Abercrombie & Fitch

ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch) – Technical & Quantitative Valuation Analysis

Posted by K on May 26, 2013
General / Comments Off on ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch) – Technical & Quantitative Valuation Analysis

UPDATE: Scroll to the end to see the May 2013 Chart after reading the entire story (if you want)

Abercrombie & Fitch’s Q3 earnings are out, and they’re up 40%, which has share prices up a whopping 34% today. – The Motley Fool

What’s there to do when you feel like you missed the boat? Backtrack and check out what you can learn from it so you can catch the next hot one of course.  Besides the Quarterly earnings its good to look at the annual data as well provided to us by Yahoo Finance.

 Technical View:
Each trader that uses technical charting has their own timeframe and indicators but after years of research and trials the 80/20 rule applies here too.  80% of the move can be guessed by 20% of the indicators.   The ones we use here at InvestingFreak are 50, 70, and 110 Exponential moving averages in the Weekly OHLC candlesticks.  We then apply trendlines to look for patterns as well as support and resistance.

Support: near the $30 level
Resistance: Downward trendline at $35
Resistance: EMA’s of (50) at $40.37, (70) at $42.56, (110) at $44.49
The support held and some resistance broke but ANF has a tough battle to fight the $42.50-$44.50 range technically speaking.

Quantitative View:
The Data for this part of the summary was pulled from yahoo finance and the last price was set at $31.18 to represent the day before the spike.  In this quant view the simple KISS approach was also implemented (Keep It Simple Stupid) and mainly the Balance Sheet and Income statements along with a few basic data points were used to come up with the conclusion.

Some of the basic results are highlighted below along with others that won’t be mentioned.  Overall quant score was a 75% which makes this stock a good investment based on the numbers provided.

 

Conclusion:
The results are mixed but unless $ANF can clear the $42.50-$44.50 range, the combined hybrid score leaves just too much downside to be had.

—————

May 2013 Update
Earnings got released again and they were worse than analysts expected but look at what has happened to ANF after it cleared the $44.50 resistance on the weekly (which is now support).

The $55 line is a bit of resistance but on the down side all moving averages will now act as support should ANF drop.

Thanks for reading.

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Nightly Recap 3-17-2010

Posted by K on March 17, 2010
General / 1 Comment

Market Summary:
DOW      +47.69 (10,733.67)
S&P        +6.75 (1,166.21)
Nasdaq  +11.08 (2,389.09)

Nightly News Links

US Economy:

PPI Is Stabilizing (Econompic)
Wholesale prices fell a larger-than-expected 0.6% in February after seasonable adjustments, with energy prices falling 2.9%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. This is the largest decline since last July. The producer price index has risen 4.4% in the past year, the government said.

437 Retail Store Closings Signal Major Brand Restructuring (RIS)
The spring thaw can’t come fast enough for retailers that haven’t yet adjusted to a retail landscape populated with bargain hunting shoppers that have limited discretionary spending. Find out which major chains, including Abercrombie & Fitch and Williams-Sonoma, are closing poorly performing stores with leases about to expire, and why one global retailer is exiting the U.S.

Now Bernanke Wants To Eliminate Reserve Requirements Completely (The Economic Collapse)
Banks have always been required to keep a small fraction of the money deposited with them for a reserve, but were allowed to loan out the rest.  But now it turns out that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke wants to completely eliminate minimum reserve requirements, which he says “impose costs and distortions on the banking system”. At least that is what a footnote to his testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on February 10th says. So is Bernanke actually proposing that banks should be allowed to have no reserves at all?

Interesting Reads:

Tracking a Century of American Eating (Amber Waves)
A century of ERS’s food availability data reveals how the sometimes conflicting, sometimes reinforcing technological, political, social, and economic forces affect the types and amounts of commodities available for consumption. The following examples illustrate some of these forces and their impacts.

The Best 2-day Indicator (Trading SPY) (MarketSci Blog)
MarketSci puts four often used 2-day indicators to the test to see which has been the “best” measure of how overbought/oversold the market was over the last decade.

In Dod We Trust – The Daily Show (Video)
Chris Dodd introduces financial reform legislation and Jon Stewart provides another hilarious clip.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
In Dodd We Trust
www.thedailyshow.com

Michael Lewis on The Daily Show  (Video)
Michael Lewis talks about the financial crisis and subprime mortgages with the Jon Stewart. I love The daily show when they talk about finance.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Michael Lewis
www.thedailyshow.com

Have a Good Night

-K

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