At the time of this writing I have taken a 56% profit after commission on some weekly SPY 127 puts that expire today. Entered in at 0.16/contract and exited at 0.28.

As you will see in the chart included, I have placed my entry and exits with yellow stars and my ideal target exit with a green star. The yellow dots in between some of the candles are times where I created an order to exit the trade and cancelled. I wanted to exit twice when I had generated 20% profit and once when I had over 25% loss.

(Click Chart to Enlarge)

My Entry (first yellow star) was just where I wanted it (below the daily pivot). I am still working on my exit execution and controlling of emotions. I usually write out how I feel about the market action or trade via either sharing with another trader via text, chat, twitter etc. When those aren’t my preferred choice I write it down on a notebook. It’s not foolproof but it helps me personally stick to my strategy and most of the time a trade.

I will provide more info about the chart for the curious ones… The purple dots represent the daily pivot point. The red dots represent resistance levels and the grey dots are support levels. The two red lines represent yesterday’s highs and lows so I would have an idea when that tight trend that developed yesterday would be broken. Also the chart is 5 minute to show the entries better but I prefer to use 15 minutes when day trading.

This is mainly on here for me to reflect on as an online public journal, they say when you publicly share something you are more committed to keeping it (in this case sticking to my strategy that works for me and just working on getting better at exits and emotions).

Update: As of 11:35AM Eastern it looks like my ideal exit has been hit and the put options were worth 0.49 a contract. Had I executed that the profits would have been 187% after commission but that’s in an ideal world. Another influencer in my premature exit (pun intended) was that Obama was set to speak around 11:35AM and I wanted to avoid any spikes that would ruin my trade.

As of 12:50PM SPY hit lower than the second support line in my chart.  Emotions got the best of me and I did exit too early indeed (would have been 400% since my entry). Its hard to think of it that way. If i had exited at -25% loss (as mentioned earlier) I would be devastated for the day.

As the new InvestingFreak tag says:  See it, Call it, Trade it, Bank it.
I Saw the potential for a down day, Called it by texting a fellow trader (will work on tweeting realtime to share ideas), Traded it, and well... Banked it.

Make some moneyyy!!

-K

Basically ETF's are usually set up to mimic indices that we cannot directly buy. That is a great way to stay invested and diversified if you believe the stock market in general will do good or bad. The number of Enron Task Forces is now reaching the gazillions and "investors" are so drawn into them that they are getting bigger and bigger and bigger (can you guess already?).

Here is SPY ETF compared to the index that it tries to replicate. (Click To Enlarge)

As you can see the mirroring effect is almost so perfect that by owning SPY shares you will make nearly the same percentage as how the S&P 500 has performed.  Thats GREAT! It takes pain away from doing individual stock research. Of course if you still want to invest in specific stocks with minimal effort and AMAZING returns I would recommend Bear Sterns.  After you have made millions in Bear Sterns get your attention back to this useless post.

Hey I have an Idea! I believe Volatility will increase and VIX index will keep going higher again. Hmm "Google Google on the wall whats the best ETF of them All?" Google: VXX for the win!   So there you have it, if you want volatility there is an ETF for that.  Alright time to cut to the chase because its nearing midnight. Click Below to Enlarge the Comparison between VIX and VXX.

Notice a Difference between the SPY comparison and the the VXX comparison? Gosh I hope so or get the FREAK out of here!  They don't mirror each other AT ALL. They Barely did before last august and from then on its a whole different story. Speaking of stories... Thanks Dan for the heads up in the comments about the "VXX Reverse Split 1:4" story.
For those that are new to stock splits a quick search can yield a lot of information but I will spare that for you by explaining in my own words what will happen here.
When VXX reverse splits in the first week of November (lets assume its at $13 on that day) it will start showing up as a $52 instead. How can they just change the price? Well If you owned 4 shares of VXX now you will own just 1 later thats how.

Ok finally getting to the finish.  A reverse split is bad because instead of increasing the amount of shares outstanding, the company is making this move to make the stock look like it has more value when in fact is the same crappy thing.  I will not be playing VXX but seeing the "oh so perfect" mirroring effect it has done so far I congratulate those who will keep shorting it via whatever method works for them and reaping profits until VXX slashes in half once again.

