Weekly Picks- Buy:IYR,XLF Sell:DRYS,SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX
This week was mostly a reversal of calls made last week, the only new call is a Sell on DRYS.
When the week moves in a range (market Zig Zagged 30 points up and down) they are called False Signals because my system is a trending one.
Nobody has called me out on my calls but this is the first back to back week that signals have reversed in my blogging days so I thought I'd clear the air
.
I will be introducing a new Feature this week. A chart to accompany each call. The charts are 3 months and they show all signals that might have occurred during that time-frame.
Red Dots means SELL and Green dots signal BUY. Simple enough? Great Let's get started.
Here's a look at SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Chart
(Click to Enlarge, Same goes for the rest of the charts)

Upgrades
IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $52.23

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $16.74

Downgrades
DRYS DryShips Inc.
downgraded to SELL on Apr 19 at $6.20

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 21 at $26.98

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $17.32

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 23 at $32.37

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $18.27

Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
-K
Weekly Picks- Buy:SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX Sell:IYR,XLF
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
Upgrades
SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $29.18 (SELL Apr 05 at $28.60)
SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $18.11 (SELL Feb 16 at $24.17)
SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $34.01 (SELL Mar 29 at $34.95)
VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $19.97 (SELL Feb 11 at $31.40)
Downgrades
IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $50.24 (BUY Apr 05 at $51.05)
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $16.36 (BUY Feb 16 at $14.34)
Notes:
URE and UYG are off my list after the splits because of charting issues.
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K
Are Greek stocks ready for a comeback?
With all the recent bailout talks for Greece it might seem like a good time to short Greek assets right? No!
The risk rewards at this point have been cut in half. I will display a chart below of the Dow Jones Greece Stock Index $GRDOW.
Here is a 3 year chart with no comments. (Click to Enlarge)
Here is the 1.5Year chart showing a different story.
You see... Greece did hit bottom at the same time as the entire market did as well back in March of 2009 BUT Greece topped out in October of 2009 and started its next leg down.
From March-October 2009 the index rose from 124.17 to 267.40!
Thats 143.23 point gain or 115% Gain in 8 months... and here we are complaining that our market has gone up 75% and is overdue for a correction.
Now as we can see from the chart below Greece then took a turn from 267.40 to 150.84 in February of 2010 (and it might be making a lower low coming up if the bailout saga isn't fully discounted yet) the 116.56 point drop from the October 2009 peak to the temporary February 2010 bottom is a 43.5% correction!
Back to my original question... now do you see why I said no to shorting the Greeks? 44% Correction has already occurred and even if there is another 150 points to the downside (another 50% or so) the risk reward is no longer there. I might be looking to buy up some Greek Gyros or Banks soon to play. One such play is National Bank of Greece (NBG)
Here is the chart for NBG to compare to the entire index. Also Notice the Recent Volume (Click to Enlarge)
Thats all for tonight folks. Have a good night and a good trading day tomorrow.
-K
Current Picks Updated 4-11-2010
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
IYR upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $51.05 (SELL Mar 26 at $50.10)
URE upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $8.55 (SELL Mar 31 at $8.14)
JNK upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $39.61 (SELL Apr 1 at $39.51)
HYG upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $88.31 (SELL Mar 31 at $87.50)
SRS downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $5.72 (BUY Mar 31st at $6.04)
REW downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $20.54 (BUY Apr 1st at $21.06)
If you've been following the current picks you might notice above that these are reversed calls from last week. you have to understand that there are fake-outs but I only update the page once a week. On the works is a subscription plan where i would update it for members every 1-2 days if signals changed. For now let's enjoy some recent highlights.
Recent Highlights:
AAPL from 224.75 on March 22nd to 241.79 of close Friday.
DRYS from 5.88 on March 29th to 6.56 of close Friday.
DIG from 34.27 on March 30th to 37.07 of close Friday.
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K
Nightly Recap 4-9-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +70.28 (10,997.35) Briefly Touched 11,000
S&P +7.94 (1,194.37)
Nasdaq +17.24 (2,454.05)
____________
Disclaimer:
