InvestingFreak » Jones

The Perfectly Timed Vacation

Sun, 08 Aug 2010 18:31:23 +0000

It's been six weeks and the stockless and unwired vacation has wound down. To my surprise I see that BP bottomed right when I covered my July puts at a profit and since its nearly 39% up. Euro went from 1.22's to 1.33's and so on. Its time for me to find the reigns and take control of the market once more.

It will be a week or two until I get my trading groove on but for now i've updated the Current Pick's page on top.
here are the main indices.

Market Indices

Symbol	Description	Buy Date	Sell Date
$SPX	S&P 500 INDEX	7-7-2010
SPY	SPDR S&P 500 ETF	7-7-2010
$INDU	Dow Jones Industrial Average	7-7-2010
$COMPX	NASDAQ Composite	7-8-2010
QQQQ	PowerShares QQQ (ETF)	7-8-2010
IWM	iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF)		8-6-2010

Hope its been a profitable 100 point market move for my fellow readers and here's to more fun swings to come.

-K

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Germany Tries to save the day AGAIN -2008 Part 2 Begins-

Wed, 19 May 2010 01:58:10 +0000

So today Germany's Merkel decided to pull a good trick over the nekkid shorts.

There is much surprise that the German government has declared a ban on naked short selling, including CDS, as of midnight tonight, with no prior notice or the niceties demanded by the banks when government chooses to act. This action seems to have perturbed some and confused many.

Germany is claiming that this move will stop the Speculators

The ban will also apply to naked short selling in shares of 10 banks and insurers that will last until March 31, 2011, German financial regulator BaFin said today in an e-mailed statement. The step was needed because of “exceptional volatility” in euro-area bonds, the regulator said.

HMMM Where oh Where Have I heard this story before... Oh Yeahh.. September 20, 2008 German regulator bans short-selling in financial stocks

Germany on Saturday halted short-selling in financial shares, when investors borrow company stock to sell it, following the example of Britain and the United States. The ban affects 11 shares including those of AAreal Bank, Allianz, AMB Generali, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Postbank, Hannover Re, Hypo Real Estate, MLP and Munich Re. BaFin, said short sales were banned with immediate effect until the end of the year, underscoring that they could lead to huge losses in the current global financial turmoil.

Roll Back to May 18, 2010....

Allianz SE, Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG, Deutsche Boerse AG, Deutsche Postbank AG, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs AG, Hannover Rueckversicherungs AG, Generali Deutschland Holding AG, MLP AG and Aareal Bank AG are covered by the short-selling ban. “Massive” short-selling was leading to excessive price movements which “could endanger the stability of the entire financial system,” BaFin said in the statement.

I wonder what happened last time they tried protecting the banks? Well I will examine it below but what's that I hear you say? This Time is Different? It sure is!!
During the last Crisis we had Lehman go bankrupt and Bear Stearns collapse. Two years later we don't have any financial institutions going down. We Have Countries that are crumbling and their "shareholders" (taxpayers and citizens) revolting. Greece is Bear Stearns because of the trillion dollar bailout and Portugal might as well become Lehman because unless Europe is willing to print a trillion for every country they bail (which I know they can if they want) and euro dropping to parity and beyond with the dollar.... someone will have to hold the bankruptcy stick.

Anyways Lets look at how the last short selling ban affected the financial institutions they tried to protect.

I'm using Dow Jones Germany Index for a Benchmark as to compare returns.

Company	Sept to Dec 2008	May 2010 – March 2011
Dow Jones Germany Index (USD) DEDOWD	-23%	TO
Allianz SE AVL	-30%	BE
Aareal Bank AG ARL	-64%	FILLED
Commerzbank AG CBK	-61%	OUT
Deutsche Bank AG DBK	-50%	ON
Deutsche Boerse AG DB1	-15%	APRIL
Deutsche Postbank AG DPB	-65%	2011
Hannover Rueckversicherung AG HNR1	-18%	WHEN
MLP AG MLP	-26%	BAN
Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Ges. AG MUV2	+7%	ENDS

Oh myyyyyy Germany Saved the day as speculators were on the sidelines watching and missing out on 18 to 65% gains (its what you do when you short and if you're not familiar just Google "selling stocks short")

The Previous ban was 3 months and the protected stocks crashed an average of 46%. The New Ban will be around 11 months and will crash how much? It will crash aplenty so I will not make an exact percentage call on this one. But I will be doing one thing this time around though. I'm putting German Financials on a Bank Watch List that I will check back on April 1st 2011.

