I will be introducing a new Feature this week. A chart to accompany each call. The charts are 3 months and they show all signals that might have occurred during that time-frame.
Red Dots means SELL and Green dots signal BUY.  Simple enough? Great Let's get started.

Here's a look at SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Chart
(Click to Enlarge, Same goes for the rest of the charts)

Upgrades

IYR  iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $52.23

XLF  Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $16.74

Downgrades

DRYS DryShips Inc.
downgraded to SELL on Apr 19 at $6.20

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 21 at $26.98

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $17.32

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 23 at $32.37

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $18.27

Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!

-K

Upgrades

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $29.18     (SELL Apr 05 at $28.60)

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $18.11   (SELL Feb 16 at $24.17)

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $34.01  (SELL Mar 29 at $34.95)

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $19.97     (SELL Feb 11 at $31.40)

Downgrades

IYR  iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $50.24    (BUY Apr 05 at $51.05)

XLF  Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $16.36     (BUY Feb 16 at $14.34)

Notes:
URE and UYG are off my list after the splits because of charting issues.

Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!

Have a good weekend.

-K

This is not just a minor news article as many airports have yet to close but will have to as the ash travels farther from its origin.  According to BBC "Such a large eruption... would have the potential to severely affect air travel at high northern latitudes for six months or more.  "In relation to the current eruption, it is worth noting that the last eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull lasted more than 12 months."

This could be a major win for global warming activists because it might cool us down according to an article in the Guardian that states "The dust can also help reduce global warming. The effect of the Iceland ash cloud will be small but larger eruptions help to cool the planet as they reflect sunlight back into space. The 1815 eruption of Mt Tambora in Indonesia produced so much volcanic ash that it triggered the "year without a summer" that brought widespread failure of harvests across Europe, famine and economic collapse."

Now that we established Mother nature's attempt to stagnate or destroy the economy lets turn our heads to the lovely Jim Cramer who tells us that the Recovery Is Real!
"Maybe this time, the recovery is better, Maybe it's healthier and more sustaining. Maybe this time we've got it right, not wrong, and Maybe the recovery will be responsible and Maybe fueled by a longer-term health in the consumer, and Maybe it will not be turbocharged bad lending."   Now I added a few more maybes on my own to emphasize that Maybe the recovery is real and Maybe Cramer is a genius.

We know mother nature is short and Cramer is long. Lets take a look at some economic data domestically and around the world.

US Economy:

March Foreclosure Activity Highest on Record (Calculated Risk)
7 million households are behind on their mortgages. Now that the worst of the financial crisis appears to be over, banks are finally stepping up the foreclosure process again. Foreclosure filings were reported on 367,056 properties in March, an increase of nearly 19 percent from the previous month, an increase of nearly 8 percent from March 2009 and the highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began issuing its report in January 2005.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 484,000 (The Big Picture)
Today’s Unemployment Insurance claims “unexpectedly” spiked to 484k vs. a 440k consensus, and were 24k higher than last week. Lets get to the excuses as to why the weekly claims for unemployment insurance are not dropping as quickly as everyone would like. "A Labor Department economist said this latest rise can be pegged to lag effects from the spring holidays, including Easter and Cesar Chavez Day, which is celebrated in worker-heavy California." If that puts a dent in employment then here are the Holidays: Thanksgiving, Christmas, MLK Jr. Day, snow storms, Easter, Cesar Chavez. Upcoming next week are Administrative Professionals Day and Take Your Children to Work Day, so fear not when UI claims breach 500k again.

Empire Manufacturing Index Soars (Econompic)
A gauge of manufacturing in New York State rose to a six-month high in April as new orders advanced and employment continued to improve, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Thursday. The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index rose to 31.86 in April, the highest since October and up from 22.86 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a figure of 24.