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
___________
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Bank Failures and Puerto Rico (Calculated Risk)
It appears the FDIC is getting closer to taking action in Puerto Rico. Three banks on the island holding more than $20 billion of assets are in trouble ... It appears the remaining healthy banks in Puerto Rico don't have the capacity to acquire these troubled banks - and most banks not in Puerto Rico just aren't interested.
Crazy Expensive Stuff That's Helping Push Sotheby's Back Towards Nosebleed Heights (BID) (Business Insider)
Sotheby's (BID) is back and the sales are as hot as ever. The auction house, a viable predictor of major market turns, is officially telling us its back to pre-Lehman levels.
Many million dollar pieces are even fetching bids twice the amount predicted, as wealthy buyers appear more than ready to spend again.
Back on March 14th I wrote an article about (BID) as a Market Leading Indicator. Click here to check it out.
World Economy:
U.K. Produce Prices Soar in March (Econompic)
Oil prices rose above $86 a barrel Friday on a weaker dollar and after robust U.S. retail sales in March pointed to growing consumer demand in the world's biggest energy market. As can be seen, this jump is almost entirely due to the cost of energy (it has not yet fed into other goods / services) and elevated producer prices will be difficult for businesses to pass through to end consumers.
More Links on the Greece Fiasco:
1.Greek Short term debt spikes to 21%
2.Fitch Downgrades Greece To BBB-
Interesting Links:
10 Psychological, Valuation, Adapative Investing Rules (The Big Picture)
Everything cycles: Recessions turn into recoveries; bull markets give rise to bear markets. Every rally that there ever was or there ever will be eventually ends. Adapt to this truism or lose your money. - After a collapse (i.e., a 55% market sell off), most of the terrible structural news that existed before the collapse is reflected in prices. Let it go. (Plenty more good ones at the link above)
Southpark: Cartman as Jim Cramer of Facebook
Kudos to Matt Trivisonno for finding this video and finally some straight talk about China.
China is dependent on us, we're working in order to keep Chinese people working. The Chinese think that we are suckers and are laughing at us.
Check the video below for 4 well spent minutes.
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 4-7-2010
Market Summary:
DOW -72.47 (10,897.52)
S&P -6.99 (1,182.44)
Nasdaq -5.65 (2,431.16)
____________
Disclaimer:
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
___________
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Consumers Climb Out of Their Bunkers... (TheBigPicture)
As we have previously exhorted, the consumer is “not quite dead, yet.” Indeed, the data suggests that after falling into a state of frozen panic during the credit crisis, there are signs of pent up demand being satisfied slowly but surely. I will be the first to admit that the year over year comparisons are against absurdly low levels, but it is improvements nonetheless. A slow, painful recovery still awaits us...
Consumer Credit Contracts from January Bounce (Back to June 2007 Levels) (Econompic)
Consumer borrowing dropped in February, after increasing for the first time in a year during the previous month, according to a government report released Wednesday.
Total consumer credit fell a seasonally adjusted $11.5 billion in February,Economists predicted a decline in total borrowing of $0.7 billion in February. "February's decline reflects on the still dire state of the economy," said Yasmine Kamaruddin, an economic analyst at Wells Fargo.
"Even if we have seen retail sales and personal expenditure increase in past months, we haven't seen these gains translate into the use of credit because consumers faced with unemployment and slow wage and salary growth are still shying away from taking on credit," she added.
Strip Mall Vacancy Rate hits 10.8% Highest since 1991 (Calculated Risk)
Vacancies at shopping centers in the top 77 U.S. markets increased to 10.8% in the first quarter ... according to Reis.It is the highest vacancy rate since 1991, when vacancies reached 11%. Retail landlords continued to lower lease rates to attract tenants during the first quarter, revealing that optimism about a recovery in retail sales has yet to translate into gains for shopping-center owners.
AIG Goes Parabolic As Repo Desks And Prime Brokers Pull Borrow And Force Short Covering (ZeroHedge)
The "Same Manipulation Different Day" continues, as the powers that be run out of tricks to drive the market higher. Today: a well known and much abused trick to prevent market drops in desperate situations: forced covering in fins. This has culminated with a ridiculous move in AIG in the last 30 minutes of trading. And there you have it. From the administration to State Street, from there to the Prime Brokers and various Repo Desks, and from there straight to the market which jumps on a forced cover, which is supposed to indicate that the economy is hot, hot, hot.
BofA to increase Foreclosures significantly in 2010 (Calculated Risk)
