Weekly Picks- Buy:IYR,XLF Sell:DRYS,SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX
This week was mostly a reversal of calls made last week, the only new call is a Sell on DRYS.
When the week moves in a range (market Zig Zagged 30 points up and down) they are called False Signals because my system is a trending one.
Nobody has called me out on my calls but this is the first back to back week that signals have reversed in my blogging days so I thought I'd clear the air 
.
I will be introducing a new Feature this week. A chart to accompany each call. The charts are 3 months and they show all signals that might have occurred during that time-frame.
Red Dots means SELL and Green dots signal BUY. Simple enough? Great Let's get started.
Here's a look at SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Chart
(Click to Enlarge, Same goes for the rest of the charts)
Upgrades
IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $52.23
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $16.74
Downgrades
DRYS DryShips Inc.
downgraded to SELL on Apr 19 at $6.20
SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 21 at $26.98
SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $17.32
SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 23 at $32.37
VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $18.27
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
-K
Weekly Picks- Buy:SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX Sell:IYR,XLF
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
Upgrades
SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $29.18 (SELL Apr 05 at $28.60)
SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $18.11 (SELL Feb 16 at $24.17)
SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $34.01 (SELL Mar 29 at $34.95)
VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $19.97 (SELL Feb 11 at $31.40)
Downgrades
IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $50.24 (BUY Apr 05 at $51.05)
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $16.36 (BUY Feb 16 at $14.34)
Notes:
URE and UYG are off my list after the splits because of charting issues.
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K
8-20-2009.. another repeat of 7-13-2009 ?
If you have been following my current picks page you might have noticed that most of the symbols received buy signals on 7-13-2009 which is when the March rally was coming to a correction but then bounced. Will we have another case of this with 8-20-2009?
I was hoping we wouldn't that is why I posted those charts yesterday thinking we had topped. Well my automated strategy was saying otherwise and I completely Ignored it.
Normally I would just update the current picks page but this time around I have decided to make a blog post.
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Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
$SPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$INDU |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$COMPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QQQQ |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
IWM |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SPY |
8-20-2009 |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
IYR |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
AAPL |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DRYS |
8-14-2009 |
|
|
SDS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SRS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SSO |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SKF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
UYG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
URE |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
JNK |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
HYG |
8-7-2009 |
|
|
REW |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QID |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
QLD |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
XLF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DIG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DUG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SMN |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
VXX |
|
8-19-2009 |
The VIX ETF signaled a sell before the rest of the signals came in the following day. That is interesting.
-K
Current Picks
LAST UPDATE: 8-8-2010
This page is intended to provide buy and sell signals given by a strategy.
Those who like my calls can follow or at least consider the alerts; those that think this is all fake can keep opinions to themselves and check the info page. Amount of time in the market using this system is about 38% on average which means you are not in at all times. It is not a buy and hold strategy nor is it a day trading strategy unless very rarely a buy and a sell signal occur on the same day.
I am only giving the latest signal for each stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration.
Market Indices
| Symbol | Description | Buy Date | Sell Date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
$SPX
|
S&P 500 INDEX
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SPY
|
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
$INDU
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
$COMPX
|
NASDAQ Composite
|
7-8-2010
|
|
|
QQQQ
|
PowerShares QQQ (ETF)
|
7-8-2010
|
|
|
IWM
|
iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
More Symbols
| Symbol | Description | Buy Date | Sell Date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AAPL
|
Apple Inc.
|
8-6-2010
|
|
|
BID
|
Sotheby's
|
8-4-2010
|
|
|
BBT
|
BB&T Corporation
|
7-15-2010
|
|
|
DIG
|
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (ETF)
|
7-20-2010
|
|
|
DUG
|
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (ETF)
|
7-20-2010
|
|
|
DRYS
|
DryShips Inc.
|
7-8-2010
|
|
|
HYG
|
iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
IYR
|
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
|
7-22-2010
|
|
|
JNK
|
SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield B (ETF)
|
8-5-2010
|
|
|
QID
|
ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)
|
7-20-2010
|
|
|
QLD
|
ProShares Ultra QQQ (ETF)
|
8-2-2010
|
|
|
REW
|
ProShares UltraShort Technology (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SDS
|
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SKF
|
ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
|
|
SMN
|
ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SRS
|
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
|
|
SSO
|
ProShares Ultra S&P500 (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
VXX
|
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
|
6-10-2010
|
|
|
XLF
|
Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
Stock tips from the Freak strategy
After SKF's latest blunder in which I called the sell-off then couldn't resist the LOW LOW price of $155, I set off to design a strategy that overtime would bring consistent growth. I am using a 4hour interval for the strategy so it really isn't day-trading but also it's not long term investment (like those exist much anymore).
The idea is to give stock tips when the strategy throws me a Buy signal then to call the selling point when the strategy yells SELL.
Now If i use the S&P 500 or the Russel or any other index (all the stocks within it), I will get a lot of buy and sell signals that will drive me crazy.
I'm wondering if any of you have ideas on which stocks to put on watch list. I will also need to create a section on this page to show the buy and sell signals with their dates as well as how much gain/loss occurred.
I think i might be going a bit over my head as many people do this for a fee (Timothy Sykes anyone?) but I will think this through for the next week or two and then decide what to do. Your comments are really needed this time especially for ideas on which stocks to put on the alert list.
