etf

SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought?

Posted by Investing Freak on March 06, 2009
General / 3 Comments

I hope you saw my post about my February performance. Most of my gains were thanks to shorting the financial sector via SKF.

I have still kept an eye on the ETF after selling it and is now is extremely overbought on many levels. I had a target of $250-255 for it but I did not hold my shares past $200. Now that my target has been reached I am looking for SKF to come back down to earth,  I am looking for at least $182-186 range.

With the market crashing down so fast there is not much incentive to go more short as I am sure SEC has plans for a no shorting rule or at least something to stop the bleeding.  That concludes this post and I will rest my case by providing you the chart which I am basing my case on.

Below I am attaching a chart showing the RSI being overbought but also SKF itself going over the Bollinger bands that I use. 
If you are looking to buy into SKF (besides trading it for quick scalps) then either stay away from it or just take the chart into consideration.    (Click to Enlarge)

skf-1003bb-march062009

As always, I merely post my opinions on here so I am not responsible for anyone’s financial decisions.

Have a good day,
-K

Tags: , , , ,

Investing in a Bearish Market

Posted by Investing Freak on August 18, 2008
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

During hard times like the ones we are seeing now with the economy, one thing i am beginning to like is Ultra Short ETF’s. They are basically bets against certain sectors or indexes. There are also ProShares which bet for the market to go up.

One of my latest moves into ETF’s is buying (SKF) Ultrashort Financials on August 14, 2008 . As you can see from the table i have provided (hopefully it displays decent in most readers) I am looking at the Point & Figure Patterns for the Top 40 stocks market cap wise in the financial sector. FRE and FNM are not up at the top but have been talked a lot about in recent news.

Before i get you confused as to what the signals mean I will provide a brief description of each, courtesy of stockcharts.com

  • The double bottom breakdown implies that the buyers who were supporting the price are no longer able to create demand that is more than the supply, and prices are breaking down.
  • A triple bottom breakdown is similar to a double bottom breakdown except that the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down.
  • A double bottom followed by another double bottom, or three bottoms, each lower than the previous is recognized as an descending triple bottom breakdown. The idea is that supply is continuing to outstrip demand on an ongoing basis.
  • A bull trap is a triple top breakout followed by a reversal. The breakout is possibly due to buy stops being hit just above the resistance level, and the quick reversal suggests lower prices ahead.
  • The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.
  • Bullish signal reversed pattern is a series of rising tops and bottoms that finally soaks up all demand and the double bottom breakdown at the end signals that now supply is outstripping demand.

Enjoy the table I have created. As you can see many bearish signals were given on August 13 so I went ahead and bought SKF on Aug 14 at $123.50.

Top Bearish Financials

Symbol

Signal

Date Signal Spotted

FRE

Triple Bottom Breakdown

August 6, 2008

FNM

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 7, 2008

LFC

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 8, 2008

UBB

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 11, 2008

GS

Descending Tripple Bottom Breakdown

August 12, 2008

HBC

Triple Bottom Breakdown

August 13, 2008

JPM

Spread Triple Bottom Breakdown

August 13, 2008

C

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 13, 2008

WFC

Bull Trap

August 13, 2008

AIG

Bearish Triangle

August 13, 2008

BBD

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 13, 2008

MS

High Pole Warning

August 13, 2008

DB

Bullish Signal Reversed

August 13, 2008

WBK

High Pole Warning

August 13, 2008

MTU

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 14, 2008

BBV

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 14, 2008

CS

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 18, 2008

BLK

Double Bottom Breakdown

August 18, 2008

This is the longest post i’ve written and I’m sure some of you want to ask questions or make comments, please let’s discuss.

Tags: , , , , , ,