Thats it for now and I hope that helped clear your question Dan.  Volatility will not get a spark just because Barclays "Enron Task Force" will have a "higher price". If you're still confused or stumble upon other interesting things that you would like to share, the boxes are right below the post most of the time.

Happy Trading all and to all a good night!

-K

First off for some humor Here's my Inspiration to the awesome title.

Ok so without even mentioning any recent news because I really don't care if the Economy officially came out of recession last summer or if Larry Summers will finally leave his post at the end of the year because I am a technical trader and I like to trade what I see rather than what I hear. If I traded what I heard then I would be a BOOOYAH Cramerica Fan which would have made me millionaire by now if I had invested billions.

Lets start off with an hourly chart for the past 20 days of the SPY so we can see what happened while the blog was inactive.
I will not reveal the indicators of lines used in the chart but with some trial and error you might be able to figure it out . As you can see starting September 1st the market broke above the blue line while at the same time volume picked up and a special indicator went from red to green.  SPY at the time was around 107 and today it reached a high of nearly 115.

Thats great and all as we see what happened in the past but what about the "Freak"ing future?  I am not calling a market top yet but I must make my intentions known that if either 115 or 113 are broken on the hourly while the volume is there then that will determine the future.  If I were to call it? I would say the volume increased the last two hours of today's trading thanks to Ben Balloonhead and the special indicator below is heading downhill (but still green).  My ideal trade would be when SPY cuts below 113 and the indicator turns red.  Remember that even if what I am preaching does not happen at least it is a more informed decision than pressing a "Buy Buy Buy, Sell Sell Sell" button. (Click Image below to Enlarge)

Next up we will visit something I like to call the Bollinger Bands and again I will not reveal the inputs but I hope you are understanding (you can always figure it out with some hard work), as you can see I have also shown the signals my system has given to me. I am awaiting for that Sell signal which might send SPY to 110's at the very least if it displays me that lovely red "S".  of course there have been times where the market just consolidates along the blue lines and then moves up in which case I wouldn't enter until I see my system print the signals while I also evaluate the chart already posted above.

Are you falling asleep yet? If so you aren't a real Investing Freak because only the elite know that without doing your homework you will go into the market like a headless chicken and come out a loser. Now Time to introduce the updated Investing Freak special chart which I last displayed back in June. If you click on the link and go to that post you will see a  "price line" drawn near 1152 (it's really just a bit over 1150 if you get microscopical), I mention that because today the market reached up to 1048.59 and retreated a full 10 points!  10 points is a sweet intra-day move which you can make a killing on if you play it right. Anyways here is the updated chart since I can see you falling asleep. (Click below to Enlarge)

Recap: I've been busy, market has been behaving according to plan and is not showing more negative signs than positive but no definite reversal has been noticed so just use the charts above for reference. If they are helpful, you are welcome to post comments so we can liven up the blog again.

Until next post.... Enjoy Making money!!

-K

It will be a week or two until I get my trading groove on but for now i've updated the Current Pick's page on top.
here are the main indices.

Market Indices

Hope its been a profitable 100 point market move for my fellow readers and here's to more fun swings to come.

-K

Did you hear that? BP cares about you so much that if you are in the Gulf of Mexico and for the next century your fishing or tourism business is doomed.. BP has put together $20 billion dollar fund for your damage It is truly truly truly sorry. Oh and If you weren't affected by BP but are part of US pension funds – including Calpers, the Teacher Retirement System of Texas and Ohio Public Employees Retirement System then BP is truly truly truly sorry for you as well because the 12% dividend yield that you saw a few days ago will be reduced to 0% so they can spread that wealth to the victims.  You can enjoy your -50% gain in BP stock now.

But wait I forgot to mention one benefit of this disaster. BP has hired cleanup workers to clean things up and this good news for the people of the Gulf.  Hey you just got promoted from fisherman to fish rescuer, Congrats!!  Just sign here on the dotted line ...........   and just make sure to not get sea sick from the delicious fumes because your complaints and health information will never be part of BP's record.

