Apple Poised For a Big Move $AAPL
I have been watching Apple Inc. ( $AAPL ) form a symmetrical triangle for the past two months. This is a Continuation Pattern, which means that the triangle is used as a way to head higher if the trend has been upwards and with AAPL it has been.
A symmetrical triangle is generally regarded as a period of consolidation before the price moves beyond one of the identified trendlines.The sharp price movement that often follows a breakout of this formation can be captured by traders who are able to identify the pattern early enough.
The Symmetrical triangle pattern needs to have a few things working for it and we will check them off here.
1. Trend Should be at least a few months old: Check !AAPL is from march to december.
2. Duration of pattern should be at least 3 weeks old: Check! This pattern is 6 weeks old.
3. Breakout occurs between 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern: Check! It's about 3/4 of the way.
So now that we checked a few major points off let's look at a price target. We take the distance from the widest end of the triangle and in this case is around $20.
From the breakout at around $200, this being a bullish trend apple has been in we add $20 to the upside and put it at ~$220 for a potential breakout target.
There are a few hurdles here for AAPL though the $207-208 area is major resistance so if it can break that $220 is well in sight.
I bought a January $230 Call option at 0.23 to prepare for the move instead of putting major capital in the stock
Here is the chart (Click to Enlarge)
Update: I tried posting it last night but my host was down so i gave up. $AAPL is currently at ~$207.50 (in between the resistance I mentioned)
I have also sold my Call options for a hefty 140% Profit from yesterday's buy-in price, if Apple breaks above 208 I might be re-buying some.
Merry Christmas!!
$VION; A perfect trade using the Morning Star Pattern
Today I had a chance to experience those special conditions that cause a day trade to turn into great profits.
The stock chosen was VION. It was down 45% for the day on no news. (It is a Pharmaceutical so I thought some bad drug news came out).
As I watched the price slide down like a waterfall I saw a reversal form. This reversal in candlestick patterns is called the Morning Star.
The patterns is a bottom reversal signal. It is most effective following an obvious downtrend (in this case from 6.50 to 2.20)
According to Candlestick Trading Forum:
The Longer the black candle and the white candle, the more forceful the reversal.
The Pattern psychology for this specific pattern says that when the price goes down fast sellers get panicky. They keep selling off and as they are doing that bulls begin to step in.
Now that I have explained the pattern I used time to explain the entry and exit signals.
Entry 1: 100 shares at 2.90
This was an initial entry to test the playing field.
Entry 2: 100 shares at 3.50
I was looking for price to close above 3.25 for 2 consecutive candles to buy into strength. 3.25 if you can spot it is a resistance from earlier candlesticks.
Exit 1: 100 shares at 4.01
4 is a round number so that makes it psychological for people to dump shares
Exit 2: 100 shares at 4.53
Looking at the far left 4.53 is around where the 2nd large red candle begins. and if you look up further more candles tend to end around 4.75.
Initially I had the limit sell order at 4.74 but I then decided not to push my luck.
Conclusion: After concluding the trade I watched the price go at high as 4.90 then in one big swing it crashed back down to 4.
Overall it was a great risk reward ratio and a well thought out trade. Morning star followed by an initial entry to test strength of the pattern and if it goes your way add another position which will allow you to scale out. Now this did take 2 day trades out so if you have under $25k account you will only have 3 trades in 5 days so it's really not ideal to do every day.
Here is the image to illustrate all the text in this post. (Click to Enlarge)
Hope you enjoyed it and while I do understand this is not a stock pick because it is already gone I hope it serves as a teaching tool to how simple trading can be at times.
-K
8-20-2009.. another repeat of 7-13-2009 ?
If you have been following my current picks page you might have noticed that most of the symbols received buy signals on 7-13-2009 which is when the March rally was coming to a correction but then bounced. Will we have another case of this with 8-20-2009?
I was hoping we wouldn't that is why I posted those charts yesterday thinking we had topped. Well my automated strategy was saying otherwise and I completely Ignored it.
Normally I would just update the current picks page but this time around I have decided to make a blog post.
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Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
$SPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$INDU |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$COMPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QQQQ |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
IWM |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SPY |
8-20-2009 |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
IYR |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
AAPL |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DRYS |
8-14-2009 |
|
|
SDS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SRS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SSO |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SKF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
UYG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
URE |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
JNK |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
HYG |
8-7-2009 |
|
|
REW |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QID |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
QLD |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
XLF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DIG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DUG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SMN |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
VXX |
|
8-19-2009 |
The VIX ETF signaled a sell before the rest of the signals came in the following day. That is interesting.
