blog post

A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

Posted by Investing Freak on October 02, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post  on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM

It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th  “S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable.” ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)

We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.)  When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a “Kicker Bullish“.
That deserved its own post entitled “$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range… which way will it Break?” Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.

The final blog post was written and titled “The One Day Rally Is Over” In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn’t satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks.  The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy.  With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.

On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points.  the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
A-week-in-review
Have a good one,
-K

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Two picks: AIB and AMD

Posted by Kamil on May 18, 2009
General / Comments Off on Two picks: AIB and AMD

This is my first blog post here. As a friendly note, I assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Do not forget, this website is solely for entertainment purpose only.

Today the trading day started with generally high buying demand and ended the same. My two picks for today are: AIB and AMD.

Company Buy Date Sell Date Buy Price Sell Price Gain/Loss
AMD 5/18/09 $4.1399
AIB 5/18/09 $2.89

All indicators aside, I think AIB is one of the financials that is undervalued. According to Zacks.com, in its first quarter trading update, AIB “announced that operating profits before bad debt provisions were higher than the year-ago quarter, reflecting strong performance of its Capital Markets and Global Treasury divisions.” That not to say that they do not have problems- they still experience declines in operating profits, net interest margins shrink, etc. The point is not many institutions are problem-less. As of the close today, the stock is at $2.90 so it is still a penny stock. Most likely it will be a longer term play for me.


AMD is a pure technical play. It has a major support somewhere between $4.07 and $4.12 (as indicated on the graph below). I bought it at $4.1399 hoping that it will break its trend of fluctuating and find its way up. It did surge, but not as high as I was expecting. The bears and bulls are still fighting. Depending on pre-market, I will most likely sell this stock in order to break even (including commissions).

amd-5-18-09

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SKF down to earth ready to refuel?

Posted by Investing Freak on March 16, 2009
General / 1 Comment

On Friday March 6th I made a new blog post calling SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought.

Now, 10 days later I want to put my opinion down in writing.  SKF went from over $260 to $126 (so far) that is more than 50% off (around $13.40/day for past 10 days).
When I first posted my opinion i was being generous and looking at $182-$186 for the move down to earth.
There was an important fib retracement at $155 and one at $120.

Being a recent fib retracement follower I have a position in the $150-155 range, toady SKF didn’t go as low as $120 or i would have doubled down.
If this is the short term bottom for SKF the  move up seems to hit $213, I am not good with timing the market with dates so i don’t want to give misleading info.

to recap.. SKF trying to refuel? Buy at $155 or $120 with a target at $213

I am including a visual as always (Click to enlarge)

skf-1003bb-march162009
Disclosure: As i stated in my post I have a position at $150’s range and was looking to double it at $120.

-K

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