Till next Time,
-K (The busy man)
SKF down to earth ready to refuel?
On Friday March 6th I made a new blog post calling SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought.
Now, 10 days later I want to put my opinion down in writing. SKF went from over $260 to $126 (so far) that is more than 50% off (around $13.40/day for past 10 days).
When I first posted my opinion i was being generous and looking at $182-$186 for the move down to earth.
There was an important fib retracement at $155 and one at $120.
Being a recent fib retracement follower I have a position in the $150-155 range, toady SKF didn't go as low as $120 or i would have doubled down.
If this is the short term bottom for SKF the move up seems to hit $213, I am not good with timing the market with dates so i don't want to give misleading info.
to recap.. SKF trying to refuel? Buy at $155 or $120 with a target at $213
I am including a visual as always (Click to enlarge)
Disclosure: As i stated in my post I have a position at $150's range and was looking to double it at $120.
-K
SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought?
I hope you saw my post about my February performance. Most of my gains were thanks to shorting the financial sector via SKF.
I have still kept an eye on the ETF after selling it and is now is extremely overbought on many levels. I had a target of $250-255 for it but I did not hold my shares past $200. Now that my target has been reached I am looking for SKF to come back down to earth, I am looking for at least $182-186 range.
With the market crashing down so fast there is not much incentive to go more short as I am sure SEC has plans for a no shorting rule or at least something to stop the bleeding. That concludes this post and I will rest my case by providing you the chart which I am basing my case on.
Below I am attaching a chart showing the RSI being overbought but also SKF itself going over the Bollinger bands that I use.
If you are looking to buy into SKF (besides trading it for quick scalps) then either stay away from it or just take the chart into consideration. (Click to Enlarge)
As always, I merely post my opinions on here so I am not responsible for anyone's financial decisions.
Have a good day,
-K
SPY Possible Bullish Pattern
While this past week has been tough on many investors, I have made my fair share of profits trading SKF intraday.
You can check out my covestor page and see my YTD performance to see how much more disciplined I have become in 2009.
Looking at the SPY 1minute charts, there seems to be a possible Bullish Three Drives Pattern developing.
Using Fibonacci retracements I created the chart below. Basically when SPY hits 73.39 area there is a strong case for a rally to kick-start. I do not know how strong the rally will be but you might not want to short on Monday.
Here is the SPY 1 minute chart (Click to Enlarge)
As Always, Feel free to add anything on this topic or ask any questions you might have.
-K
Wild Market
The only reason I have not posted much in my blog is because I don't want to play with the August wild market and therefore watched Freddie and Fannie get taken over without saying a word.
I am still holding onto SKF and even bought more as the price dropped.
I do see energy stocks making a comeback at least in the short term.
One of the symbols I am watching is UGA (United States Gasoline) stock fluctuates with the prices of Gasoline in the US.
With Gasoline beginning to rise thanks to hurricane Ike hitting Texas this is beginning to look good.
This is a short post but I should get back to posting more opinions and charts within a few days. Thanks for Reading and please feel free to voice your opinion in the comment box.
Investing in a Bearish Market
During hard times like the ones we are seeing now with the economy, one thing i am beginning to like is Ultra Short ETF's. They are basically bets against certain sectors or indexes. There are also ProShares which bet for the market to go up.
One of my latest moves into ETF's is buying (SKF) Ultrashort Financials on August 14, 2008 . As you can see from the table i have provided (hopefully it displays decent in most readers) I am looking at the Point & Figure Patterns for the Top 40 stocks market cap wise in the financial sector. FRE and FNM are not up at the top but have been talked a lot about in recent news.
Before i get you confused as to what the signals mean I will provide a brief description of each, courtesy of stockcharts.com
- The double bottom breakdown implies that the buyers who were supporting the price are no longer able to create demand that is more than the supply, and prices are breaking down.
- A triple bottom breakdown is similar to a double bottom breakdown except that the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down.
- A double bottom followed by another double bottom, or three bottoms, each lower than the previous is recognized as an descending triple bottom breakdown. The idea is that supply is continuing to outstrip demand on an ongoing basis.
- A bull trap is a triple top breakout followed by a reversal. The breakout is possibly due to buy stops being hit just above the resistance level, and the quick reversal suggests lower prices ahead.
- The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.
- Bullish signal reversed pattern is a series of rising tops and bottoms that finally soaks up all demand and the double bottom breakdown at the end signals that now supply is outstripping demand.
Enjoy the table I have created. As you can see many bearish signals were given on August 13 so I went ahead and bought SKF on Aug 14 at $123.50.
|
Top Bearish Financials |
||
|
Symbol |
Signal |
Date Signal Spotted |
|
Triple Bottom Breakdown |
August 6, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 7, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 8, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 11, 2008 |
|
|
Descending Tripple Bottom Breakdown |
August 12, 2008 |
|
|
Triple Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Spread Triple Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Bull Trap |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Bearish Triangle |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
High Pole Warning |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Bullish Signal Reversed |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
High Pole Warning |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 14, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 14, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 18, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 18, 2008 |
|
This is the longest post i've written and I'm sure some of you want to ask questions or make comments, please let's discuss.