BP attempted to deny and conceal links of its oil spill to illnesses, after initial reports of oil cleanup workers who were getting sick due to extended exposure to oil and dispersants. Fishermen have complained of “severe headaches, dizziness, nausea and difficulty breathing” after working to clean up the spill, and one said BP did not provide protective equipment. But BP CEO Tony Hayward brushed off illness concerns, suggesting “food poisoning” might have been the culprit.

Although Louisiana state records indicate that at least 74 oil spill workers have complained of becoming sick after exposure to pollutants, BP’s own official recordkeeping notes just two such incidents.

You all should feel sorry for BP Because it will take anywhere from 100 days to 365 days for BP to make back the $20 billion in profit while the victims sit at home and receive checks.
Ok fine that's less than a year's worth of profits... But this is just a fund for economic damage, and won't protect it against all sorts of other legal costs. According to NYT legal costs and criminal fees could hit at least $63 billion.   WHOOPS!    Hey NYSE:BP stock... you will be missed when you hit $19 but on the bright side! You'll be a teenager again full of energy (pun intended) !

And now for a mini change of subject.  Senate has now accepted an expanded Fed audit. The House proposal allows repeated future audits of discount window and open market transactions, whereas the Senate proposal had only allowed a one-time audit. Of course this is just a grain of salt and even when it's passed it might be years before we see any audits.

BP plc (ADR) has concluded that its “top-kill” attempt to seal its broken well in the Gulf of Mexico may have failed due to a malfunctioning disk inside the well about 1,000 feet below the ocean floor. If the casing is compromised the well is that much more difficult to shut down, including the risk that the relief wells may not be enough. If the relief wells do not result in stopping the flow, the next and drastic step is to implode the well on top of itself, which carries other risks as well. The real doomsday scenario here… is if that casing gives up, and it does come through the other strings of pipe. Remember, it is concentric pipe that holds this well together. If it comes into the formation, basically, you‘ve got uncontrolled [oil] flow to the sea floor. And that is the doomsday scenario. -Naked Capitalism

The U.S. Coast Guard gave BP Plc 48 hours to find more capacity to contain its leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico after scientists and researchers doubled their estimates of the spill’s size.Based on government estimates, the drillship isn’t capturing as much of the spill as BP predicted earlier this month. In a June 4 interview with CBS, Suttles said the system would be capable of capturing as much as 90 percent of the flow.

If BP does not comply with this order, and cannot give a satisfactory reason why, this will put them further on the back foot in their meeting with Obama next week. Readers are correctly cynical as to whether the Administration will live up to its tough words, but the groundwork is being laid, which would make failure to follow through even harder to defend.

Separately, BP said its board will meet June 14 to discuss whether to cut or defer its second-quarter dividend payment following the spill. This is causing BP's Major British Shareholders to Ditch The Company While American Ones Are Staying. Major UK institutions including Legal & General, M&G, Scottish Widows, Threadneedle and Axa have all trimmed their holdings since the Deepwater Horizon rig sank. US pension funds – including Calpers, the Teacher Retirement System of Texas and Ohio Public Employees Retirement System – have held their stakes in the company despite the dramatic fall in the share price.

If you think BP is a good buy right now check out this article: The Ultimate Contrarian Bet: BP

Lets see what today has in store for BP and the rest of the market.

Happy Trading

Update 1pm : - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D, Nev.) and members of the Democratic caucus on Monday asked BP Plc (BP) to set aside $20 billion in a special account to be used to pay for economic damages and clean-up costs of an ongoing oil spill in the Gulf Coast.

Update 3:30pm: To demonstrate that it’s responsibly taking care of the oil spill and listening to public complaints, BP has touted the fact that it has set up call centers to handle the response. However, one of the operators at the BP Call Center in West Houston has revealed that she and the other 100 employees are just PR props; BP isn’t actually doing anything with the thousands of calls it receives: "“We’re a diversion to stop them from really getting to the corporate office, to the big people,” said Janice. … Because the operators believe the calls never get past them, some don’t even bother taking notes."

