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A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

Posted by Investing Freak on October 02, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post  on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM

It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th  “S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable.” ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)

We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.)  When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a “Kicker Bullish“.
That deserved its own post entitled “$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range… which way will it Break?” Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.

The final blog post was written and titled “The One Day Rally Is Over” In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn’t satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks.  The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy.  With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.

On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points.  the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
A-week-in-review
Have a good one,
-K

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S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doeable.

Posted by Investing Freak on September 25, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

On September 23rd at 9:24Pm I wrote the following prediction on Twitter.

Prediction Alert: $SPX 1035 By Oct 1st9:24 PM Sep 23rd from web

I made that prediction based on a few trend lines I was watching that had begun to break down. This is from September 16th. it took then 1 full week of the SPX moving along that trendline before finally breaking below.  (Click To Enlarge)
spx-risingwedge-sept16-09

The next day my system began throwing out SELL alerts and that confirmed my bearish case. I acted upon a few of the alerts and am happy to say that so far they are green.
Here are the alerts for the Major indices.

sell-92409
In my previous post I was expecting the correction to start 10 days earlier than it actually did and that post now stands at 67% accuracy.
Today S&P Closed at 1044. Will it close at or below 1035 by October 1st?  I believe it will, what about you.

Have a good Weekend and check out the rest of the signals by clicking above on the “Current Picks” Tab.

-K

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8-20-2009.. another repeat of 7-13-2009 ?

Posted by Investing Freak on August 21, 2009
General / 1 Comment

If you have been following my current picks page you might have noticed that most of the symbols received buy signals on 7-13-2009 which is when the March rally was coming to a correction but then bounced. Will we have another case of this with 8-20-2009?
I was hoping we wouldn’t that is why I posted those charts yesterday thinking  we had topped. Well my automated strategy was saying otherwise and I completely Ignored it.

Normally I would just update the current picks page but this time around I have decided to make a blog post.
———-

Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)

Symbol

Buy Date

Sell Date

$SPX

8-20-2009

$INDU

8-20-2009

$COMPX

8-20-2009

QQQQ

8-20-2009

IWM

8-20-2009

SPY

8-20-2009

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)

Symbol

Buy Date

Sell Date

IYR

8-21-2009

AAPL

8-20-2009

DRYS

8-14-2009

SDS

8-20-2009

SRS

8-20-2009

SSO

8-20-2009

SKF

8-20-2009

UYG

8-20-2009

URE

8-21-2009

JNK

8-21-2009

HYG

8-7-2009

REW

8-20-2009

QID

8-20-2009

QLD

8-20-2009

XLF

8-20-2009

DIG

8-20-2009

DUG

8-20-2009

SMN

8-20-2009

VXX

8-19-2009

The VIX  ETF signaled a sell before the rest of the signals came in the following day. That is interesting.

-K

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Current Picks Page Updated

Posted by Investing Freak on July 18, 2009
General / Comments Off on Current Picks Page Updated

As you might or might not have been aware. I have a tab on my page with a select group of symbols that I throw up on my strategy and post signals every weekend.

I have been away for the past 3 weeks so I haven’t been able to update it.

Click the link below to go to the page
http://investingfreak.com/current-picks/

Have a good weekend.

-K

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Investing Freak is on Twitter

Posted by Investing Freak on June 21, 2009
General / Comments Off on Investing Freak is on Twitter

I do realize that I don’t post at regular intervals but now I have set up a twitter account for the site where i can write down quick thoughts that aren’t worth making a blog post about.
I hope those of you that have twitter can follow.
http://twitter.com/investingfreak

Other than that I will be taking a break until end of July by which time I hope to have some new posts to put up.
Take care.

-K

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Two picks: AIB and AMD

Posted by Kamil on May 18, 2009
General / Comments Off on Two picks: AIB and AMD

This is my first blog post here. As a friendly note, I assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Do not forget, this website is solely for entertainment purpose only.

Today the trading day started with generally high buying demand and ended the same. My two picks for today are: AIB and AMD.

Company Buy Date Sell Date Buy Price Sell Price Gain/Loss
AMD 5/18/09 $4.1399
AIB 5/18/09 $2.89

All indicators aside, I think AIB is one of the financials that is undervalued. According to Zacks.com, in its first quarter trading update, AIB “announced that operating profits before bad debt provisions were higher than the year-ago quarter, reflecting strong performance of its Capital Markets and Global Treasury divisions.” That not to say that they do not have problems- they still experience declines in operating profits, net interest margins shrink, etc. The point is not many institutions are problem-less. As of the close today, the stock is at $2.90 so it is still a penny stock. Most likely it will be a longer term play for me.


