Mother Nature Shorts the Market: Volcano errupts, Cramer Says the Recovery is Real
Mother nature is fed up with the mountainous stock market climb and the Icelandic Volcano has finally put a top to it.
There have been many canceled flights across Europe and airliners will be feeling the effects of the volcano for at least a quarter if not more. This is one of those news items that is still not priced into the market (at least wasn't as of 4pm closing bell) so shorting an international Airliner should yield results (British Airways or AirFrance perhaps).
This is not just a minor news article as many airports have yet to close but will have to as the ash travels farther from its origin. According to BBC "Such a large eruption... would have the potential to severely affect air travel at high northern latitudes for six months or more. "In relation to the current eruption, it is worth noting that the last eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull lasted more than 12 months."
This could be a major win for global warming activists because it might cool us down according to an article in the Guardian that states "The dust can also help reduce global warming. The effect of the Iceland ash cloud will be small but larger eruptions help to cool the planet as they reflect sunlight back into space. The 1815 eruption of Mt Tambora in Indonesia produced so much volcanic ash that it triggered the "year without a summer" that brought widespread failure of harvests across Europe, famine and economic collapse."
Now that we established Mother nature's attempt to stagnate or destroy the economy lets turn our heads to the lovely Jim Cramer who tells us that the Recovery Is Real!
"Maybe this time, the recovery is better, Maybe it's healthier and more sustaining. Maybe this time we've got it right, not wrong, and Maybe the recovery will be responsible and Maybe fueled by a longer-term health in the consumer, and Maybe it will not be turbocharged bad lending." Now I added a few more maybes on my own to emphasize that Maybe the recovery is real and Maybe Cramer is a genius.
We know mother nature is short and Cramer is long. Lets take a look at some economic data domestically and around the world.
US Economy:
March Foreclosure Activity Highest on Record (Calculated Risk)
7 million households are behind on their mortgages. Now that the worst of the financial crisis appears to be over, banks are finally stepping up the foreclosure process again. Foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in March, an increase of nearly 19 percent from the previous month, an increase of nearly 8 percent from March 2009 and the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in January 2005.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 484,000 (The Big Picture)
Today’s Unemployment Insurance claims “unexpectedly” spiked to 484k vs. a 440k consensus, and were 24k higher than last week. Lets get to the excuses as to why the weekly claims for unemployment insurance are not dropping as quickly as everyone would like. "A Labor Department economist said this latest rise can be pegged to lag effects from the spring holidays, including Easter and Cesar Chavez Day, which is celebrated in worker-heavy California." If that puts a dent in employment then here are the Holidays: Thanksgiving, Christmas, MLK Jr. Day, snow storms, Easter, Cesar Chavez. Upcoming next week are Administrative Professionals Day and Take Your Children to Work Day, so fear not when UI claims breach 500k again.
Empire Manufacturing Index Soars (Econompic)
A gauge of manufacturing in New York State rose to a six-month high in April as new orders advanced and employment continued to improve, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Thursday. The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index rose to 31.86 in April, the highest since October and up from 22.86 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a figure of 24.
World Economy:
Greece On Verge Of Activating Rescue Package (Zero Hedge)
A senior Greek Finance Ministry official told Market News that With the call for a meeting today, Greece is seeking to iron out “immediately” exactly what the details of the joint EMU-IMF plan will be, and what fiscal, macroeconomic and other conditions will be imposed on Greece in exchange for the aid. Last weekend Greece issued $2.1 billion in Bills, which auction by the way bankingnews.gr recently reported was a scam, with half the bids being fake!
Israel accuses Syria of arming Hezbollah(AFP)
Israeli President Shimon Peres on Tuesday accused Syria of supplying Scud missiles to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah while publicly talking peace.
"Syria claims it wants peace while at the same time it delivers Scuds to Hezbollah whose only goal is to threaten the state of Israel," Peres told public radio.
Have a good night.
