$SPX Stuck in a 9 point range..Which way will it Break?

Posted by Investing Freak on September 27, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

The S&P 500 index is stuck in a 9 point price box.
1051 is resistance from October 2008.
1042 is support from  the last 3 days and also the 18SMA.

We need to see 2 or more days of market closing either above or below one of these 2 points before there is  any significant breakout or breakdown.
For the moment  we have a setup for almost a Kicker Bullish setup but the 3rd red candle that was put in on Friday doesn’t make this a perfect pattern.
If on Monday we follow the Kicker setup, we might have a move to higher highs (above 1080).
The setup is not exactly a Kicker but it fits the bill very well.  If $SPX closes below 1042 for 2 or more days then next support is 1030 which would be the defining moment of this “Bull Market”.

Here is the attached Daily and Hourly chart  (Click to Enlarge)


Look for an update by next weekend if the setup plays out.


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Fake correction followed by a fake rally?

Posted by Investing Freak on August 27, 2009
Market Analysis / 1 Comment

The past 4 days The S&P and many other markets have traded within a very narrow range.
There have been doji candles galore. trendlines, averages, bullishness ratios and even the Elliot Wave expert said rally is ending and a correction will come sooner or later that will surpass the march low.

I have taken the liberty to put up a few $SPX charts with possible short term outcomes.

The big picture is in the first image (Click to Enlarge)
I am looking for the S&P to go to 1010 to lure in bears and then bounce off the trendline and make a higher high to fool the  bulls and shake the bears. Then lastly (not in these pictures) I am looking at 950’s as a conservative bet.

spx-aug27-09Here is a closer look short term view.  Upside target is 1040-1050.
spx-aug27-09-closeI hope you enjoy my opinion and feel free to comment your own.

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SKF down to earth ready to refuel?

Posted by Investing Freak on March 16, 2009
General / 1 Comment

On Friday March 6th I made a new blog post calling SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought.

Now, 10 days later I want to put my opinion down in writing.  SKF went from over $260 to $126 (so far) that is more than 50% off (around $13.40/day for past 10 days).
When I first posted my opinion i was being generous and looking at $182-$186 for the move down to earth.
There was an important fib retracement at $155 and one at $120.

Being a recent fib retracement follower I have a position in the $150-155 range, toady SKF didn’t go as low as $120 or i would have doubled down.
If this is the short term bottom for SKF the  move up seems to hit $213, I am not good with timing the market with dates so i don’t want to give misleading info.

to recap.. SKF trying to refuel? Buy at $155 or $120 with a target at $213

I am including a visual as always (Click to enlarge)

Disclosure: As i stated in my post I have a position at $150’s range and was looking to double it at $120.


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SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought?

Posted by Investing Freak on March 06, 2009
General / 3 Comments

I hope you saw my post about my February performance. Most of my gains were thanks to shorting the financial sector via SKF.

I have still kept an eye on the ETF after selling it and is now is extremely overbought on many levels. I had a target of $250-255 for it but I did not hold my shares past $200. Now that my target has been reached I am looking for SKF to come back down to earth,  I am looking for at least $182-186 range.

With the market crashing down so fast there is not much incentive to go more short as I am sure SEC has plans for a no shorting rule or at least something to stop the bleeding.  That concludes this post and I will rest my case by providing you the chart which I am basing my case on.

Below I am attaching a chart showing the RSI being overbought but also SKF itself going over the Bollinger bands that I use. 
If you are looking to buy into SKF (besides trading it for quick scalps) then either stay away from it or just take the chart into consideration.    (Click to Enlarge)


As always, I merely post my opinions on here so I am not responsible for anyone’s financial decisions.

Have a good day,

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Neutral Tandem (TNDM)

Posted by Investing Freak on June 17, 2008
General / 1 Comment

(TNDM) provides tandem interconnection services principally to competitive carriers, including wireless, wireline, cable, and broadband telephony companies in the United States.

This stock looks good technically and should head north for the short run at least.
As of closing June 16, 2008 the stock is at $19.19 and that will be my hypothetical buy price.

The stock’s basic fundamentals:
52wk Range: 16.51 – 23.00
P/E (ttm): 63.75

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