Posted by K
on May 25, 2012
Today the S&P 500 was taking a break and heading to the Hamptons for the long weekend (or maybe for the entire summer).
Is the market poised to absorb most negative news that’s already out there or what?
The Weekly chart looks to be bouncing although there are always fake-outs. For any newcomer that is new to charting just a note that each candlestick on the chart represents 1 WEEK of price movement so what happens on Tuesday when the market opens has no real effect on this chart until close on Friday.
The 50 and 70 Weekly Simple Moving averages are below the price supporting it and it looks like a trendline from last October is also still intact and providing some support and if this market has legs we might see 2-4% move to the upside until the Greek elections a month from now.
Click the chart to enlarge it.
I had long SPY call options and upon wanting to add today my subconscious mind decided to liquidate. We shall see if its smarter than my brain and can feel something I’m not feeling or seeing.
Have a safe memorial weekend,
Posted by K
on June 09, 2010
Going into the open today 1077 was on the radar as a heavy resistance. It will now try to become a death cross of two averages i use that can be seen as the blue and red lines in the Special Investing Freak $SPX chart.
As for what happened today I decided it is best to sum it up using this image and text. (Click To Enlarge)
I bought Puts early on then called top of 1077 in a comment at around 10:50 with the top on the market coming at around 11:30 where I decided it was time to make true to my preaching and sell my calls. Sold puts at end of day and am flat for the next day opening so i can sleep well
Keep checking the comments for latest news and talk and feel free to participate (dont be shy)
Let’s just say
Posted by K
on May 07, 2010
If you’ve been following my blog recently you might have noticed my April 28, 2010 “Special Edition: Here comes the red ink, correction begins.”
On April 27th The SPX stood at 1183 and it swung as low as 1065 during the past 7 trading days to ultimately close at 1110.
As I wrote on the 28th
I finally had time to check on the market a big grin came to my face. A lot went on today and news blamed Greece and Portugal downgrades for the sharp drop. Nobody ever talks about the technical analysis because it is beyond the mind of Joe the Plumber.
The first chart was the EUR/USD which broke an ascending triangle on the daily back in December. Below is an animation of Apr 27 and May 7 to show the move. If you have trouble viewing the animated image please leave me a comment because it’s the first time I’m using animated content. (CLICK TO VIEW ANIMATION)
Next we’ll move onto the $TED Spread which jumped nearly 100 percent since the 28th. (Click to View Animation)
Lastly I will leave you off with the Investing Freak Special SPX chart animation. Boy was this a move, the red line is the 250 day moving average in case you are wondering. (Click to View Animation)
Where do I see us heading from here? We still haven’t broken some key supports such as the 1088 trendline and the 1060 250Day moving average. So if we drop another 50 point we will still be good to go for a bounce. If more crazy days are upon us? I will check with BID ( Sotheby’s ) to see if it’s gone below 22 to initiate heavy short positions.
Thats just me and as always these are my opinions and even though they work for me I cant guarantee them working for you.
Have a good weekend and be on the lookout for the latest Current Picks signal changes coming up this weekend.
Posted by K
on April 14, 2010
Back on March 28th I posted an InvestingFreak original chart of the S&P500. Blue line is 10SMA and It has held for a few months now but as the market heads higher it faces a few resistance points, is 1216 the absolute top (I have preached that number offline for a while now) and a good correction of 100 points upon us? Remember that at this point all positive earnings might be faced with a “sell the news” attitude.
I don’t have time for the nightly recaps but I will leave you with an updated chart that you will like. (Click To Enlarge)
Have a good night and make some money!
Posted by K
on March 30, 2010
DOW +11.56 (10,907.42)
S&P -0.05 (1,173.27)
Nasdaq +6.33 (2,410.69)
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
Nightly News Links
Downtown New York Office Vacancy Rate Spikes To 9/11 Levels (Zero Hedge)
Bloomberg TV reports that the office vacancy rate in downtown NY has dropped to September 11th levels, and is about to pass 14%.