World Economy:

Greece On Verge Of Activating Rescue Package (Zero Hedge)
A senior Greek Finance Ministry official told Market News that With the call for a meeting today, Greece is seeking to iron out “immediately” exactly what the details of the joint EMU-IMF plan will be, and what fiscal, macroeconomic and other conditions will be imposed on Greece in exchange for the aid. Last weekend Greece issued $2.1 billion in Bills, which auction by the way bankingnews.gr recently reported was a scam, with half the bids being fake!

Israel accuses Syria of arming Hezbollah(AFP)
Israeli President Shimon Peres on Tuesday accused Syria of supplying Scud missiles to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah while publicly talking peace.
"Syria claims it wants peace while at the same time it delivers Scuds to Hezbollah whose only goal is to threaten the state of Israel," Peres told public radio.

Have a good night.
-K

·         Credit card companies will release their mastertrust #s on Thurs and the latest short interest stats hit on Mon after the bell.

·         Congress comes back into session on Mon, w/the focus being on Dodd’s financial regulatory reform bill.

·         China’s president is traveling to the US on Mon for a nuclear summit in Washington (a meeting w/Obama is scheduled for Mon).  There could be more headlines on Iranian sanctions coming out of this Washington summit.      For the rest read Business Insider.

NBER: "Premature" to Call end of Recession
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met at the organization’s headquarters in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 8, 2010. The committee reviewed the most recent data for all indicators relevant to the determination of a possible date of the trough in economic activity marking the end of the recession that began in December 2007. The trough date would identify the end of contraction and the beginning of expansion. Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature. Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months.   Read More at Calculated Risk

VIX plumbs new low as other indicators edge closer to extremes
The volatility index ($VIX) dropped to another new low on its series of waves down since late 2008/early 2009, meaning that investors shed yet more fear to place yet less value on premium protecting against volatility. This places it at risk of a snapback along with a stock market pullback. At the same time, other indicators (shown lower down) also tell the story of the market at the edge of cresting. For Charts go to ChartLines

Feature: Check out our new Live Chat.
We have added another tab to the top of the page and for now it includes a chat where even guests can join and have discussions. Chat will have at least a few people during market hours and the more the merrier as it catches on.  Lets have some lively conversations and stock sharing through it.  Check out our Live Chat.

Have a good night,

-K

Here is the 1.5Year chart showing a different story.
You see... Greece  did hit bottom at the same time as the entire market did as well back in March of 2009 BUT Greece topped out in October of 2009 and started its next leg down.

From March-October 2009 the index rose from 124.17 to 267.40!
Thats 143.23 point gain or 115% Gain in 8 months... and here we are complaining that our market has gone up 75% and is overdue for a correction.
Now as we can see from the chart below Greece then took a turn from 267.40 to 150.84 in February of 2010  (and it might be making a lower low coming up if the bailout saga isn't fully discounted yet) the 116.56 point drop from the October 2009 peak to the temporary February 2010 bottom is a 43.5% correction!

Back to my original question... now do you see why I said no to shorting the Greeks?  44% Correction has already occurred and even if there is another 150 points to the downside (another 50% or so) the risk reward is no longer there. I might be looking to buy up some Greek Gyros or Banks soon to play.  One such play is National Bank of Greece (NBG)
Here is the chart for NBG to compare to the entire index. Also Notice the Recent Volume (Click to Enlarge)

Thats all for tonight folks. Have a good night and a good trading day tomorrow.

-K

IYR upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $51.05     (SELL Mar 26 at $50.10)
URE upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $8.55   (SELL Mar 31 at $8.14)
JNK upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $39.61   (SELL Apr 1 at $39.51)
HYG upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $88.31      (SELL Mar 31 at $87.50)

SRS downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $5.72    (BUY Mar 31st at $6.04)
REW   downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $20.54     (BUY Apr 1st at $21.06)

If you've been following the current picks you might notice above that these are reversed calls from last week. you have to understand that there are fake-outs but I only update the page once a week.  On the works is a subscription plan where i would update it for members every 1-2 days if signals changed. For now let's enjoy some recent highlights.

