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Mini Correction, Mini Recovery Then Massive Correction?

Posted by Investing Freak on September 01, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Mini Correction, Mini Recovery Then Massive Correction?

As I posted a while back, (See the “Fake Correction Followed By Fake Rally?” article if you missed it) the $SPX (The S&P 500 Index) has nicely corrected to satisfy me that there will be another move up 20-40 points to shake off more bears and when they are nearly all out (If market makes a higher high it will be seen as very bullish) it will have a massive correction to trap bulls and make bears cry for getting out too quickly.

I will be revisiting the charts I drew in the previous article mentioned above. Let’s start with the closer look in the past 3 days.
I was waiting for the SPX to break either the red or the green line and close below it. Well yesterday it did just that and that was the first clue as to where we were heading today.
The blue arrows are there to just demonstrate the Support line and where yesterday’s close was.  Grey line was my prediction for the next 2 weeks or so but it was defied by the market as it tanked lower and lower.    (Click to Enlarge)

spxsept1

Second chart is the long term view of things and 2 possible outcomes that this investing freak sees realistic.
Scenario 1: (Orange Lines) Bounce back the next 5 days to reach possible 1040 (ADP Nonfarm Employment change tomorrow morning so this could happen if it “surprises”)  then drop back to 1000’s and head lower going into October.
Scenario 2: (Green Lines) Go down further for the next day or to and reach 985-990 for a close (it could go down further and still close above 985 to be valid). Then hit ~1020 shake a few shorts that believe 1000 level has cracked and proceed into 950’s.
Scenario 3:  That’s your opinion and I would like to know 🙂
Here comes the updated chart. (Click to Enlarge)
spx-sep1-09 Good luck! and don’t forget to follow me on:
Twitter ( http://twitter.com/investingfreak )  or  Stocktwits ( http://www.stocktwits.com/u/investingfreak )
For the latest live commentary.

-K

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Is the end (of this prolonged rally) Finally Here?

Posted by Investing Freak on August 20, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Is the end (of this prolonged rally) Finally Here?

Whether you have been a bull or a bear since March you have to be worried about what will happen from here.
Bulls might lose if market goes down and corrects itself, Bears might keep losing money being short (unless they hedge then they are neutral players).

Here is a chart of the S&P futures that I found interesting how it topped around 3:31Pm at exactly the first Pivot Resistance (R1) or 1007.75.  It’s been downhill from there so far.

Have we finally reached the top?

Have we finally reached the turning Point? (Click to Enlarge)

As I write this the ticker is heading towards 997.75 which is the first support for Friday.
UPDATE: WE HAVE HIT the first support line of 997.75 and might bounce or crash through.

Update #2: here I am 8 hours later and the futures have made a 360 degree turn. They now hit R1 (red line) of 1011.25.

es-topped-82009-2

What do you think? I am also long the Volatility Index (VIX) Via September 40 calls (got long today) because I think we are entering volatile markets again and that would be great.

-K

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