To the followers of InvestingFreak's Current Picks I thank you for your support and I hope the $SPX April 27th Sell signal (along with the other symbols) made you some good money especially if you traded SPY puts. As Shown Below the market has corrected over 10% since then and there still no buy signal.

We now have a 
Button on the right hand side.

To those that have already donated we would like to Thank You! for helping us pay the hosting bills. We hope you continue to enjoy the content on this site.

Lastly I would like to inform you that there won't be any updates from May 22 to June 1st because even Freaks need to take breaks.

Make some money next week and donate 10% to us.

-K

You can also find this at the top on Current Picks Page.. I hadn't updated it in two weeks but as you can see the major signals are from late April so nothing was missed.

My System caught onto the downdraft about a week before the "fat finger" occured and from what I just observed going through these charts is that the "fat finger" was very skinny and precise... nuff said because I need to keep this one a secret. Enjoy

Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)

Make Some Money... Ok A Lot of Money!
-K

Why?

If you buy a 1000 shares of MCGI at 2.3, you will pay $2300 + commission. Thus, most you can lose is $2300 and there is no limit on your reward-- it could go as high as $4, or $100 per share.

If you short sell a 1000 shares of MCGI at 2.3, you will pay $2300 + commission. Here is the catch: you bet that the price will go down, so THEORETICALLY you can only make 100% of your investment if the price will go down to $0 (zero, null, nada, nic, vlere). THE PROBLEM: the price of the stock can go up infinitely, so you can lose the value of your whole account if you are not being careful. I recommend to never, ever, under no circumstance, leave the short position open without you looking at the price action and being ready to pull the trigger within seconds. If you still do not understand what short selling is or are confused about something, please leave a comment with your question and I will do my best to answer it.

If you understand the risk of short selling, you are half way there. In order to short a stock, you need to borrow shares from your broker. Below is the list of some brokers and how I go about borrowing shares from them.

Thinkorswim: their platform will tell you whether given stock is easy to borrow or hard to borrow by showing you ETB or HTB in the top right corner of the quote window. If it is ETB, you can just execute sell order which is equivalent of shorting. If it is HTB, you have two options: call them or chat with them live on the website. I generally prefer to chat with them as it is the easiest and most convenient for me. I connect with Trade desk, and say "Hi, do you have a 1000 shares of MCGI to borrow?." If they do not have shares, the person will say "none" or "none available." If they are available, the person you are speaking with will ask you for your account # and the price you want your order to be placed. I usually would reply with "Set sell lmt order at $x.xx"" -- I recommend to ALWAYS set your order higher than it is now at as sometimes it could take them 10 seconds and sometimes 2 minutes for your order to start working.

TD Ameritrade: there is no way to know whether the stock is short-able or not. You can try executing the sell order and it will either get executed or not. If not, you will be simply given an error message saying: rejected. Note that TD has implemented Thinkorswim's software recently so it might be possible to know whether it is short-able or not. I personally have not used TD for a while; I never liked TD and their high commissions.

E-trade: tired them in the past. My experience has been negative (but maybe they changed since then?). Just like with TD, you can't know whether it is short-able. You can try executing sell order and it will either be successful or rejected.

Sogotrade: You can know whether given stock is available to borrow by using this URL: http://www.gndt.com/support/shortlist.htm or simply calling them. The list is updated only once during a day so it is possible that shares of desired stock might be already borrowed and not available anymore. Generally speaking, in my experience, Sogotrade usually has shares to borrow of stocks you can't find with other brokers. Don't ask me why, I don't know...

I will add more brokers if anyone is interested.

- Kamil

I will be introducing a new Feature this week. A chart to accompany each call. The charts are 3 months and they show all signals that might have occurred during that time-frame.
Red Dots means SELL and Green dots signal BUY.  Simple enough? Great Let's get started.

Here's a look at SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Chart
(Click to Enlarge, Same goes for the rest of the charts)

Upgrades

IYR  iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $52.23

XLF  Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $16.74

Downgrades

DRYS DryShips Inc.
downgraded to SELL on Apr 19 at $6.20

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 21 at $26.98

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $17.32

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 23 at $32.37

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $18.27

Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!

-K