Recent Highlights:

AAPL from 224.75 on March 22nd to 241.79 of close Friday.
DRYS from 5.88 on March 29th to 6.56 of close Friday.
DIG from 34.27 on March 30th to 37.07 of close Friday.

Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!

Have a good weekend.

-K

Nightly News Links

US Economy:

Bank Failures and Puerto Rico (Calculated Risk)
It appears the FDIC is getting closer to taking action in Puerto Rico. Three banks on the island holding more than $20 billion of assets are in trouble ... It appears the remaining healthy banks in Puerto Rico don't have the capacity to acquire these troubled banks - and most banks not in Puerto Rico just aren't interested.

Crazy Expensive Stuff That's Helping Push Sotheby's Back Towards Nosebleed Heights (BID) (Business Insider)
Sotheby's (BID) is back and the sales are as hot as ever. The auction house, a viable predictor of major market turns, is officially telling us its back to pre-Lehman levels.
Many million dollar pieces are even fetching bids twice the amount predicted, as wealthy buyers appear more than ready to spend again.
Back on March 14th I wrote an article about (BID) as a Market Leading Indicator. Click here to check it out.

World Economy:

U.K. Produce Prices Soar in March (Econompic)
Oil prices rose above $86 a barrel Friday on a weaker dollar and after robust U.S. retail sales in March pointed to growing consumer demand in the world's biggest energy market. As can be seen, this jump is almost entirely due to the cost of energy (it has not yet fed into other goods / services) and elevated producer prices will be difficult for businesses to pass through to end consumers.

More Links on the Greece Fiasco:
1.Greek Short term debt spikes to 21%
2.Fitch Downgrades Greece To BBB-

Interesting Links:

10 Psychological, Valuation, Adapative Investing Rules (The Big Picture)
Everything cycles: Recessions turn into recoveries; bull markets give rise to bear markets. Every rally that there ever was or there ever will be eventually ends. Adapt to this truism or lose your money. - After a collapse (i.e., a 55% market sell off), most of the terrible structural news that existed before the collapse is reflected in prices. Let it go. (Plenty more good ones at the link above)

Southpark: Cartman as Jim Cramer of Facebook
Kudos to Matt Trivisonno for finding this video and finally some straight talk about China.
China is dependent on us, we're working in order to keep Chinese people working. The Chinese think that we are suckers and are laughing at us.
Check the video below for 4 well spent minutes.

Have a Good Night

-K

Nightly News Links

US Economy:

Strong Retail Sales Prove Consumer Isn't Dead (In The Money)
The one sector that is bucking the weakness is the retail sector, after a flurry of same-store sales reports that were very strong. Companies such as Macy's (M), Target (TGT), and Gap (GPS) all posted double-digit increases in comp store sales, a solid showing. The Reformed Broker: " On CNBC, a breathless Dana Telsey guided us through this morning's March Same Store Sales numbers - against incredibly bad comps, the numbers end up looking miraculous. The bulls will make the case that this is the pent-up consumer coming out of the woodwork for good, the bears will remind us that Easter weekend came early this year and was wedged into the month's tally."

World Economy:

Greece is Dying! (The Big Picture)
Highlighting the increasingly troubled situation in Greece, the yield curve spread between 2’s and 10’s is now negative. Greek 2 yr note yields are rising a whopping 114 bps to 7.83% while 10 yr yields are up 34 bps to 7.51%. Greek 5 yr CDS is up 35 bps to 448 bps and now exceeds Dubai and Iceland. Greek stocks are down almost 4%. A German official didn’t help the situation by saying that their stance hasn’t changed and they will only assist Greece as a last resort. Well, that may be fast approaching but it’s looking more likely that it will be an IMF bailout that will lead the way.

More Links on Greece:
1.Goldman On Greece: "Could Turn Into The Endgame"
2.S&P Threatens Greece With Downgrade If Bond Spreads Are Not Quickly Reduced
3.PIMCO Compares Greece To Titanic, Says Bonds Not Attractive Even Over 7%
4.Is A Big US Bank Betting On A Greek Default In 11 Days?