-K
Summary of picks from yesterday
Yesterday’s picks turned out to be right on. Although with pathetic moves, AMD gained its way up. It has been trying to break its new resistance at $4.50 majority of the day. Unfortunately, I followed my plan and sold it in the morning to break even (including commission) because I did not have any more patience from watching it a day before. If I would have kept it for the day and trust my own gut, I could have made easy $0.2501 per share (or 6%). I hope some of you had more patience and easily profited on AMD. The lesson to be learned from this is that I’m very impatient trader.
AIB is hanging strong. Even though I intended to keep it for a longer period of time, I sold it with $0.26 per share profit (or 9%) because I needed net liquidity for other trades I did today. With that said, AIB is still a keeper and I will very likely get back into this stock some time this or next week.
| Company | Buy Date | Sell Date | Buy Price | Sell Price | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 5/18/09 | 5/19/09 | $4.1399 | $4.15 | - |
| AIB | 5/18/09 | 5/19/09 | $2.89 | $3.15 | 9% |
Although single digit, 9% profit overnight is always nice.
Let me know what you think about those two picks in the comment box.
Stock Alerts of the Week May 11 – May 15 2009
WoW what a sea of sell signals there was this week. This is the longest sell list I have seen.
Of Course this meant BUY for the short ETF's which you will see below with exception to ICE (not a short ETF) which seems to be in its own little world up in the ICE(y) north pole.
Picks of the week of May 11th to May 15th 2009
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Buy Price |
Sell Date |
Sell Price |
|
$SPX |
5-13-2009 |
905.40 |
||
|
$INDU |
5-13-2009 |
8461.88 |
||
|
$COMPX |
5-12-2009 |
1743.52 |
||
|
IWM |
5-12-2009 |
50.82 |
||
|
SPY |
5-13-2009 |
90.01 |
||
|
IYR |
5-12-2009 |
34.00 |
||
|
AAPL |
5-12-2009 |
129.71 |
||
|
BBT |
5-11-2009 |
25.02 |
||
|
BCS |
5-12-2009 |
16.87 |
||
|
BAC |
5-13-2009 |
11.95 |
||
|
ICE |
5-12-2009 |
93.28 |
|
|
|
ING |
5-13-2009 |
9.56 |
||
|
FAZ |
|
5-14-2009 |
5.81 |
|
|
F |
5-12-2009 |
5.77 |
||
|
SDS |
5-13-2009 |
59.68 |
||
|
SRS |
5-13-2009 |
22.81 |
||
|
SSO |
5-13-2009 |
25.02 |
||
|
SKF |
5-13-2009 |
47.37 |
||
|
UYG |
5-13-2009 |
3.92 |
||
|
URE |
5-12-2009 |
3.97 |
||
|
URG |
5-14-2009 |
1.04 |
||
|
UNG |
5-15-2009 |
16.19 |
||
|
JNK |
5-15-2009 |
33.60 |
||
|
HYG |
5-13-2009 |
76.52 |
||
|
FSLR |
5-13-2009 |
187.05 |
||
|
V |
5-12-2009 |
65.85 |
||
|
ICO |
5-13-2009 |
2.93 |
||
|
TZA |
5-13-2009 |
28.36 |
I hope you are enjoying the picks so far. Without suggestions and comments I cannot improve this blog so I strongly encourage comments.
-K
Stock Alerts of the Week May 4 – May 8 2009
Last week's picks have so far turned out to be good. DRYS is up almost 30% since signal.
Let's move to the score card. 5 positive gains of over 10% each. BAC signal got changed to a buy from a sell just 2 cents difference, and $BKX is acting up in my charting software so I will just eliminate it from watchlist.
Picks of the week of May 4th to May 8th 2009
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Buy Price |
Sell Date |
Sell Price |
|
QQQQ |
|
|
5-7-2009 |
34.29 |
|
BAC |
5-4-2009 |
8.82 |
|
|
|
REW |
5-7-2009 |
48.31 |
|
|
|
MOV |
|
|
5-5-2009 |
8.98 |
|
DRYS |
|
|
5-8-2009 |
8.36 |
|
URE |
5-8-2009 |
3.70 |
|
|
|
CFX |
|
|
5-7-2009 |
8.50 |
I hope you are enjoying the picks so far. And just let me know about any suggestions on the comment box
-K
First Forward Testing of the system a Success [MOV]
Forward testing is when you use a strategy and instead of back-testing it with previous data you actually test it going forward and preferably with real money.
For my new system MOV became that victim stock to be tested.
I first got a buy signal on April 17 2009 (Bought on the 20th at market open), i got in at 7.67.
I got a sell signal on May 5th 2009 and I sold at 8.81 with a market order.
