of sales was the lowest since 1995. At the current pace it will take over 1 year (yes 12+ months) to sell the existing houses out there.

People have begun losing their jobs once again after a few months of lowering unemployment claims. How do I back this up? No data other than I now have more than one close acquaintance that within the next 2-3 weeks will receive a pink slip. They survived during the worst of it all and now employers are deciding its time to let go. Thats amazing! Keep your profits because you wont be making as much money in the future with 15% of the american workforce unable to afford staples such as bread without a food stamp.

On the currency front according to ZeroHedge

And once again, all of Europe is dumping its deposits in Switzerland, running away from domestic banking centers, and making the lives of Hungarian CHF-denominated debtors a living hell. The EURCHF just hit an all time low of 1.3066. The Bank intervention sonar just went apeshit as both the BoJ and the SNB are fully expected to intervene at any moment.

Technically Speaking? See for yourself how the market has acted recently especially since I officially returned from break August 6th.

K- August 6th, 2010
vacation just ended today so it will take me at least a week to slowly get the groove back. be patient this time…

Euro/Usd and SPX have been in a water slide since.  Its hard getting from Information overload mode to 2 month no internet and back to information overload so I tire out by all the information I once processed in a usual day so the recovery process puts me on tract to return trading right after labor day and the Special chart that hasn’t been posted here in a bit as well. (Click to Enlarge)

Happy Trading and make money trading not listening to baldies at CNBC unless he entertains you and the advice isnt followed. 🙂

-K

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A few words on the Economy from Christopher Probyn of SSGA

Posted by Investing Freak on November 02, 2009
General / Comments Off on A few words on the Economy from Christopher Probyn of SSGA

I was fortunate to attend a presentation by Christopher Probyn of SSGA

“The Financial Crisis: Causes, Consequences and the Prospects for Recovery.”

I spent more time listening than writing things down so pardon me for just providing an outline of what he mentioned that interested me.

  • Headwinds to the economy: Weakness Abroad, Deteriorating Commercial Real Estate Markets.
  • V Shaped recoveries usually follow deep recessions, Mr. Probyn is looking for a U shaped recovery to play out.
  • Unemployment will reach at least 10% (It’s close enough now and we shall see Friday if it happens already)
  • Inflation will come way down from the current 1.5% due to the higher unemployment rate.
  • There is a good chance CPI will break below 0% (It already has in Japan and Europe) Deflation Alert!
  • Do need to worry about inflation until capacity utilization rate goes to at least 80% (Currently in the 60’s)

That’s all Folks. I hope you found it interesting to say the least.

-K

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