Current Picks Updated 4-11-2010
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
IYR upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $51.05 (SELL Mar 26 at $50.10)
URE upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $8.55 (SELL Mar 31 at $8.14)
JNK upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $39.61 (SELL Apr 1 at $39.51)
HYG upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $88.31 (SELL Mar 31 at $87.50)
SRS downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $5.72 (BUY Mar 31st at $6.04)
REW downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $20.54 (BUY Apr 1st at $21.06)
If you've been following the current picks you might notice above that these are reversed calls from last week. you have to understand that there are fake-outs but I only update the page once a week. On the works is a subscription plan where i would update it for members every 1-2 days if signals changed. For now let's enjoy some recent highlights.
Recent Highlights:
AAPL from 224.75 on March 22nd to 241.79 of close Friday.
DRYS from 5.88 on March 29th to 6.56 of close Friday.
DIG from 34.27 on March 30th to 37.07 of close Friday.
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K
Nightly Recap 4-8-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +29.55 (10,927.07)
S&P +3.99 (1,186.43)
Nasdaq +5.65 (2,436.81)
____________
Disclaimer:
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
___________
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Strong Retail Sales Prove Consumer Isn't Dead (In The Money)
The one sector that is bucking the weakness is the retail sector, after a flurry of same-store sales reports that were very strong. Companies such as Macy's (M), Target (TGT), and Gap (GPS) all posted double-digit increases in comp store sales, a solid showing. The Reformed Broker: " On CNBC, a breathless Dana Telsey guided us through this morning's March Same Store Sales numbers - against incredibly bad comps, the numbers end up looking miraculous. The bulls will make the case that this is the pent-up consumer coming out of the woodwork for good, the bears will remind us that Easter weekend came early this year and was wedged into the month's tally."
World Economy:
Greece is Dying! (The Big Picture)
Highlighting the increasingly troubled situation in Greece, the yield curve spread between 2’s and 10’s is now negative. Greek 2 yr note yields are rising a whopping 114 bps to 7.83% while 10 yr yields are up 34 bps to 7.51%. Greek 5 yr CDS is up 35 bps to 448 bps and now exceeds Dubai and Iceland. Greek stocks are down almost 4%. A German official didn’t help the situation by saying that their stance hasn’t changed and they will only assist Greece as a last resort. Well, that may be fast approaching but it’s looking more likely that it will be an IMF bailout that will lead the way.
More Links on Greece:
1.Goldman On Greece: "Could Turn Into The Endgame"
2.S&P Threatens Greece With Downgrade If Bond Spreads Are Not Quickly Reduced
3.PIMCO Compares Greece To Titanic, Says Bonds Not Attractive Even Over 7%
4.Is A Big US Bank Betting On A Greek Default In 11 Days?
Interesting Links:
Hispanics Create More than Half of Food Growth(Retailer Daily)
The U.S. Hispanic segment made up more than 50% of real U.S. food, beverage and restaurant growth between 2005 and 2008, generating $52 billion of new inflation-adjusted spending. In contrast, non-Hispanics generated $40 billion of new inflation adjusted spending during the same period. This means that between 2005 and 2008, Hispanics accounted for 57.7% of sales growth in the food, beverage and restaurant sector.
Southpark: Cartman as Jim Cramer of Facebook
A 1 minute clip which i found funny 
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 4-5-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +46.48 (10,973.55)
S&P +9.33 (1,187.43)
Nasdaq +26.95 (2,429.53)
____________
Disclaimer:
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
___________
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Recessionary Impact: Fewer Shopping Trips and Less Spending Per Trip (NielsenWire)
A consistent pattern of reduced shopping trips continues to be a major element of consumer’s economic coping strategies. In the latest battle for share of wallet, those retailers who satisfy consumers through differentiation will gain more of less. Retailers’ focus on store brands and price cuts helped keep spending levels in check driving more value for shoppers.
Gen X,Y Will Lead Economic Recovery (PWC)
As a result of recession-shrunk Baby Boomer household wealth, Generations X and Y will fuel the shopping growth needed to spur an economic recovery, according to [pdf] a new study from PriceWaterhouseCoopers and Kantar Retail.
ISM Services Jump (Econompic)
"Business conditions have returned to normal (pre-recession). Our business is up significantly since 2009. We are very positive about the upcoming year. "The economy appears to be holding its own; however, state and local funding is projected to decrease next fiscal year." (Educational Services) "Brisk business activity continues as more projects get 'green light.'" (Utilities) "Observing some relaxation on several fronts regarding spending and hiring. Still very cautious, but making investments where they make sense." (Retail Trade)
World Economy:
Greece 10 Years Back To Crisis Levels As Germany Refuses To Subsidize Greek Interest Rates (Zero Hedge)
Greece has been largely forgotten by the media over the past 2 weeks. This is somewhat perplexing in light of what is happening over in Europe: 1) Greek 10 Year spreads are back to crisis levels, hitting 6.53% today, 50 bps higher than the sub 6% reached in early March when speculation that the EU would fix everything; 2) German disagreements with other eurozone countries on the shape of the Greek bailout are getting more acute by the day, and this is nearly a month after the European "bailout" has been announced.
