today

Euro to reach 1.17 versus Dollar in 2012 ($EURUSD)

Posted by K on May 29, 2012
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Euro to reach 1.17 versus Dollar in 2012 ($EURUSD)

With the current re-ignition of market turmoil in Europe and their unifying currency, the Euro is in trouble again in part due to fears of Greek default an exit from the Euro, the Spanish bank bailouts and many other issues currently facing European countries (as well as US).

News are absorbed in the market faster than you can blink with today’s technological tools and robot trading programs so its time to exploit my perceived strength which is long term technical analysis.

The charts you will see below are very simple charts of the Euro as far back as I could get data for and the conclusion I came to is that $EURUSD will reach the 1.17 mark again within months in 2012.

Note: The Bigger and longer term version of the chart can be found by clicking on the image below.


Would love to hear your opinion and take on this so feel free to comment or tweet and include @investingfreak

-K

Share

Tags: , , , , , ,

TED Target reached: Increasing short positions.

Posted by K on November 19, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on TED Target reached: Increasing short positions.

Here we go again.
On September 28 I stated the following:

The TED Spread which measures the general risk in the economy has been rising the last couple of weeks. today alone it rose 5.42% which means interbank loans are now riskier.  This is still not significant enough and I would like to see another 33% increase in the TED before I really put a lot of my sidelined money on the short side.

On the 28th TED was at around 0.195  so a 33% move would put the TED at around 0.26 and today TED closed at 0.262 which satisfies my reasoning for going short.

On October 27th TED was in an Ascending Channel and also stated that a higher TED spread would mean that a major market correction is underway as banks are raising loan rates between eachother. Rising rates means there will be some major trouble in at least the financial sector which allocates 15% of the S&P Index.

Here is the latest Chart of the TED showing the channel that has been broken.  (Click To Enlarge)

ted-11192009

Another Blogger has picked up on the TED and here is Daneric’s TED Chart.
Finally keep in mind that the current TED is still far below the average TED which is at around 0.50 (50 basis points).  We’re halfway there and its good to catch onto this risk indicator before CNBC does.

I will add shorts via options and inverse ETF’s very soon but always use my opinions as a viewpoint and not investment advice. Everyone has different risk tolerances.

Happy Trading,  K

 

Share

Tags: , , , , , ,

$SPX Psychotic Line Resistance

Posted by K on October 21, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on $SPX Psychotic Line Resistance

It was a fun day today.
Market opened up and rallied 10 points by 10:45AM.  It was all downhill from there but the big kicker came at 3:10-4PM when the market dropped 17 points.

I will let 2 charts and this link be the hint of what I think we are going to do in the next few days at least.

Chart 1 is a closeup of the past month with the trend lines drawn almost a month in advance. (Click to enlarge)

spx102109

Chart 2 is a zoomed out view from where the rally began. (Click to enlarge)

spx102109-2

That’s all folks. These are the charts promised almost a week earlier.
Have a safe investing season this fall/winter it should be epic.

-K

Share

Tags: , , , , , ,

The One Day Rally Is Over!

Posted by K on September 28, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

Last night I posted about the S&P possibly having a Kicker Bullish Setup.
Well  The S&P Rallied 18.60 points to 1062.98.
The Setup was not executed perfectly (market would have had to gap higher today then go the distance)

All bets are off on an extended rally that needs to go higher than 1080.15 to be worthy of anything.

While the market rallied the S&P only traded at half its normal volume.
Stocks like Citigroup which had traded over a billion shares a day, are lately trading at less than 500 million.

The TED Spread which measures the general risk in the economy has been rising the last couple of weeks. today alone it rose 5.42% which means interbank loans are now riskier.  This is still not significant enough and I would like to see another 33% increase in the TED before I really put a lot of my sidelined money on the short side.

We had MBIA (MBI) stock trade up  11.38% today only to be down over 7% in after hours.. why?

Standard & Poor’s on Monday cut its ratings on MBIA Inc and its structured finance insurance arm, MBIA Insurance Corp, citing an expectation the company will continue to take significant losses from insuring risky loans. … The outlook for both companies is negative

Well if that wasn’t enough the dollar has began to show some strength as well despite the almost 20 point one day rally.

Bottom Line:  Be very careful if going long from here on out. The false optimism game has been played for far too long and you might get stuck holding a worthless institutional stock come October.  It’s also end of month markup so for the next few days prices might be kept afloat by institutions.

Have a good one.

-K

Share

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

S&P Rising Wedge Pattern

Posted by K on May 12, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on S&P Rising Wedge Pattern

I wanted to post this chart of the S&P with the following indicators added.
Bollinger bands with 2 SD’s and also the 36MA.
It is a 4 hour interval so every candlestick represents 4 hours.
2 candlesticks equal to a full day so that eliminates a lot of noise and allows me to see what happened the first part of the day and the last part.

I did get a temporary sell signal on the S&P today but that was before the second candlestick closed so it is not yet a Sell.
As always I will update the latest signals every weekend until I find more time to update more often.
(Click the chart to enlarge)

spx-5-12-09

I hope you enjoy this chart and I really want your opinions on what to do with the direction of this blog and the types of things I post.

-K

Share

Tags: , , , , , ,