-K
Key Catalysts for the week
Earnings season for Q1 will kick off w/AA coming Mon after the close. PKX (S Korean steel company) will hit overnight on Mon w/a call on Tues morning. There will be a bunch of tech results. For the semis, watch for INTC and LLTC on Tues, ASML on Wed, and AMD, FCS on Thurs. In the internets, GOOG kicks things off Thurs night. JPM is the first financial earnings of the season (Wed morning) and will be followed by PBCT(Thurs night) and BAC, FHN (Fri morning). GE reports Fri morning also.
· Credit card companies will release their mastertrust #s on Thurs and the latest short interest stats hit on Mon after the bell.
· Congress comes back into session on Mon, w/the focus being on Dodd’s financial regulatory reform bill.
· China’s president is traveling to the US on Mon for a nuclear summit in Washington (a meeting w/Obama is scheduled for Mon). There could be more headlines on Iranian sanctions coming out of this Washington summit. For the rest read Business Insider.
NBER: "Premature" to Call end of Recession
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met at the organization’s headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 8, 2010. The committee reviewed the most recent data for all indicators relevant to the determination of a possible date of the trough in economic activity marking the end of the recession that began in December 2007. The trough date would identify the end of contraction and the beginning of expansion. Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature. Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months. Read More at Calculated Risk
VIX plumbs new low as other indicators edge closer to extremes
The volatility index ($VIX) dropped to another new low on its series of waves down since late 2008/early 2009, meaning that investors shed yet more fear to place yet less value on premium protecting against volatility. This places it at risk of a snapback along with a stock market pullback. At the same time, other indicators (shown lower down) also tell the story of the market at the edge of cresting. For Charts go to ChartLines
Feature: Check out our new Live Chat.
We have added another tab to the top of the page and for now it includes a chat where even guests can join and have discussions. Chat will have at least a few people during market hours and the more the merrier as it catches on. Lets have some lively conversations and stock sharing through it. Check out our Live Chat.
Have a good night,
-K
Are Greek stocks ready for a comeback?
With all the recent bailout talks for Greece it might seem like a good time to short Greek assets right? No!
The risk rewards at this point have been cut in half. I will display a chart below of the Dow Jones Greece Stock Index $GRDOW.
Here is a 3 year chart with no comments. (Click to Enlarge)
Here is the 1.5Year chart showing a different story.
You see... Greece did hit bottom at the same time as the entire market did as well back in March of 2009 BUT Greece topped out in October of 2009 and started its next leg down.
From March-October 2009 the index rose from 124.17 to 267.40!
Thats 143.23 point gain or 115% Gain in 8 months... and here we are complaining that our market has gone up 75% and is overdue for a correction.
Now as we can see from the chart below Greece then took a turn from 267.40 to 150.84 in February of 2010 (and it might be making a lower low coming up if the bailout saga isn't fully discounted yet) the 116.56 point drop from the October 2009 peak to the temporary February 2010 bottom is a 43.5% correction!
Back to my original question... now do you see why I said no to shorting the Greeks? 44% Correction has already occurred and even if there is another 150 points to the downside (another 50% or so) the risk reward is no longer there. I might be looking to buy up some Greek Gyros or Banks soon to play. One such play is National Bank of Greece (NBG)
Here is the chart for NBG to compare to the entire index. Also Notice the Recent Volume (Click to Enlarge)
Thats all for tonight folks. Have a good night and a good trading day tomorrow.
-K
Nightly Recap 3-30-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +11.56 (10,907.42)
S&P -0.05 (1,173.27)
Nasdaq +6.33 (2,410.69)
____________
Disclaimer:
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
___________
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Downtown New York Office Vacancy Rate Spikes To 9/11 Levels (Zero Hedge)
Bloomberg TV reports that the office vacancy rate in downtown NY has dropped to September 11th levels, and is about to pass 14%.