AMD is a pure technical play. It has a major support somewhere between $4.07 and $4.12 (as indicated on the graph below). I bought it at $4.1399 hoping that it will break its trend of fluctuating and find its way up. It did surge, but not as high as I was expecting. The bears and bulls are still fighting. Depending on pre-market, I will most likely sell this stock in order to break even (including commissions).

amd-5-18-09

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Stock Alerts of the Week April 27 – May 1 2009

Posted by Investing Freak on May 03, 2009
General / Comments Off on Stock Alerts of the Week April 27 – May 1 2009

As I stated in my latest blog post I wanted to begin giving stock picks based on my trading system.
I have created a page above with all the picks and wouldn’t mind people asking for symbols to put on watch list.

I will also try to post a week in review with the signals given out for the week.
Here are the picks for April 27 to May 1st 2009

Symbol

Buy Date

Buy Price

Sell Date

Sell Price

$BKX

4-27-2009

34.54

BAC

5-1-2009

8.84

DRYS

4-30-2009

6.72

ICE

4-29-2009

84.14

ING

4-29-2009

8.34

UNG

5-1-2009

13.72

ICO

4-29-2009

1.90

As always these are picks but I am not responsible for any financial losses you make following these picks. I wouldn’t mind a share of your gains though.

-K

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SKF down to earth ready to refuel?

Posted by Investing Freak on March 16, 2009
General / 1 Comment

On Friday March 6th I made a new blog post calling SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought.

Now, 10 days later I want to put my opinion down in writing.  SKF went from over $260 to $126 (so far) that is more than 50% off (around $13.40/day for past 10 days).
When I first posted my opinion i was being generous and looking at $182-$186 for the move down to earth.
There was an important fib retracement at $155 and one at $120.

Being a recent fib retracement follower I have a position in the $150-155 range, toady SKF didn’t go as low as $120 or i would have doubled down.
If this is the short term bottom for SKF the  move up seems to hit $213, I am not good with timing the market with dates so i don’t want to give misleading info.

to recap.. SKF trying to refuel? Buy at $155 or $120 with a target at $213

I am including a visual as always (Click to enlarge)

skf-1003bb-march162009
Disclosure: As i stated in my post I have a position at $150’s range and was looking to double it at $120.

-K

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SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought?

Posted by Investing Freak on March 06, 2009
General / 3 Comments

I hope you saw my post about my February performance. Most of my gains were thanks to shorting the financial sector via SKF.

I have still kept an eye on the ETF after selling it and is now is extremely overbought on many levels. I had a target of $250-255 for it but I did not hold my shares past $200. Now that my target has been reached I am looking for SKF to come back down to earth,  I am looking for at least $182-186 range.

With the market crashing down so fast there is not much incentive to go more short as I am sure SEC has plans for a no shorting rule or at least something to stop the bleeding.  That concludes this post and I will rest my case by providing you the chart which I am basing my case on.

Below I am attaching a chart showing the RSI being overbought but also SKF itself going over the Bollinger bands that I use. 
If you are looking to buy into SKF (besides trading it for quick scalps) then either stay away from it or just take the chart into consideration.    (Click to Enlarge)

skf-1003bb-march062009

As always, I merely post my opinions on here so I am not responsible for anyone’s financial decisions.

Have a good day,
-K

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UYG short term bounce next week?

Posted by Investing Freak on February 20, 2009
General / Comments Off on UYG short term bounce next week?

If you looked at my previous post I called for a break of support for S&P 500.

I didnt really set a target below but Matt Trivisonno had called this low back in October.

 768.67 – Coming Soon to a Screen Near You  … a screen about 18 inches in front of your face that is. 768.67 was the S&P 500 intra-day low on October 10, 2002. That was the day that the last bear market ended.

Since that Call was made almost 5 months ago and things have gotten even worse now.. I don’t think the bear market will end here.

The interesting stock of the day is UYG
I have been looking at Fibonacci numbers lately and UYG has 2 targets which it hit.    One was at $2.39 and the otheer at $1.95.
I loaded up at 2.43 with an idea of doubling down at 1.95 but missed the the boat.
      If 1.95 is really a reversal zone there are a few projected upside targets.  Probably strongest resistance will be at
$2.61  (38.2% fib value)
$3.05  (61.8% fib value) also that would fill the gap-down UYG had on February 17  which could mean UYG then is free to begin another leg down to -zero-.
      If i were to be bullish on this ETF (which I am not at the moment)  other resistances above are $3.37  and the extreme $4.29.  I do not see these last 2 prices near term however.

Here is the chart to show you what I am looking at. Note: projected upside values are not shown.  (Click to Enlarge)

uyg-fib-retracement-feb20-2009

Sources:
Matt Trivisonno (768.67-Coming Soon to a Screen Near You)

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