Bear

Shooting Stars are everywhere. Is it time to turn into a growling Bear?

Posted by Investing Freak on August 24, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Shooting Stars are everywhere. Is it time to turn into a growling Bear?

I noticed something strange today looking at my favorite timeframe. (half a day ūüôā )

Stars were shooting everywhere.
Many symbols like $SPX $SPY $INDU $OEX $COMPX $QQQQ etc had the shooting star pattern to an extent.
I chose to include only 3 to keep it simple

Now before I insert the image I would like to explain what a shooting star pattern is thanks to Stockcharts.com

Shooting Star: A single day pattern that can appear in an uptrend. It opens higher, trades much higher, then closes near its open. It looks just like the Inverted Hammer except that it is bearish.

Here is a visual aid to go with the definition.  (Click To Enlarge)

shootingstar

Now bear in mind this is my own opinion of what I see happening. My system has yet to give a sell signal but today I did receive a sell in GLD so if gold is losing value that means market is going down (most times that’s the correlation I’ve seen.)

Now listen up you Goldman Sachs!  Stop reading my blog and proving me wrong. Let the market go down like it wants to.
Thank you very much.

-K

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Is the end (of this prolonged rally) Finally Here?

Posted by Investing Freak on August 20, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Is the end (of this prolonged rally) Finally Here?

Whether you have been a bull or a bear since March you have to be worried about what will happen from here.
Bulls might lose if market goes down and corrects itself, Bears might keep losing money being short (unless they hedge then they are neutral players).

Here is a chart of the S&P futures that I found interesting how it topped around 3:31Pm at exactly the first Pivot Resistance (R1) or 1007.75. ¬†It’s been downhill from there so far.

Have we finally reached the top?

Have we finally reached the turning Point? (Click to Enlarge)

As I write this the ticker is heading towards 997.75 which is the first support for Friday.
UPDATE: WE HAVE HIT the first support line of 997.75 and might bounce or crash through.

Update #2: here I am 8 hours later and the futures have made a 360 degree turn. They now hit R1 (red line) of 1011.25.

es-topped-82009-2

What do you think? I am also long the Volatility Index (VIX) Via September 40 calls (got long today) because I think we are entering volatile markets again and that would be great.

-K

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UYG short term bounce next week?

Posted by Investing Freak on February 20, 2009
General / Comments Off on UYG short term bounce next week?

If you looked at my previous post I called for a break of support for S&P 500.

I didnt really set a target below but Matt Trivisonno had called this low back in October.

 768.67 РComing Soon to a Screen Near You  … a screen about 18 inches in front of your face that is. 768.67 was the S&P 500 intra-day low on October 10, 2002. That was the day that the last bear market ended.

Since that Call was made almost 5 months ago and things have gotten even worse now.. I don’t think the bear market will end here.

The interesting stock of the day is UYG
I have been looking at Fibonacci numbers lately and UYG has 2 targets which it hit.    One was at $2.39 and the otheer at $1.95.
I loaded up at 2.43 with an idea of doubling down at 1.95 but missed the the boat.
      If 1.95 is really a reversal zone there are a few projected upside targets.  Probably strongest resistance will be at
$2.61  (38.2% fib value)
$3.05  (61.8% fib value) also that would fill the gap-down UYG had on February 17  which could mean UYG then is free to begin another leg down to -zero-.
      If i were to be bullish on this ETF (which I am not at the moment)  other resistances above are $3.37  and the extreme $4.29.  I do not see these last 2 prices near term however.

Here is the chart to show you what I am looking at. Note: projected upside values are not shown.  (Click to Enlarge)

uyg-fib-retracement-feb20-2009

Sources:
Matt Trivisonno (768.67-Coming Soon to a Screen Near You)

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