SPX Struggling at 1180 (The Art Of Trading)
"The SPX has attempted several times to crack thru 1180 and seems to be having trouble. I think it's best to sit in cash or be very nimble if you wanna play the short side. 1150 is very strong support for the SPX and pullbacks there would likely see some solid bounce i imagine. If i had it my way, i'd love to see the indexes pullback for another few more days. As i type this, i am noticing lots of stocks turning deeper into the red yet the indexes are only down slightly. I think CASH IS KING and look to buy stocks on dips!"
Interesting Links:
22 Storms in NE: Winter 2009-2010 Radar Loop (AccuWeather)
Today what could be the last Nor'easter of the season is affecting the Northeastern U.S. It's interesting if you compare the heavy rain area for today's storm with the heavy snow area from this winter, they are very similar. Major storms are continuing to move up the East Coast as they have all season, it's just warmer now so we're seeing rain instead of snow.* These winter storms have dropped 30-40 inches of rain (and liquid snow) in the I-95 corridor, which would normally only receive 20-25 inches over the winter.
That is all for tonight, very boring night link-wise, weather wise and market wise.
Have a Good Night and here's to a more exciting Wednesday.
-K
Nightly Recap 3-25-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +5.06 (10,841.21)
S&P -1.99 (1,165.73)
Nasdaq -1.35 (2,397.41)
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
The Social Security Tipping Point (Econompic)
The bursting of the real estate bubble and the ensuing recession have hurt jobs, home prices and now Social Security.
This year, the system will pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes, an important threshold it was not expected to cross until at least 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The problem, he said, is that payments have risen more than expected during the downturn, because jobs disappeared and people applied for benefits sooner than they had planned. At the same time, the program’s revenue has fallen sharply, because there are fewer paychecks to tax.
The Recession Ans Recovery In Perspective (Minneapolis Fed)
The 2007-2009 recession is widely thought to have ended sometime last summer. How bad was this recession, and how quickly is the economy recovering? How does this recession and recovery compare to previous cycles? Check the Link for interactive Charts.
Ambac to File Bankruptcy ( The Big Picture)
Bond insurer Ambac Financial Group said again that it may seek bankruptcy protection after state regulators took control of some of its most troubled assets.
The news Thursday sent the company’s already devalued stock into a tailspin.
World Economy:
Dell Leaving China In Search Of "Safer Environments" In India (TFTS)
India’s Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, told the Indian press that Dell chairman Michael Dell assured him that Dell was moving $25 billion in factories from China to India. Original motives were cited for environmental concerns. But later details come up as to dell wanting a ’safer environment conductive to enterprise.’”
China Official: "Will not adjust exchange rate" (Calculated Risk)
After meeting with officials at the Treasury and Commerce Departments on Wednesday, China’s deputy commerce minister, Zhong Shan, told reporters, “The Chinese government will not succumb to foreign pressures to adjust our exchange rate."
“It is wrong for the United States to jump to the conclusion that China is manipulating currency from the sheer fact that China is enjoying a trade surplus,” Mr. Zhong told reporters in a meeting at the Chinese Embassy. “Besides, it’s wrong for the United States to press for the appreciation of the renminbi and threaten to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese experts. This is unacceptable to China.”
This is more posturing before the Treasury releases the worldwide currencies report on April 15th that might name China a "currency manipulator".
All Hell To Break Loose: April 15th (Reuters)
U.S. senators have introduced new legislation that threatens China with punitive duties if it fails to lift the value of its currency, boosting pressure on the Obama administration to take action under existing law.
The bipartisan measure, which merges earlier efforts to change the currency law, aims to end what the lawmakers said was Beijing's deliberate efforts to keep the yuan cheap to subsidize exports and tax imports.
