Posted by K
on October 02, 2009
I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM
It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th ”S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable.” ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)
We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.) When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a “Kicker Bullish“.
That deserved its own post entitled “$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range… which way will it Break?” Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.
The final blog post was written and titled “The One Day Rally Is Over” In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn’t satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks. The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy. With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.
On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points. the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
Have a good one,
Posted by K
on September 13, 2009
Well one last time revisiting my latest predictions since august 27th.
Fake Correction? Check (August 27-Sept 2nd)
Mini Recovery? Check (Sept 3rd to Sept 11th)
Major Correction? In Progress (Sept 14th to … )
Check the attached Updated chart. (Click To Enlarge)
The Orange Line Scenario Happened for the most part except the fakeout below a trend line (circled above)
From the Sept 1 Blogpost:
Scenario 1: (Orange Lines) Bounce back the next 5 days to reach possible 1040 then drop back to 1000’s and head lower going into October.
I am 2/3 so far looking for a full 100% return on my prediction.
Have a good one.
Posted by K
on July 19, 2008
Almost a Month ago I wrote a post about how the dow had yet to bottom. See: The Dow Jones Industrial Index has not yet bottomed ,at that time the index was at 11,842. A week later I followed up with a prediction that the Dow Jones Industrial would bottom at 10,800 (See:Prediction: Dow Jones Industrial bottoms at 10,800.)
On July 15,2008 the Dow Jones Index fell to 10,827 to make a new 52-week low. That new low came very close to my prediction and soon after it began rebounding. Since the weekend came and I found some time to go and revisit the chart for the dow I now think that the index has bottomed out and should begin to climb.
I believe the market will begin recovering because of a few reasons.
1. 10,800 is a very strong support zone going back to 2006
2. Oil prices have recently fallen from $146 to $128 (maybe that bubble is deflating)
3. The chart shows that the sellers are moving out and more buyers are beginning to take over (green and red lines almost crossing. Green is buyers, red is sellers)
4. At the end of the chart is the amount of money being put in the market. Since mid May it was in a downtrend which meant people were taking money out of the market and now it has broken out of the trend.
As you will see in the chart below however, today’s action is within the downturn trend line and it needs to close above 11,500 or we might not have hit recovery period just yet.
Without further adieu i present to you… the Dow Jones Industrial Recovery Chart.
At this point i have invested in stock symbol (DDM) which has the top 30 Dow Jones Companies.
It goes mostly parallel to the Dow Jones Industrial Index. You can check out my current holdings at my Covestor page.
If you have any comments feel free to post them.
Posted by K
on June 30, 2008
From the way the market has been swinging lately even with any recovery time, the dow jones industrial has yet to bottom a week after i wrote about how it had not bottomed. Over 500 points down later i still think the dow jones industrial has a long ways to go (with some rallies in between obviously). I feel like I am too optimistic by calling a bottom at 10,800 because if President Bush and his best friend Dick Cheney start a war in Iran my bottom call will look stupid.
And here is an updated chart.