I got about 14% profit on a 19 day long trade.
I don't have a chart to post with this one but just wanted to say this first forward testing trade worked well.
Here's to more good trades.
-K
Stock Alerts of the Week April 27 – May 1 2009
As I stated in my latest blog post I wanted to begin giving stock picks based on my trading system.
I have created a page above with all the picks and wouldn't mind people asking for symbols to put on watch list.
I will also try to post a week in review with the signals given out for the week.
Here are the picks for April 27 to May 1st 2009
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Buy Price |
Sell Date |
Sell Price |
|
$BKX |
4-27-2009 |
34.54 |
||
|
BAC |
5-1-2009 |
8.84 |
||
|
DRYS |
4-30-2009 |
6.72 |
||
|
ICE |
4-29-2009 |
84.14 |
||
|
ING |
4-29-2009 |
8.34 |
||
|
UNG |
5-1-2009 |
13.72 |
||
|
ICO |
4-29-2009 |
1.90 |
As always these are picks but I am not responsible for any financial losses you make following these picks. I wouldn't mind a share of your gains though.
-K
Current Picks
LAST UPDATE: 9-25-2009
9-24-2009 is full of new signals, mostly sell.
This page is intended to provide buy and sell signals given by a strategy.
Those who like my calls can follow or at least consider the alerts; those that think this is all fake can keep opinions to themselves and check the info page. Amount of time in the market using this system is about 38% on average which means you are not in at all times. It is not a buy and hold strategy nor is it a day trading strategy unless very rarely a buy and a sell signal occur on the same day.
I am only giving the latest signal for each stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)
| Symbol | Buy Date | Sell Date |
| $SPX | 9-24-2009 | |
| $INDU | 9-24-2009 | |
| $COMPX | 9-24-2009 | |
| QQQQ | 9-24-2009 | |
| IWM | 9-24-2009 | |
| SPY | 9-24-2009 |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)
| Symbol | Buy Date | Sell Date |
| IYR | 9-24-2009 | |
| AAPL | 9-4-2009 | |
| DRYS | 9-23-2009 | |
| SDS | 9-24-2009 | |
| SRS | 9-24-2009 | |
| SSO | 9-24-2009 | |
| SKF | 9-24-2009 | |
| UYG | 9-24-2009 | |
| URE | 9-24-2009 | |
| JNK | 9-8-2009 | |
| HYG | 9-8-2009 | |
| REW | 9-25-2009 | |
| QID | 9-24-2009 | |
| QLD | 9-24-2009 | |
| XLF | 9-24-2009 | |
| DIG | 9-24-2009 | |
| DUG | 9-24-2009 | |
| SMN | 9-24-2009 | |
| VXX | 8-27-2009 |
Stock tips from the Freak strategy
After SKF's latest blunder in which I called the sell-off then couldn't resist the LOW LOW price of $155, I set off to design a strategy that overtime would bring consistent growth. I am using a 4hour interval for the strategy so it really isn't day-trading but also it's not long term investment (like those exist much anymore).
The idea is to give stock tips when the strategy throws me a Buy signal then to call the selling point when the strategy yells SELL.
Now If i use the S&P 500 or the Russel or any other index (all the stocks within it), I will get a lot of buy and sell signals that will drive me crazy.
I'm wondering if any of you have ideas on which stocks to put on watch list. I will also need to create a section on this page to show the buy and sell signals with their dates as well as how much gain/loss occurred.
I think i might be going a bit over my head as many people do this for a fee (Timothy Sykes anyone?) but I will think this through for the next week or two and then decide what to do. Your comments are really needed this time especially for ideas on which stocks to put on the alert list.
Till next Time,
-K (The busy man)
SKF down to earth ready to refuel?
On Friday March 6th I made a new blog post calling SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought.
Now, 10 days later I want to put my opinion down in writing. SKF went from over $260 to $126 (so far) that is more than 50% off (around $13.40/day for past 10 days).
When I first posted my opinion i was being generous and looking at $182-$186 for the move down to earth.
There was an important fib retracement at $155 and one at $120.
Being a recent fib retracement follower I have a position in the $150-155 range, toady SKF didn't go as low as $120 or i would have doubled down.
If this is the short term bottom for SKF the move up seems to hit $213, I am not good with timing the market with dates so i don't want to give misleading info.
to recap.. SKF trying to refuel? Buy at $155 or $120 with a target at $213
I am including a visual as always (Click to enlarge)
Disclosure: As i stated in my post I have a position at $150's range and was looking to double it at $120.
-K
SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought?
I hope you saw my post about my February performance. Most of my gains were thanks to shorting the financial sector via SKF.