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 3-24-2010
Market Summary:
DOW -52.68 (10,836.15)
S&P -6.45 (1,167.72)
Nasdaq -16.48 (2,398.76)
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Durable Goods Jump on Continued Strength in Aircraft (Econompic)
Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods rose for a third consecutive month in February, bolstered by strong demand for commercial aircraft and machinery. The
hope is that continued strength in manufacturing will help sustain the economic recovery.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that orders for durable goods advanced 0.5 percent last month, slightly lower than the 0.7 percent gain that economists had expected.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Chicago Fed) [PDF]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index is a surprisingly good forecaster of economic activity. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index constructed to summarize variation in 85 data series on U.S. economic activity.
New Home Sales Plunge To New All Time Record Low (Zero Hedge)
New home sales drop to a record low adjusted annual rate of 308K. All of the government's housing stabilizing measures are now a disaster, as existing home sales inventory surges to nearly 9 months, not counting the shadow inventory, which is more than double.
World Economy:
China: Sale of residential land temporarily halted (China Daily)
The Ministry of Land and Resources has ordered a temporary ban on the sale of land for housing in a renewed measure to ease soaring real estate prices.
Yun Xiaosu, vice-minister of land and resources, said local authorities should not sell land for residential purposes until this year's housing land supply plan is released in early April.
"Residential land supply will increase and low-income housing projects will top local governments' agendas," Yun said during a video-conference on Monday.
Getting Technical: Trouble Brewing in Europe (Barrons)
News that Portugal's credit rating was downgraded by one of the major ratings agencies sent a shiver across the European Union.
The question on investors' minds is whether this is the start of something bigger or just a contained incident. After all, Greece's problems did not take down global markets.The stock market, however, might have the answer and it is not good. Technical death crosses -- when key short-term moving averages move below longer-term moving averages -- have occurred in several of the troubled markets. Most will agree that the stock market looks forward to events expected to occur perhaps nine months down the road. It is one way we can explain why stocks rallied a year ago when the financial world was in danger of collapse. "We ain't seen nuthin' yet"
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 3-23-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +102.94 (10,888.83)
S&P +8.36 (1,174.17)
Nasdaq +19.84 (2,415.24)
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Existing Home Sales fall further in February (The Mess That Greenspan Made)
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell 0.6 percent in February after a drop of more than 7 percent in January and sales are now at their lowest level in eight months. It's probably best not to make too much of the winter data for existing home sales because it is a very slow time of the year but, the "Months of Supply" metric certainly looks to be going in the wrong direction right now.
What is the Homebuilders Index pricing in? (Investment Postcards)
David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Shedff & Associates, states that his regression analyses show the Homebuilders Index to be pricing in the following:
Housing starts: pricing in a level of 800-900k (versus 575k currently)
Existing home sales: pricing in a level of 5,500k (versus 5,050k)
NAHB Housing Market Index: pricing in a level of 35 versus 15 actual.
Is this the most expensive part of the US stock market?
US Debt Update: 6 Months To Revised Debt Ceiling Breach (Zero Hedge)
As a reminder, the debt limit is $14.3 trillion. We are $1.7 trillion away from the limit. At March's run-rate of about $300 billion per month, the debt ceiling will be breached by October 2010. If somehow the government manages to reduce the monthly issuance to "just" $200 billion, we have eight and a half months until breach, or January 2011.
World Economy:
Spain to join Portugal in issuing Dollar-denominated Bond (Zero Hedge)
Yet more countries are anticipating the Fed finally killing the dollar sooner or later, as Spain now joins Portugal in issuing dollar-denominated bonds. If Europe's most insolvent countries are getting on board of the asset side of the Fed's balance sheet, it can only mean one thing: the odds for the winner of the currency race to the bottom are squarely in favor of the US currency. (K remark: I really see this as a contrary indicator being that there is an imbalance in those countries who are betting on a collapse of the dollar.)
Germany Sets tough terms for EU help for Greece (Reuters)
ermany signaled for the first time on Tuesday that it may accept European financial aid for Greece as a last resort, but only if the IMF is involved and euro zone partners accept tougher budget discipline rules. "The condition for action, as a last resort, is that Greece's financing on the capital markets is exhausted," the official said."Furthermore, it would be necessary for the International Monetary Fund to provide a substantial contribution," he said, stressing there will be no decision on actual aid at the summit.
