A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True
I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM
It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th "S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable." ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)
We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.) When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a "Kicker Bullish".
That deserved its own post entitled "$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range... which way will it Break?" Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.
The final blog post was written and titled "The One Day Rally Is Over" In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn't satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks. The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy. With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.
On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points. the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
Have a good one,
-K
S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doeable.
On September 23rd at 9:24Pm I wrote the following prediction on Twitter.
Prediction Alert: $SPX 1035 By Oct 1st9:24 PM Sep 23rd from web
I made that prediction based on a few trend lines I was watching that had begun to break down. This is from September 16th. it took then 1 full week of the SPX moving along that trendline before finally breaking below. (Click To Enlarge)
The next day my system began throwing out SELL alerts and that confirmed my bearish case. I acted upon a few of the alerts and am happy to say that so far they are green.
Here are the alerts for the Major indices.
In my previous post I was expecting the correction to start 10 days earlier than it actually did and that post now stands at 67% accuracy.
Today S&P Closed at 1044. Will it close at or below 1035 by October 1st? I believe it will, what about you.
Have a good Weekend and check out the rest of the signals by clicking above on the "Current Picks" Tab.
-K
The last leg of my August 27th prediction.
Well one last time revisiting my latest predictions since august 27th.
Checklist:
Fake Correction? Check (August 27-Sept 2nd)
Mini Recovery? Check (Sept 3rd to Sept 11th)
Major Correction? In Progress (Sept 14th to ... )
Check the attached Updated chart. (Click To Enlarge)
The Orange Line Scenario Happened for the most part except the fakeout below a trend line (circled above)
From the Sept 1 Blogpost:
Scenario 1: (Orange Lines) Bounce back the next 5 days to reach possible 1040 then drop back to 1000’s and head lower going into October.
I am 2/3 so far looking for a full 100% return on my prediction.
Have a good one.
-K
Mini Correction, Mini Recovery Then Massive Correction?
As I posted a while back, (See the "Fake Correction Followed By Fake Rally?" article if you missed it) the $SPX (The S&P 500 Index) has nicely corrected to satisfy me that there will be another move up 20-40 points to shake off more bears and when they are nearly all out (If market makes a higher high it will be seen as very bullish) it will have a massive correction to trap bulls and make bears cry for getting out too quickly.
I will be revisiting the charts I drew in the previous article mentioned above. Let's start with the closer look in the past 3 days.
I was waiting for the SPX to break either the red or the green line and close below it. Well yesterday it did just that and that was the first clue as to where we were heading today.
The blue arrows are there to just demonstrate the Support line and where yesterday's close was. Grey line was my prediction for the next 2 weeks or so but it was defied by the market as it tanked lower and lower. (Click to Enlarge)
Second chart is the long term view of things and 2 possible outcomes that this investing freak sees realistic.
Scenario 1: (Orange Lines) Bounce back the next 5 days to reach possible 1040 (ADP Nonfarm Employment change tomorrow morning so this could happen if it "surprises") then drop back to 1000's and head lower going into October.
Scenario 2: (Green Lines) Go down further for the next day or to and reach 985-990 for a close (it could go down further and still close above 985 to be valid). Then hit ~1020 shake a few shorts that believe 1000 level has cracked and proceed into 950's.
Scenario 3: That's your opinion and I would like to know 
Here comes the updated chart. (Click to Enlarge)
Good luck! and don't forget to follow me on:
Twitter ( http://twitter.com/investingfreak ) or Stocktwits ( http://www.stocktwits.com/u/investingfreak )
For the latest live commentary.
-K
Is Dow Jones ready to recover?
Almost a Month ago I wrote a post about how the dow had yet to bottom. See: The Dow Jones Industrial Index has not yet bottomed ,at that time the index was at 11,842. A week later I followed up with a prediction that the Dow Jones Industrial would bottom at 10,800 (See:Prediction: Dow Jones Industrial bottoms at 10,800.)
On July 15,2008 the Dow Jones Index fell to 10,827 to make a new 52-week low. That new low came very close to my prediction and soon after it began rebounding. Since the weekend came and I found some time to go and revisit the chart for the dow I now think that the index has bottomed out and should begin to climb.
I believe the market will begin recovering because of a few reasons.
1. 10,800 is a very strong support zone going back to 2006
2. Oil prices have recently fallen from $146 to $128 (maybe that bubble is deflating)
3. The chart shows that the sellers are moving out and more buyers are beginning to take over (green and red lines almost crossing. Green is buyers, red is sellers)
4. At the end of the chart is the amount of money being put in the market. Since mid May it was in a downtrend which meant people were taking money out of the market and now it has broken out of the trend.
As you will see in the chart below however, today's action is within the downturn trend line and it needs to close above 11,500 or we might not have hit recovery period just yet.
Without further adieu i present to you... the Dow Jones Industrial Recovery Chart.
At this point i have invested in stock symbol (DDM) which has the top 30 Dow Jones Companies.
It goes mostly parallel to the Dow Jones Industrial Index. You can check out my current holdings at my Covestor page.
If you have any comments feel free to post them.