Bank of America, which currently forecloses on 7,500 homes a month nationally, will increase that number to 45,000 homes per month by December of 2010. Bank of America is projecting a 600% increase in its already large number of monthly foreclosures. This isn't unsubstantiated rumor; this comes straight from one of the most powerful men in Bank of America's OREO department. It appears they have too many properties already.
Could Larry Summers Be Leaving?(Fund My Mutual Fund)
"I found the reason for the selloff - it appears Larry Summers is throwing a temper tantrum and took his finger off the "buy SPY futures" button at any sign of weakness.
Tim Geithner, not Summers, has emerged as Obama's key adviser on financial matters, and that Summers isn't happy about it. I think Summers is going to leave sooner rather than later, possibly before the mid-term elections, and if not then, soon afterward. Why? Because Summers is frustrated by his role, and his colleagues are clearly frustrated with him. Some of Summers's frustration no doubt stems from his wanting to be Treasury secretary. When that plum went to Geithner, Summers cast his eye on the Fed chairmanship and agreed to bide his time until Ben Bernanke's term ended. But Summers didn't get the Fed job either. Apparently that didn't sit well.... for more click on link above and it appears that Larry has left a comment as well (if thats the real Summers)
World Economy:
Greek Debt Hits New Fresh Record Of 410 Bps, National Bank Of Greece Tumbles As Greece Now Seeks Arab Money(Zero Hedge)
The whole world is fully aware that Greece is done, and now even the traditional long-term holders have thrown in the towel: the entire Greek curve has melted up more than our own S&P - Bloomberg now notes that even US accounts whose risk memory is non-existent, may not be willing buyers of Greek debt. Of course Greece can join the SEC in blaming the shorts, but that's an old tune. And the biggest and most supreme irony, bankingnews.gr reports that Greece is now seeking emergency capital from Abu Dhabi and other Arabic sources... As if they didn't have a Dubai of their own.
Vietnam Begins to Lure Business Away from China(Fund My Mutual Fund)
The communist nation drew 13.5 percent of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ foreign direct investment pool in 2008, up from 4.4 percent two years earlier, according to the 10-member group. And its allure may be rising, judging from a December survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. Vietnam is a preferred destination for businesses looking to relocate from China, Asia’s biggest investment recipient, the report said. Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, is scheduled to open a $1 billion testing facility in Ho Chi Minh City this year that will employ about 4,000 people. Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s second-biggest maker of mobile phones, opened a $1 billion factory in Vietnam six months ago. The number of foreign companies in China with plans to relocate plants inland or outside the country because of rising costs doubled last year.
Nightly Recap for April 6 doesn't exist because i only found 2 articles that struck me as important.
Have a Good Night
-K
Current Picks Updated 4-4-2010
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
IWM upgraded to BUY on Apr 01 at $68.43 (SELL Mar 19 at $67.41)
DRYS upgraded to BUY on Mar 29th at $5.88 (SELL Mar 25 at $5.66)
SRS upgraded to BUY on Mar 31st at $6.04 (SELL Feb 16 at $7.83)
REW upgraded to BUY on Apr 1st at $21.06 (SELL Feb 26 at $23.86)
DIG upgraded to BUY on Mar 30th at $34.27 (SELL Mar 19 at $33.97)
URE downgraded to SELL on Mar 31st at $8.14 (BUY Feb 16 at $6.38)
JNK downgraded to SELL on Apr 1st at $39.51 (BUY Feb 17 at $37.97)
HYG downgraded to SELL on Mar 31st at $87.50 (BUY Feb 17 at $85.38)
DUG downgraded to SELL on Mar 30th at $12.36 (BUY Mar 19 at $12.40)
SMN downgraded to SELL on Mar 29th at $6.99 (BUY Mar 19 at $7.37)
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K
Nightly Recap 3-31-2010
Market Summary:
DOW -50.79 (10,856.63)
S&P -3.84 (1,169.43)
Nasdaq -12.73 (2,397.96)
____________
Disclaimer:
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
___________
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Ben Bernanke's Mortgage Buying Will Be Missed (Until Round 2 Begins) (Business Insider)
The mortgage backed security (MBS) purchase program began in earnest on March 18, 2009, when Fed Chairman Bernanke announced an expansion of the program to the size limit of $1.25 trillion. The result of that program saw the S&P 500 rise 55.08% between March 18 and today (March 31, 2010), its end. What will the world be like after?
Obama to Open Offshore Areas to Oil Drilling for First Time (NYT)
The proposal — a compromise that will please oil companies and domestic drilling advocates but anger some residents of affected states and many environmental organizations — would end a longstanding moratorium on oil exploration along the East Coast from the northern tip of Delaware to the central coast of Florida, covering 167 million acres of ocean.
Chicago PMI Dissapoints (Econompic)