Make plenty of money these next few weeks even if my blogging is sporiadic at best. (Offline life always comes first)

-K

Weekly Picks- Buy:IYR,XLF Sell:DRYS,SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 00:37:35 +0000

This week was mostly a reversal of calls made last week, the only new call is a Sell on DRYS.
When the week moves in a range (market Zig Zagged 30 points up and down) they are called False Signals because my system is a trending one.
Nobody has called me out on my calls but this is the first back to back week that signals have reversed in my blogging days so I thought I'd clear the air .

I will be introducing a new Feature this week. A chart to accompany each call. The charts are 3 months and they show all signals that might have occurred during that time-frame.
Red Dots means SELL and Green dots signal BUY. Simple enough? Great Let's get started.

Here's a look at SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Chart
(Click to Enlarge, Same goes for the rest of the charts)

Upgrades

IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $52.23

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $16.74

Downgrades

DRYS DryShips Inc.
downgraded to SELL on Apr 19 at $6.20

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 21 at $26.98

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $17.32

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 23 at $32.37

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $18.27

Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!

-K

Weekly Picks- Buy:SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX Sell:IYR,XLF

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 02:42:26 +0000

The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.

Upgrades

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $29.18 (SELL Apr 05 at $28.60)

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $18.11 (SELL Feb 16 at $24.17)

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $34.01 (SELL Mar 29 at $34.95)

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $19.97 (SELL Feb 11 at $31.40)

Downgrades

IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $50.24 (BUY Apr 05 at $51.05)

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $16.36 (BUY Feb 16 at $14.34)

Notes:
URE and UYG are off my list after the splits because of charting issues.

Have a good weekend.

-K

Are Greek stocks ready for a comeback?

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 01:58:45 +0000

With all the recent bailout talks for Greece it might seem like a good time to short Greek assets right? No!
The risk rewards at this point have been cut in half. I will display a chart below of the Dow Jones Greece Stock Index $GRDOW.
Here is a 3 year chart with no comments. (Click to Enlarge)

Here is the 1.5Year chart showing a different story.
You see... Greece did hit bottom at the same time as the entire market did as well back in March of 2009 BUT Greece topped out in October of 2009 and started its next leg down.

From March-October 2009 the index rose from 124.17 to 267.40!
Thats 143.23 point gain or 115% Gain in 8 months... and here we are complaining that our market has gone up 75% and is overdue for a correction.
Now as we can see from the chart below Greece then took a turn from 267.40 to 150.84 in February of 2010 (and it might be making a lower low coming up if the bailout saga isn't fully discounted yet) the 116.56 point drop from the October 2009 peak to the temporary February 2010 bottom is a 43.5% correction!

Back to my original question... now do you see why I said no to shorting the Greeks? 44% Correction has already occurred and even if there is another 150 points to the downside (another 50% or so) the risk reward is no longer there. I might be looking to buy up some Greek Gyros or Banks soon to play. One such play is National Bank of Greece (NBG)
Here is the chart for NBG to compare to the entire index. Also Notice the Recent Volume (Click to Enlarge)

Thats all for tonight folks. Have a good night and a good trading day tomorrow.

-K

Is Dow Jones ready to recover?

Sat, 19 Jul 2008 04:08:04 +0000

Almost a Month ago I wrote a post about how the dow had yet to bottom. See: The Dow Jones Industrial Index has not yet bottomed ,at that time the index was at 11,842. A week later I followed up with a prediction that the Dow Jones Industrial would bottom at 10,800 (See:Prediction: Dow Jones Industrial bottoms at 10,800.)

On July 15,2008 the Dow Jones Index fell to 10,827 to make a new 52-week low. That new low came very close to my prediction and soon after it began rebounding. Since the weekend came and I found some time to go and revisit the chart for the dow I now think that the index has bottomed out and should begin to climb.

I believe the market will begin recovering because of a few reasons.
1. 10,800 is a very strong support zone going back to 2006
2. Oil prices have recently fallen from $146 to $128 (maybe that bubble is deflating)
3. The chart shows that the sellers are moving out and more buyers are beginning to take over (green and red lines almost crossing. Green is buyers, red is sellers)
4. At the end of the chart is the amount of money being put in the market. Since mid May it was in a downtrend which meant people were taking money out of the market and now it has broken out of the trend.

As you will see in the chart below however, today's action is within the downturn trend line and it needs to close above 11,500 or we might not have hit recovery period just yet.

Without further adieu i present to you... the Dow Jones Industrial Recovery Chart.

At this point i have invested in stock symbol (DDM) which has the top 30 Dow Jones Companies.
It goes mostly parallel to the Dow Jones Industrial Index. You can check out my current holdings at my Covestor page.
If you have any comments feel free to post them.