Interesting Links:

Hispanics Create More than Half of Food Growth(Retailer Daily)
The U.S. Hispanic segment made up more than 50% of real U.S. food, beverage and restaurant growth between 2005 and 2008, generating $52 billion of new inflation-adjusted spending. In contrast, non-Hispanics generated $40 billion of new inflation adjusted spending during the same period. This means that between 2005 and 2008, Hispanics accounted for 57.7% of sales growth in the food, beverage and restaurant sector.

Southpark: Cartman as Jim Cramer of Facebook
A 1 minute clip which i found funny

Have a Good Night

-K

Nightly News Links

US Economy:

Consumers Climb Out of Their Bunkers... (TheBigPicture)
As we have previously exhorted, the consumer is “not quite dead, yet.” Indeed, the data suggests that after falling into a state of frozen panic during the credit crisis, there are signs of pent up demand being satisfied slowly but surely. I will be the first to admit that the year over year comparisons are against absurdly low levels, but it is improvements nonetheless. A slow, painful recovery still awaits us...

Consumer Credit Contracts from January Bounce (Back to June 2007 Levels) (Econompic)
Consumer borrowing dropped in February, after increasing for the first time in a year during the previous month, according to a government report released Wednesday.
Total consumer credit fell a seasonally adjusted $11.5 billion in February,Economists predicted a decline in total borrowing of $0.7 billion in February. "February's decline reflects on the still dire state of the economy," said Yasmine Kamaruddin, an economic analyst at Wells Fargo.
"Even if we have seen retail sales and personal expenditure increase in past months, we haven't seen these gains translate into the use of credit because consumers faced with unemployment and slow wage and salary growth are still shying away from taking on credit," she added.

Strip Mall Vacancy Rate hits 10.8% Highest since 1991 (Calculated Risk)
Vacancies at shopping centers in the top 77 U.S. markets increased to 10.8% in the first quarter ... according to Reis.It is the highest vacancy rate since 1991, when vacancies reached 11%. Retail landlords continued to lower lease rates to attract tenants during the first quarter, revealing that optimism about a recovery in retail sales has yet to translate into gains for shopping-center owners.

AIG Goes Parabolic As Repo Desks And Prime Brokers Pull Borrow And Force Short Covering (ZeroHedge)
The "Same Manipulation Different Day" continues, as the powers that be run out of tricks to drive the market higher. Today: a well known and much abused trick to prevent market drops in desperate situations: forced covering in fins. This has culminated with a ridiculous move in AIG in the last 30 minutes of trading. And there you have it. From the administration to State Street, from there to the Prime Brokers and various Repo Desks, and from there straight to the market which jumps on a forced cover, which is supposed to indicate that the economy is hot, hot, hot.

BofA to increase Foreclosures significantly in 2010 (Calculated Risk)
Bank of America, which currently forecloses on 7,500 homes a month nationally, will increase that number to 45,000 homes per month by December of 2010. Bank of America is projecting a 600% increase in its already large number of monthly foreclosures. This isn't unsubstantiated rumor; this comes straight from one of the most powerful men in Bank of America's OREO department. It appears they have too many properties already.

Could Larry Summers Be Leaving?(Fund My Mutual Fund)
"I found the reason for the selloff - it appears Larry Summers is throwing a temper tantrum and took his finger off the "buy SPY futures" button at any sign of weakness.
Tim Geithner, not Summers, has emerged as Obama's key adviser on financial matters, and that Summers isn't happy about it. I think Summers is going to leave sooner rather than later, possibly before the mid-term elections, and if not then, soon afterward. Why? Because Summers is frustrated by his role, and his colleagues are clearly frustrated with him. Some of Summers's frustration no doubt stems from his wanting to be Treasury secretary. When that plum went to Geithner, Summers cast his eye on the Fed chairmanship and agreed to bide his time until Ben Bernanke's term ended. But Summers didn't get the Fed job either. Apparently that didn't sit well.... for more click on link above and it appears that Larry has left a comment as well (if thats the real Summers)

