October

TED Target reached: Increasing short positions.

Posted by Investing Freak on November 19, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on TED Target reached: Increasing short positions.

Here we go again.
On September 28 I stated the following:

The TED Spread which measures the general risk in the economy has been rising the last couple of weeks. today alone it rose 5.42% which means interbank loans are now riskier.  This is still not significant enough and I would like to see another 33% increase in the TED before I really put a lot of my sidelined money on the short side.

On the 28th TED was at around 0.195  so a 33% move would put the TED at around 0.26 and today TED closed at 0.262 which satisfies my reasoning for going short.

On October 27th TED was in an Ascending Channel and also stated that a higher TED spread would mean that a major market correction is underway as banks are raising loan rates between eachother. Rising rates means there will be some major trouble in at least the financial sector which allocates 15% of the S&P Index.

Here is the latest Chart of the TED showing the channel that has been broken.  (Click To Enlarge)

ted-11192009

Another Blogger has picked up on the TED and here is Daneric’s TED Chart.
Finally keep in mind that the current TED is still far below the average TED which is at around 0.50 (50 basis points).  We’re halfway there and its good to catch onto this risk indicator before CNBC does.

I will add shorts via options and inverse ETF’s very soon but always use my opinions as a viewpoint and not investment advice. Everyone has different risk tolerances.

Happy Trading,  K

 

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S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doeable.

Posted by Investing Freak on September 25, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

On September 23rd at 9:24Pm I wrote the following prediction on Twitter.

Prediction Alert: $SPX 1035 By Oct 1st9:24 PM Sep 23rd from web

I made that prediction based on a few trend lines I was watching that had begun to break down. This is from September 16th. it took then 1 full week of the SPX moving along that trendline before finally breaking below.  (Click To Enlarge)
spx-risingwedge-sept16-09

The next day my system began throwing out SELL alerts and that confirmed my bearish case. I acted upon a few of the alerts and am happy to say that so far they are green.
Here are the alerts for the Major indices.

sell-92409
In my previous post I was expecting the correction to start 10 days earlier than it actually did and that post now stands at 67% accuracy.
Today S&P Closed at 1044. Will it close at or below 1035 by October 1st?  I believe it will, what about you.

Have a good Weekend and check out the rest of the signals by clicking above on the “Current Picks” Tab.

-K

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UYG short term bounce next week?

Posted by Investing Freak on February 20, 2009
General / Comments Off on UYG short term bounce next week?

If you looked at my previous post I called for a break of support for S&P 500.

I didnt really set a target below but Matt Trivisonno had called this low back in October.

 768.67 – Coming Soon to a Screen Near You  … a screen about 18 inches in front of your face that is. 768.67 was the S&P 500 intra-day low on October 10, 2002. That was the day that the last bear market ended.

Since that Call was made almost 5 months ago and things have gotten even worse now.. I don’t think the bear market will end here.

The interesting stock of the day is UYG
I have been looking at Fibonacci numbers lately and UYG has 2 targets which it hit.    One was at $2.39 and the otheer at $1.95.
I loaded up at 2.43 with an idea of doubling down at 1.95 but missed the the boat.
      If 1.95 is really a reversal zone there are a few projected upside targets.  Probably strongest resistance will be at
$2.61  (38.2% fib value)
$3.05  (61.8% fib value) also that would fill the gap-down UYG had on February 17  which could mean UYG then is free to begin another leg down to -zero-.
      If i were to be bullish on this ETF (which I am not at the moment)  other resistances above are $3.37  and the extreme $4.29.  I do not see these last 2 prices near term however.

Here is the chart to show you what I am looking at. Note: projected upside values are not shown.  (Click to Enlarge)

uyg-fib-retracement-feb20-2009

Sources:
Matt Trivisonno (768.67-Coming Soon to a Screen Near You)

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