trend

Apple Poised For a Big Move $AAPL

Posted by Investing Freak on December 24, 2009
General / Comments Off on Apple Poised For a Big Move $AAPL

I have been watching Apple Inc. ( $AAPL ) form a symmetrical triangle for the past two months. This is a Continuation Pattern, which means that the triangle is used as a way to head higher if the trend has been upwards and with AAPL it has been.

A symmetrical triangle is generally regarded as a period of consolidation before the price moves beyond one of the identified trendlines.The sharp price movement that often follows a breakout of this formation can be captured by traders who are able to identify the pattern early enough.

The Symmetrical triangle pattern needs to have a few things working for it and we will check them off here.

1. Trend Should be at least a few months old:  Check !AAPL is from march to december.

2. Duration of pattern should be at least 3 weeks old: Check! This pattern is 6 weeks old.

3. Breakout occurs between 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern: Check! It’s about 3/4 of the way.

So now that we checked a few major points off let’s look at a price target.  We take the distance from the widest end of the triangle and in this case is around $20.

From the breakout at around $200, this being a bullish trend apple has been in we add $20 to the upside and put it at ~$220 for a potential breakout target.

There are a few hurdles here for AAPL though the $207-208 area is major resistance so if it can break that $220 is well in sight.

I bought a January $230 Call option at 0.23 to prepare for the move instead of putting major capital in the stock

Here is the chart (Click to Enlarge)

Update: I tried posting it last night but my host was down so i gave up.  $AAPL is currently at ~$207.50 (in between the resistance I mentioned)
I have also sold my Call options for a hefty 140% Profit from yesterday’s buy-in price, if Apple breaks above 208 I might be re-buying some.

Merry Christmas!!

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Downhill from here Or more upside?

Posted by Investing Freak on October 15, 2009
General / Comments Off on Downhill from here Or more upside?

The SPY made a hanging man candle today and so did a few other stocks like C (reporting tomorrow before open)

It happened on a bullish trend so it is defenetly a bad sign.

It is late but I will update tomorrow with more writing and of course my favorite thing; charts!

-K

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S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doeable.

Posted by Investing Freak on September 25, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

On September 23rd at 9:24Pm I wrote the following prediction on Twitter.

Prediction Alert: $SPX 1035 By Oct 1st9:24 PM Sep 23rd from web

I made that prediction based on a few trend lines I was watching that had begun to break down. This is from September 16th. it took then 1 full week of the SPX moving along that trendline before finally breaking below.  (Click To Enlarge)
spx-risingwedge-sept16-09

The next day my system began throwing out SELL alerts and that confirmed my bearish case. I acted upon a few of the alerts and am happy to say that so far they are green.
Here are the alerts for the Major indices.

sell-92409
In my previous post I was expecting the correction to start 10 days earlier than it actually did and that post now stands at 67% accuracy.
Today S&P Closed at 1044. Will it close at or below 1035 by October 1st?  I believe it will, what about you.

Have a good Weekend and check out the rest of the signals by clicking above on the “Current Picks” Tab.

-K

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Is Dow Jones ready to recover?

Posted by Investing Freak on July 19, 2008
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

Almost a Month ago I wrote a post about how the dow had yet to bottom. See: The Dow Jones Industrial Index has not yet bottomed ,at that time the index was at 11,842.  A week later I followed up with a prediction that the Dow Jones Industrial would bottom at 10,800 (See:Prediction: Dow Jones Industrial bottoms at 10,800.)

On July 15,2008 the Dow Jones Index fell to 10,827 to make a new 52-week low. That new low came very close to my prediction and soon after it began rebounding. Since the weekend came and I found some time to go and revisit the chart for the dow I now think that the index has bottomed out and should begin to climb.

I believe the market will begin recovering because of a few reasons.
1. 10,800 is a very strong support zone going back to 2006
2. Oil prices have recently fallen from $146  to $128 (maybe that  bubble is deflating)
3. The chart shows that the sellers are moving out and more buyers are beginning to take over (green and red lines almost crossing. Green is buyers, red is sellers)
4. At the end of the chart is the amount of money being put in the market. Since mid May it was in a downtrend which meant people were taking money out of the market and now it has broken out of the trend.

As you will see in the chart below however, today’s action is within the downturn trend line and it needs to close above 11,500 or we might not have hit recovery period just yet.

Without further adieu i present to you… the Dow Jones Industrial Recovery Chart.


At this point i have invested in stock symbol (DDM) which has the top 30 Dow Jones Companies.
It goes mostly parallel to the Dow Jones Industrial Index. You can check out my current holdings at my Covestor page.
If you have any comments feel free to post them.

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