World Economy:

Greek Debt Hits New Fresh Record Of 410 Bps, National Bank Of Greece Tumbles As Greece Now Seeks Arab Money(Zero Hedge)
The whole world is fully aware that Greece is done, and now even the traditional long-term holders have thrown in the towel: the entire Greek curve has melted up more than our own S&P - Bloomberg now notes that even US accounts whose risk memory is non-existent, may not be willing buyers of Greek debt. Of course Greece can join the SEC in blaming the shorts, but that's an old tune. And the biggest and most supreme irony, bankingnews.gr reports that Greece is now seeking emergency capital from Abu Dhabi and other Arabic sources... As if they didn't have a Dubai of their own.

Vietnam Begins to Lure Business Away from China(Fund My Mutual Fund)
The communist nation drew 13.5 percent of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ foreign direct investment pool in 2008, up from 4.4 percent two years earlier, according to the 10-member group. And its allure may be rising, judging from a December survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. Vietnam is a preferred destination for businesses looking to relocate from China, Asia’s biggest investment recipient, the report said. Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, is scheduled to open a $1 billion testing facility in Ho Chi Minh City this year that will employ about 4,000 people. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s second-biggest maker of mobile phones, opened a $1 billion factory in Vietnam six months ago. The number of foreign companies in China with plans to relocate plants inland or outside the country because of rising costs doubled last year.

Nightly Recap for April 6 doesn't exist because i only found 2 articles that struck me as important.
Have a Good Night

-K

Nightly News Links

US Economy:

Recessionary Impact: Fewer Shopping Trips and Less Spending Per Trip (NielsenWire)
A consistent pattern of reduced shopping trips continues to be a major element of consumer’s economic coping strategies. In the latest battle for share of wallet, those retailers who satisfy consumers through differentiation will gain more of less. Retailers’ focus on store brands and price cuts helped keep spending levels in check driving more value for shoppers.

Gen X,Y Will Lead Economic Recovery (PWC)
As a result of recession-shrunk Baby Boomer household wealth, Generations X and Y will fuel the shopping growth needed to spur an economic recovery, according to [pdf] a new study from PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Kantar Retail.

ISM Services Jump (Econompic)
"Business conditions have returned to normal (pre-recession). Our business is up significantly since 2009. We are very positive about the upcoming year. "The economy appears to be holding its own; however, state and local funding is projected to decrease next fiscal year." (Educational Services) "Brisk business activity continues as more projects get 'green light.'" (Utilities) "Observing some relaxation on several fronts regarding spending and hiring. Still very cautious, but making investments where they make sense." (Retail Trade)

World Economy:

Greece 10 Years Back To Crisis Levels As Germany Refuses To Subsidize Greek Interest Rates (Zero Hedge)
Greece has been largely forgotten by the media over the past 2 weeks. This is somewhat perplexing in light of what is happening over in Europe: 1) Greek 10 Year spreads are back to crisis levels, hitting 6.53% today, 50 bps higher than the sub 6% reached in early March when speculation that the EU would fix everything; 2) German disagreements with other eurozone countries on the shape of the Greek bailout are getting more acute by the day, and this is nearly a month after the European "bailout" has been announced.

Interesting Links:

Facebook vs The United States (InfoGraphic) (Mashable)
To find out more about the average American Facebook user and how he or she compares to the average American, we dug a little further. After crunching the numbers and comparing the data, this is what we found (Check link above).

Wikileaks leaked video of Civilians killed in Baghdad - Full video (!Warning! Video is Very Graphic)
After much speculation that it was nothing but a red herring, Wikileaks, which has recently gotten some substantial press coverage on both sides, has finally released a classified video leaked by "a number of military whistleblowers" which depicts "the indiscriminate slaying of over a dozen people in the Iraqi suburb of New Baghdad, including two Reuters news staff."

www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rXPrfnU3G0

Sorry for missing a few days of recaps but with the April Fools combo and Easter I wasn't able to.
Have a Good Night

-K