Interesting Reads:
Jim Rogers Starts Some Short Positions (Market Folly)
Potentially the most notable bit of his conversation was when he said, "I had no shorts for about 15 months so I started putting out some shorts recently. But the fact that I've been putting out shorts means the stock market won't pull back." So, it's interesting to see Rogers fight the current trend. In his mind, it's the right play, but he knows he's going to potentially feel some pain first.
Morning Humor- American And Greek Capitalism Explained (Video) (Zero Hedge)
Explaining US economics (with an emphasis on generally accepted criminal accounting practices).
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 3-22-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +43.91 (10,785.89)
S&P +5.91 (1,165.81)
Nasdaq +20.99 (2,395.40)
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Chicago Fed National Activity Declines in February (Econompic)
The 85 economic indicators that comprise the Chicago Fed's index are drawn from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories. The three month average fell to -0.64 in February from -0.04 in January.
Tomorrow, Tim Geithner Urges End to Fannie and Freddie ‘Ambiguity’ (Bloomberg)
Tim Geithner is set to deliver unwelcome to news to those who play in the public Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) casino. Private gains can no longer be supported by the umbrella of public protection, capital standards must be higher and excessive risk-taking must be appropriately restrained,” Geithner said in testimony prepared for the House Financial Services Committee that was obtained today by Bloomberg News. The hearing is scheduled for tomorrow at 10 a.m. in Washington.
The Pressure on Malls: More Store Closings (Calculated Risk)
"Our outlook for retail properties as a whole is bleak ... we do not foresee a recovery in the retail sector until late 2012 at the earliest." Over the next three fiscal years, 25 percent of our store leases will reach maturity ... E-commerce is 30 percent of our corporate revenue and it’s very profitable ... even in this environment. The Internet and e-commerce have become the focus on our capital investment."
World Economy:
Global Productivity and Unemployment (Econompic)
Producing more by working less is the key to rising living standards, but in the short term there is a tension between efficiency and jobs. America and Europe have managed this trade-off rather differently. America has gone on a diet: it has squeezed extra output from a smaller workforce and suffered a big rise in unemployment as a consequence. Europe, meanwhile, is hoping to burn off the calories in the future. It has opted to contain job losses at the cost of lower productivity.
The Beginning of the End of the Eurozone As We Know It? (Naked Capitalism)
The widely-extolled idea, that the EU would find a way to muddle through the Greece crisis, looks very much in doubt. The pressure has not simply put the rescue of Greece into disarray, but appears to have led to some positions being taken that, if they hold, look likely to lead to the partial dissolution of the monetary union. This development would have far-reaching ramifications which are far from well understood, to put it mildly.
Interesting Reads:
Dear Evil Speculators (The Reformed Broker)
Dear Evil Speculators,As part of our ongoing program designed to render the US stock market completely dysfunctional, we have added an additional tax to be applied toward your investment income as part of the wildly popular Health Care Bill that we recently finagled through into law: * Individuals earning more than $200,000 a year, or couples earning $250,000 or more, would be hit with a 3.8% surcharge on investment income to help pay for the bill.You see, we are fully aware that in just the past decade, you have been slammed twice - 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 - with two of the most brutal bear markets in history - but we just don't care.
Health Care Expenses vs. Life Expectancy (The Big Picture)
A very insightful chart comparing Countries using Life expectancy and Health care spending.
Hedge Fund Ebullio Capital: Down 86.25% In One Month (Market Folly)
By now, many of you may have already heard the startling tale of Lars Steffensen's hedge fund Ebullio Capital Management. For the month of February 2010, they were down a whopping 86.25%. That brought their year to date total return to -95.83%. Immediately, questions swirl in one's head such as 'How did this happen? What kind of risk management did they have in place? How will they recover?' Remarkably, their investor letter had quite a calm tone to it.