Interesting Links:
Facebook vs The United States (InfoGraphic) (Mashable)
To find out more about the average American Facebook user and how he or she compares to the average American, we dug a little further. After crunching the numbers and comparing the data, this is what we found (Check link above).
Wikileaks leaked video of Civilians killed in Baghdad - Full video (!Warning! Video is Very Graphic)
After much speculation that it was nothing but a red herring, Wikileaks, which has recently gotten some substantial press coverage on both sides, has finally released a classified video leaked by "a number of military whistleblowers" which depicts "the indiscriminate slaying of over a dozen people in the Iraqi suburb of New Baghdad, including two Reuters news staff."
Sorry for missing a few days of recaps but with the April Fools combo and Easter I wasn't able to.
Have a Good Night
-K
Current Picks Updated 4-4-2010
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
IWM upgraded to BUY on Apr 01 at $68.43 (SELL Mar 19 at $67.41)
DRYS upgraded to BUY on Mar 29th at $5.88 (SELL Mar 25 at $5.66)
SRS upgraded to BUY on Mar 31st at $6.04 (SELL Feb 16 at $7.83)
REW upgraded to BUY on Apr 1st at $21.06 (SELL Feb 26 at $23.86)
DIG upgraded to BUY on Mar 30th at $34.27 (SELL Mar 19 at $33.97)
URE downgraded to SELL on Mar 31st at $8.14 (BUY Feb 16 at $6.38)
JNK downgraded to SELL on Apr 1st at $39.51 (BUY Feb 17 at $37.97)
HYG downgraded to SELL on Mar 31st at $87.50 (BUY Feb 17 at $85.38)
DUG downgraded to SELL on Mar 30th at $12.36 (BUY Mar 19 at $12.40)
SMN downgraded to SELL on Mar 29th at $6.99 (BUY Mar 19 at $7.37)
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K
Nightly Recap 3-24-2010
Market Summary:
DOW -52.68 (10,836.15)
S&P -6.45 (1,167.72)
Nasdaq -16.48 (2,398.76)
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Durable Goods Jump on Continued Strength in Aircraft (Econompic)
Orders for big-ticket manufactured goods rose for a third consecutive month in February, bolstered by strong demand for commercial aircraft and machinery. The
hope is that continued strength in manufacturing will help sustain the economic recovery.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that orders for durable goods advanced 0.5 percent last month, slightly lower than the 0.7 percent gain that economists had expected.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Chicago Fed) [PDF]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index is a surprisingly good forecaster of economic activity. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index constructed to summarize variation in 85 data series on U.S. economic activity.
New Home Sales Plunge To New All Time Record Low (Zero Hedge)
New home sales drop to a record low adjusted annual rate of 308K. All of the government's housing stabilizing measures are now a disaster, as existing home sales inventory surges to nearly 9 months, not counting the shadow inventory, which is more than double.
World Economy:
China: Sale of residential land temporarily halted (China Daily)
The Ministry of Land and Resources has ordered a temporary ban on the sale of land for housing in a renewed measure to ease soaring real estate prices.
Yun Xiaosu, vice-minister of land and resources, said local authorities should not sell land for residential purposes until this year's housing land supply plan is released in early April.
"Residential land supply will increase and low-income housing projects will top local governments' agendas," Yun said during a video-conference on Monday.
Getting Technical: Trouble Brewing in Europe (Barrons)
News that Portugal's credit rating was downgraded by one of the major ratings agencies sent a shiver across the European Union.
The question on investors' minds is whether this is the start of something bigger or just a contained incident. After all, Greece's problems did not take down global markets.The stock market, however, might have the answer and it is not good. Technical death crosses -- when key short-term moving averages move below longer-term moving averages -- have occurred in several of the troubled markets. Most will agree that the stock market looks forward to events expected to occur perhaps nine months down the road. It is one way we can explain why stocks rallied a year ago when the financial world was in danger of collapse. "We ain't seen nuthin' yet"
Have a Good Night
-K
Current Picks Updated 3-20-2010
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
IWM downgraded to SELL on Mar 19th at $67.41 (BUY Feb 11 at $60.58)
AAPL downgraded to SELL on Mar 19th at $222.30 (BUY Feb 25 at $202.00)
DIG downgraded to SELL on Mar 19th at $33.98 (BUY Mar 1 at $33.09)
DUG upgraded to BUY on Mar 19th at $12.40 (SELL Mar 1 at $12.80)
SMN upgraded to BUY on Mar 19th at $7.37 (SELL Feb 9 at $9.26)
And Mitch, I tried to add MGI to the current picks list per your request on the comment box, but right now it's been stuck in a range and gives more than one signal a week (one too many considering I only do weekly updates to the page) I will keep an eye on it once it breaks the range.