I have still kept an eye on the ETF after selling it and is now is extremely overbought on many levels. I had a target of $250-255 for it but I did not hold my shares past $200. Now that my target has been reached I am looking for SKF to come back down to earth, I am looking for at least $182-186 range.
With the market crashing down so fast there is not much incentive to go more short as I am sure SEC has plans for a no shorting rule or at least something to stop the bleeding. That concludes this post and I will rest my case by providing you the chart which I am basing my case on.
Below I am attaching a chart showing the RSI being overbought but also SKF itself going over the Bollinger bands that I use.
If you are looking to buy into SKF (besides trading it for quick scalps) then either stay away from it or just take the chart into consideration. (Click to Enlarge)
As always, I merely post my opinions on here so I am not responsible for anyone's financial decisions.
Have a good day,
-K
TSO Watch (in the near future)
TSO watch for a bullish harmonic pattern in the future (March-April maybe?)
Drawing fib on it in january there was a harmonic bearish pattern from 15-29th. That completed and stock fell temporarily then 2 weeks from earnings prices usually go up in buy the rumor sell the news.
If from 19 to 13 drop is as low as it will go right now then i have 2 choices for the highs.
(a) 61.8% is $16.83 Target then reverse to $10.87 which might prove a good entry for the next wave up.
(b) 78.6% is $17.84 Target then retrace to $11.85 which might prove a good entry for the next wave up.
This sets up a large bullish pattern which is "harmonic" to see if it holds.
Keep in mind I am using 60mins and not daily observation but 10.78-11.85 is the Possible reversal zone for TSO.
Here comes the chart (without dates below because I don't want you thinking at those certain dates the prices will match up. (Click to enlarge)
Hope you enjoy and always feel free to leave a comment.
-K
10% Gain in a day when people panicked
This is feeling like a monthly posting but I assure you I'm getting back into it as I have finally started making trades again.
I just made 10% of $1000 in 1 day. (small position)
Bought GE yesterday morning at $20 sold at open today for $22.25.
After I bought it yesterday I went to class and never followed it. Today I just sold it. So in 5 min. work $100. The market is still not stable and won't be for a while so I will make plays like this often.
Earnings for Q3 have started and Bank of America blew it. If more blow it then the market will be very volatile for a while. I love it. How have you done recently?
Below is the Profit triangle I drew around my GE purchase.
Good Luck and I hope to resume regular weekly (at least) postings.
Investing in a Bearish Market
During hard times like the ones we are seeing now with the economy, one thing i am beginning to like is Ultra Short ETF's. They are basically bets against certain sectors or indexes. There are also ProShares which bet for the market to go up.
One of my latest moves into ETF's is buying (SKF) Ultrashort Financials on August 14, 2008 . As you can see from the table i have provided (hopefully it displays decent in most readers) I am looking at the Point & Figure Patterns for the Top 40 stocks market cap wise in the financial sector. FRE and FNM are not up at the top but have been talked a lot about in recent news.
Before i get you confused as to what the signals mean I will provide a brief description of each, courtesy of stockcharts.com
- The double bottom breakdown implies that the buyers who were supporting the price are no longer able to create demand that is more than the supply, and prices are breaking down.
- A triple bottom breakdown is similar to a double bottom breakdown except that the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down.
- A double bottom followed by another double bottom, or three bottoms, each lower than the previous is recognized as an descending triple bottom breakdown. The idea is that supply is continuing to outstrip demand on an ongoing basis.
- A bull trap is a triple top breakout followed by a reversal. The breakout is possibly due to buy stops being hit just above the resistance level, and the quick reversal suggests lower prices ahead.
- The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future.
- Bullish signal reversed pattern is a series of rising tops and bottoms that finally soaks up all demand and the double bottom breakdown at the end signals that now supply is outstripping demand.
Enjoy the table I have created. As you can see many bearish signals were given on August 13 so I went ahead and bought SKF on Aug 14 at $123.50.
|
Top Bearish Financials |
||
|
Symbol |
Signal |
Date Signal Spotted |
|
Triple Bottom Breakdown |
August 6, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 7, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 8, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 11, 2008 |
|
|
Descending Tripple Bottom Breakdown |
August 12, 2008 |
|
|
Triple Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Spread Triple Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Bull Trap |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Bearish Triangle |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
High Pole Warning |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Bullish Signal Reversed |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
High Pole Warning |
August 13, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 14, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 14, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 18, 2008 |
|
|
Double Bottom Breakdown |
August 18, 2008 |
|
This is the longest post i've written and I'm sure some of you want to ask questions or make comments, please let's discuss.
