Ben Bernanke

Nightly Recap 3-31-2010

Posted by Investing Freak on March 31, 2010
General / 2 Comments

Market Summary:
DOW      -50.79 (10,856.63)
S&P        -3.84 (1,169.43)
Nasdaq  -12.73 (2,397.96)
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Disclaimer:
Open Positions:  SRS at 5.97
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Nightly News Links

US Economy:

Ben Bernanke’s Mortgage Buying Will Be Missed (Until Round 2 Begins) (Business Insider)
The mortgage backed security (MBS) purchase program began in earnest on March 18, 2009, when Fed Chairman Bernanke announced an expansion of the program to the size limit of $1.25 trillion. The result of that program saw the S&P 500 rise 55.08% between March 18 and today (March 31, 2010), its end. What will the world be like after?

Obama to Open Offshore Areas to Oil Drilling for First Time (NYT)
The proposal — a compromise that will please oil companies and domestic drilling advocates but anger some residents of affected states and many environmental organizations — would end a longstanding moratorium on oil exploration along the East Coast from the northern tip of Delaware to the central coast of Florida, covering 167 million acres of ocean.

Chicago PMI Dissapoints (Econompic)
Investors were also disappointed Wednesday by a survey of Chicago-area purchasing managers that showed U.S. business activity continued to expand in March, but at a slower pace than the previous month. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer slipped to 58.8 in March, from a nearly five-year high of 62.6 in February. Economists expected a reading of 60.8.
Still, Croft noted that a reading above 50 still reflects expansion. “We think the economy is marching forward here, but not at an extremely fast pace,” he said.

ADP Employment… Not Yet “Back in Black” (Econompic)
While many are waiting for Friday’s Payroll figure to tell them the state of the US labor market, I’m going to rely on today’s ADP report as a better gauge. That is because it is private sector based and thus won’t be distorted by the likely 100k+ adds of government census workers and the “methodology used to construct it” takes out most of the impact of the Feb snow storms and March snapback. It turns out that +40,000 was a bit optimistic as ADP showed a contraction of another 23,000 jobs. If these figures are to be believed (we will see “official figures” Friday), then we may have to wait for April for the private sector to stop contracting.

Market Call:Down(Zen Trader)
On a daily time frame I received my sell signal today and picked up DXD & SDS. We’ve been trading in a range with multiple distribution days this past week and it appears we’re in for some more selling. Could I be wrong and we rally? For sure. However, a number of other signals are pointing down.

World Economy:

European Unemployment to 11 1/2 Year High (EconomPic)
Euro zone inflation was much higher than expected in March and the unemployment rate reached 10 percent in February, data showed on Wednesday, highlighting the fragility of economic recovery.

The IMF Warns About German Banks… And That’s Bad News For France’s Too (Business Insider)
Mike O’Rourke of BTIG spotlights some interesting comments from a recently released IMF report (.pdf) on Germany:
“Simulation exercises suggest that German banks could suffer significant losses from commercial real estate investments in the U.S. and Spain, and more generally from exposures to Southern Europe. The simulations also suggest that a reassessment of risks associated with claims on Southern Europe could have a large impact on capital flows within Europe, as German (and also French) banks would significantly reduce their foreign claims to restore capital ratios.”

Interesting Links:

The Story Of Bottled Water (2010)
The Story of Bottled Water, released on March 22, 2010 (World Water Day) employs the Story of Stuff style to tell the story of manufactured demand—how you get Americans to buy more than half a billion bottles of water every week when it already flows from the tap. Over five minutes, the film explores the bottled water industrys attacks on tap water and its use of seductive, environmental-themed advertising to cover up the mountains of plastic waste it produces.
httpvh://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Se12y9hSOM0}

Have a Good Night

-K

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Nightly Recap 3-17-2010

Posted by Investing Freak on March 17, 2010
General / 1 Comment

Market Summary:
DOW      +47.69 (10,733.67)
S&P        +6.75 (1,166.21)
Nasdaq  +11.08 (2,389.09)

Nightly News Links

US Economy:

PPI Is Stabilizing (Econompic)
Wholesale prices fell a larger-than-expected 0.6% in February after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices falling 2.9%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. This is the largest decline since last July. The producer price index has risen 4.4% in the past year, the government said.

437 Retail Store Closings Signal Major Brand Restructuring (RIS)
The spring thaw can’t come fast enough for retailers that haven’t yet adjusted to a retail landscape populated with bargain hunting shoppers that have limited discretionary spending. Find out which major chains, including Abercrombie & Fitch and Williams-Sonoma, are closing poorly performing stores with leases about to expire, and why one global retailer is exiting the U.S.

Now Bernanke Wants To Eliminate Reserve Requirements Completely (The Economic Collapse)
Banks have always been required to keep a small fraction of the money deposited with them for a reserve, but were allowed to loan out the rest.  But now it turns out that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to completely eliminate minimum reserve requirements, which he says “impose costs and distortions on the banking system”. At least that is what a footnote to his testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on February 10th says. So is Bernanke actually proposing that banks should be allowed to have no reserves at all?

Interesting Reads:

Tracking a Century of American Eating (Amber Waves)
A century of ERS’s food availability data reveals how the sometimes conflicting, sometimes reinforcing technological, political, social, and economic forces affect the types and amounts of commodities available for consumption. The following examples illustrate some of these forces and their impacts.

The Best 2-day Indicator (Trading SPY) (MarketSci Blog)
MarketSci puts four often used 2-day indicators to the test to see which has been the “best” measure of how overbought/oversold the market was over the last decade.

In Dod We Trust – The Daily Show (Video)
Chris Dodd introduces financial reform legislation and Jon Stewart provides another hilarious clip.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
In Dodd We Trust
www.thedailyshow.com

Michael Lewis on The Daily Show  (Video)
Michael Lewis talks about the financial crisis and subprime mortgages with the Jon Stewart. I love The daily show when they talk about finance.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Michael Lewis
www.thedailyshow.com

Have a Good Night

-K

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