SPX Struggling at 1180 (The Art Of Trading)
“The SPX has attempted several times to crack thru 1180 and seems to be having trouble. I think it’s best to sit in cash or be very nimble if you wanna play the short side. 1150 is very strong support for the SPX and pullbacks there would likely see some solid bounce i imagine. If i had it my way, i’d love to see the indexes pullback for another few more days. As i type this, i am noticing lots of stocks turning deeper into the red yet the indexes are only down slightly. I think CASH IS KING and look to buy stocks on dips!”
22 Storms in NE: Winter 2009-2010 Radar Loop (AccuWeather)
Today what could be the last Nor’easter of the season is affecting the Northeastern U.S. It’s interesting if you compare the heavy rain area for today’s storm with the heavy snow area from this winter, they are very similar. Major storms are continuing to move up the East Coast as they have all season, it’s just warmer now so we’re seeing rain instead of snow.* These winter storms have dropped 30-40 inches of rain (and liquid snow) in the I-95 corridor, which would normally only receive 20-25 inches over the winter.
That is all for tonight, very boring night link-wise, weather wise and market wise.
Have a Good Night and here’s to a more exciting Wednesday.
Posted by K
on October 02, 2009
I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM
It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th ”S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable.” ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)
We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.) When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a “Kicker Bullish“.
That deserved its own post entitled “$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range… which way will it Break?” Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.
The final blog post was written and titled “The One Day Rally Is Over” In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn’t satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks. The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy. With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.
On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points. the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
Have a good one,
Posted by K
on September 27, 2009
The S&P 500 index is stuck in a 9 point price box.
1051 is resistance from October 2008.
1042 is support from the last 3 days and also the 18SMA.
We need to see 2 or more days of market closing either above or below one of these 2 points before there is any significant breakout or breakdown.
For the moment we have a setup for almost a Kicker Bullish setup but the 3rd red candle that was put in on Friday doesn’t make this a perfect pattern.
If on Monday we follow the Kicker setup, we might have a move to higher highs (above 1080).
The setup is not exactly a Kicker but it fits the bill very well. If $SPX closes below 1042 for 2 or more days then next support is 1030 which would be the defining moment of this “Bull Market”.
Here is the attached Daily and Hourly chart (Click to Enlarge)
Look for an update by next weekend if the setup plays out.
Posted by K
on September 01, 2009
As I posted a while back, (See the “Fake Correction Followed By Fake Rally?” article if you missed it) the $SPX (The S&P 500 Index) has nicely corrected to satisfy me that there will be another move up 20-40 points to shake off more bears and when they are nearly all out (If market makes a higher high it will be seen as very bullish) it will have a massive correction to trap bulls and make bears cry for getting out too quickly.
I will be revisiting the charts I drew in the previous article mentioned above. Let’s start with the closer look in the past 3 days.
I was waiting for the SPX to break either the red or the green line and close below it. Well yesterday it did just that and that was the first clue as to where we were heading today.
The blue arrows are there to just demonstrate the Support line and where yesterday’s close was. Grey line was my prediction for the next 2 weeks or so but it was defied by the market as it tanked lower and lower. (Click to Enlarge)
Second chart is the long term view of things and 2 possible outcomes that this investing freak sees realistic.
Scenario 1: (Orange Lines) Bounce back the next 5 days to reach possible 1040 (ADP Nonfarm Employment change tomorrow morning so this could happen if it “surprises”) then drop back to 1000′s and head lower going into October.
Scenario 2: (Green Lines) Go down further for the next day or to and reach 985-990 for a close (it could go down further and still close above 985 to be valid). Then hit ~1020 shake a few shorts that believe 1000 level has cracked and proceed into 950′s.
Scenario 3: That’s your opinion and I would like to know
Here comes the updated chart. (Click to Enlarge)
Good luck! and don’t forget to follow me on:
Twitter ( http://twitter.com/investingfreak ) or Stocktwits ( http://www.stocktwits.com/u/investingfreak )
For the latest live commentary.