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 3-19-2010
Market Summary:
DOW -37.19 (10,741.98)
S&P -5.92 (1,159.90)
Nasdaq -16.87 (2,374.41)
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Leading Economic Indicators Point to Slowing Recovery (Econompic)
The index of U.S. leading indicators rose 0.1 percent in February, the smallest gain in almost a year, pointing to an economy that may expand at a slower pace in the second half of 2010.A pickup in manufacturing in the last half of 2009 that helped spearhead the recovery has prompted companies to slow the pace of job cuts. Stronger economic growth hinges on employment gains that have yet to occur, one reason Federal Reserve policy makers this week kept interest rates near zero.
The Fed must disclose bailout details (Calculated Risk)
The U.S. Court of Appeals in Manhattan ruled today that the Fed must release records of the unprecedented $2 trillion U.S. loan program ... The ruling upholds a decision of a lower-court judge, who in August ordered that the information be released. It will be interesting to see these documents, but it might not be for a few more years.
Goldman Lowers Major Banks' Projected Q1 EPS By 15% (ZeroHege)
World Economy:
German Central Bank Admits that Credit is Created Out of Thin Air (Naked Capitalism)
Germany’s central bank – the Deutsche Bundesbank (German for German Federal Bank) – has admitted in writing that banks create credit out of thin air.As the Bundesbank states in a publication entitled “Money and Monetary Policy”
The high price of failure in North Korea (The Mess That Greenspan Made)
North Korea has executed a senior official blamed for currency reforms that damaged the already ailing economy and potentially affected the succession, a news agency in South Korea reported today.Pak Nam-gi was killed by firing squad last week.
NOTE: I Will not do Weekend Updates of news. Sorry
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 3-17-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +47.69 (10,733.67)
S&P +6.75 (1,166.21)
Nasdaq +11.08 (2,389.09)
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
PPI Is Stabilizing (Econompic)
Wholesale prices fell a larger-than-expected 0.6% in February after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices falling 2.9%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. This is the largest decline since last July. The producer price index has risen 4.4% in the past year, the government said.
437 Retail Store Closings Signal Major Brand Restructuring (RIS)
The spring thaw can't come fast enough for retailers that haven't yet adjusted to a retail landscape populated with bargain hunting shoppers that have limited discretionary spending. Find out which major chains, including Abercrombie & Fitch and Williams-Sonoma, are closing poorly performing stores with leases about to expire, and why one global retailer is exiting the U.S.
Now Bernanke Wants To Eliminate Reserve Requirements Completely (The Economic Collapse)
Banks have always been required to keep a small fraction of the money deposited with them for a reserve, but were allowed to loan out the rest. But now it turns out that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to completely eliminate minimum reserve requirements, which he says "impose costs and distortions on the banking system". At least that is what a footnote to his testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on February 10th says. So is Bernanke actually proposing that banks should be allowed to have no reserves at all?
Interesting Reads:
Tracking a Century of American Eating (Amber Waves)
A century of ERS’s food availability data reveals how the sometimes conflicting, sometimes reinforcing technological, political, social, and economic forces affect the types and amounts of commodities available for consumption. The following examples illustrate some of these forces and their impacts.
The Best 2-day Indicator (Trading SPY) (MarketSci Blog)
MarketSci puts four often used 2-day indicators to the test to see which has been the “best” measure of how overbought/oversold the market was over the last decade.
In Dod We Trust - The Daily Show (Video)
Chris Dodd introduces financial reform legislation and Jon Stewart provides another hilarious clip.
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c |
| In Dodd We Trust | |
Michael Lewis on The Daily Show (Video)
Michael Lewis talks about the financial crisis and subprime mortgages with the Jon Stewart. I love The daily show when they talk about finance.
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c |
| Michael Lewis | |
Have a Good Night
-K