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K
8-20-2009.. another repeat of 7-13-2009 ?
If you have been following my current picks page you might have noticed that most of the symbols received buy signals on 7-13-2009 which is when the March rally was coming to a correction but then bounced. Will we have another case of this with 8-20-2009?
I was hoping we wouldn't that is why I posted those charts yesterday thinking we had topped. Well my automated strategy was saying otherwise and I completely Ignored it.
Normally I would just update the current picks page but this time around I have decided to make a blog post.
----------
Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
$SPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$INDU |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$COMPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QQQQ |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
IWM |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SPY |
8-20-2009 |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
IYR |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
AAPL |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DRYS |
8-14-2009 |
|
|
SDS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SRS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SSO |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SKF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
UYG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
URE |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
JNK |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
HYG |
8-7-2009 |
|
|
REW |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QID |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
QLD |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
XLF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DIG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DUG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SMN |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
VXX |
|
8-19-2009 |
The VIX ETF signaled a sell before the rest of the signals came in the following day. That is interesting.
-K
Summary of picks from yesterday
Yesterday’s picks turned out to be right on. Although with pathetic moves, AMD gained its way up. It has been trying to break its new resistance at $4.50 majority of the day. Unfortunately, I followed my plan and sold it in the morning to break even (including commission) because I did not have any more patience from watching it a day before. If I would have kept it for the day and trust my own gut, I could have made easy $0.2501 per share (or 6%). I hope some of you had more patience and easily profited on AMD. The lesson to be learned from this is that I’m very impatient trader.
AIB is hanging strong. Even though I intended to keep it for a longer period of time, I sold it with $0.26 per share profit (or 9%) because I needed net liquidity for other trades I did today. With that said, AIB is still a keeper and I will very likely get back into this stock some time this or next week.
| Company | Buy Date | Sell Date | Buy Price | Sell Price | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 5/18/09 | 5/19/09 | $4.1399 | $4.15 | - |
| AIB | 5/18/09 | 5/19/09 | $2.89 | $3.15 | 9% |
Although single digit, 9% profit overnight is always nice.
Let me know what you think about those two picks in the comment box.
Current Picks
LAST UPDATE: 8-8-2010
This page is intended to provide buy and sell signals given by a strategy.
Those who like my calls can follow or at least consider the alerts; those that think this is all fake can keep opinions to themselves and check the info page. Amount of time in the market using this system is about 38% on average which means you are not in at all times. It is not a buy and hold strategy nor is it a day trading strategy unless very rarely a buy and a sell signal occur on the same day.
I am only giving the latest signal for each stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration.
Market Indices
| Symbol | Description | Buy Date | Sell Date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
$SPX
|
S&P 500 INDEX
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SPY
|
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
$INDU
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
$COMPX
|
NASDAQ Composite
|
7-8-2010
|
|
|
QQQQ
|
PowerShares QQQ (ETF)
|
7-8-2010
|
|
|
IWM
|
iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
More Symbols
| Symbol | Description | Buy Date | Sell Date |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AAPL
|
Apple Inc.
|
8-6-2010
|
|
|
BID
|
Sotheby's
|
8-4-2010
|
|
|
BBT
|
BB&T Corporation
|
7-15-2010
|
|
|
DIG
|
ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (ETF)
|
7-20-2010
|
|
|
DUG
|
ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (ETF)
|
7-20-2010
|
|
|
DRYS
|
DryShips Inc.
|
7-8-2010
|
|
|
HYG
|
iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
IYR
|
iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
|
7-22-2010
|
|
|
JNK
|
SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield B (ETF)
|
8-5-2010
|
|
|
QID
|
ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF)
|
7-20-2010
|
|
|
QLD
|
ProShares Ultra QQQ (ETF)
|
8-2-2010
|
|
|
REW
|
ProShares UltraShort Technology (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SDS
|
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SKF
|
ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
|
|
SMN
|
ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
SRS
|
ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
|
|
SSO
|
ProShares Ultra S&P500 (ETF)
|
7-7-2010
|
|
|
VXX
|
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
|
6-10-2010
|
|
|
XLF
|
Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
|
8-6-2010
|
Is The Oil Bubble Ready To Burst?
Bubbles Always Have a Limit where they can no longer grow and sustain the hype.
I have seen oil run up like many of you have but without owning a car it hasn't hurt my wallet yet.
I've been thinking of investing in an oil shorting stock (Exchange traded Fund in this case.)
Symbol: (DUG) which bets that oil will go down. The ETF that bets for oil is (DIG) and the top 10 holdings are listed below. DUG basically almost shorts all those companies and more.
Source: ProShares
Here is my usual chart showing the trend reversal the past few days.
It broke through the 50 day moving average and might make a modest run.
-----
An interesting chart showing that the oil price has touched base with the total oil consumption just like the 1980's bubble.
Source: SmartEconomy
-----
Disclaimer: I have not invested into DUG yet but it is getting very interesting.