Investors were also disappointed Wednesday by a survey of Chicago-area purchasing managers that showed U.S. business activity continued to expand in March, but at a slower pace than the previous month. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer slipped to 58.8 in March, from a nearly five-year high of 62.6 in February. Economists expected a reading of 60.8.
Still, Croft noted that a reading above 50 still reflects expansion. "We think the economy is marching forward here, but not at an extremely fast pace," he said.
ADP Employment... Not Yet "Back in Black" (Econompic)
While many are waiting for Friday’s Payroll figure to tell them the state of the US labor market, I’m going to rely on today’s ADP report as a better gauge. That is because it is private sector based and thus won’t be distorted by the likely 100k+ adds of government census workers and the “methodology used to construct it” takes out most of the impact of the Feb snow storms and March snapback. It turns out that +40,000 was a bit optimistic as ADP showed a contraction of another 23,000 jobs. If these figures are to be believed (we will see "official figures" Friday), then we may have to wait for April for the private sector to stop contracting.
Market Call:Down(Zen Trader)
On a daily time frame I received my sell signal today and picked up DXD & SDS. We’ve been trading in a range with multiple distribution days this past week and it appears we’re in for some more selling. Could I be wrong and we rally? For sure. However, a number of other signals are pointing down.
World Economy:
European Unemployment to 11 1/2 Year High (EconomPic)
Euro zone inflation was much higher than expected in March and the unemployment rate reached 10 percent in February, data showed on Wednesday, highlighting the fragility of economic recovery.
The IMF Warns About German Banks... And That's Bad News For France's Too (Business Insider)
Mike O'Rourke of BTIG spotlights some interesting comments from a recently released IMF report (.pdf) on Germany:
“Simulation exercises suggest that German banks could suffer significant losses from commercial real estate investments in the U.S. and Spain, and more generally from exposures to Southern Europe. The simulations also suggest that a reassessment of risks associated with claims on Southern Europe could have a large impact on capital flows within Europe, as German (and also French) banks would significantly reduce their foreign claims to restore capital ratios.”
Interesting Links:
The Story Of Bottled Water (2010)
The Story of Bottled Water, released on March 22, 2010 (World Water Day) employs the Story of Stuff style to tell the story of manufactured demand—how you get Americans to buy more than half a billion bottles of water every week when it already flows from the tap. Over five minutes, the film explores the bottled water industrys attacks on tap water and its use of seductive, environmental-themed advertising to cover up the mountains of plastic waste it produces.
Have a Good Night
-K
Nightly Recap 3-30-2010
Market Summary:
DOW +11.56 (10,907.42)
S&P -0.05 (1,173.27)
Nasdaq +6.33 (2,410.69)
____________
Disclaimer:
Open Positions: SRS at 5.97
___________
Nightly News Links
US Economy:
Downtown New York Office Vacancy Rate Spikes To 9/11 Levels (Zero Hedge)
Bloomberg TV reports that the office vacancy rate in downtown NY has dropped to September 11th levels, and is about to pass 14%.
SPX Struggling at 1180 (The Art Of Trading)
"The SPX has attempted several times to crack thru 1180 and seems to be having trouble. I think it's best to sit in cash or be very nimble if you wanna play the short side. 1150 is very strong support for the SPX and pullbacks there would likely see some solid bounce i imagine. If i had it my way, i'd love to see the indexes pullback for another few more days. As i type this, i am noticing lots of stocks turning deeper into the red yet the indexes are only down slightly. I think CASH IS KING and look to buy stocks on dips!"
Interesting Links:
22 Storms in NE: Winter 2009-2010 Radar Loop (AccuWeather)
Today what could be the last Nor'easter of the season is affecting the Northeastern U.S. It's interesting if you compare the heavy rain area for today's storm with the heavy snow area from this winter, they are very similar. Major storms are continuing to move up the East Coast as they have all season, it's just warmer now so we're seeing rain instead of snow.* These winter storms have dropped 30-40 inches of rain (and liquid snow) in the I-95 corridor, which would normally only receive 20-25 inches over the winter.
That is all for tonight, very boring night link-wise, weather wise and market wise.
Have a Good Night and here's to a more exciting Wednesday.
-K
Current Picks Updated 3-28-2010
The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.
IYR downgraded to SELL on Mar 26th at $50.10 (BUY Feb 16 at $44.40)
AAPL upgraded to BUY on Mar 22nd at $224.75 (SELL Mar 19 at $222.30)
Not much action this week but many equities are giving a sign of rolling over (dont be surprised if you see over a dozen stock upgrades and downgrades one weekend)
As for AAPL i think the sudden turnaround of signal seems to have been caused by unexpected demand for the iPad.
Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!
Have a good weekend.
-K


