Fake correction followed by a fake rally?
The past 4 days The S&P and many other markets have traded within a very narrow range.
There have been doji candles galore. trendlines, averages, bullishness ratios and even the Elliot Wave expert said rally is ending and a correction will come sooner or later that will surpass the march low.
I have taken the liberty to put up a few $SPX charts with possible short term outcomes.
The big picture is in the first image (Click to Enlarge)
I am looking for the S&P to go to 1010 to lure in bears and then bounce off the trendline and make a higher high to fool the bulls and shake the bears. Then lastly (not in these pictures) I am looking at 950's as a conservative bet.
Here is a closer look short term view. Upside target is 1040-1050.
I hope you enjoy my opinion and feel free to comment your own.
-K
Shooting Stars are everywhere. Is it time to turn into a growling Bear?
I noticed something strange today looking at my favorite timeframe. (half a day 
)
Stars were shooting everywhere.
Many symbols like $SPX $SPY $INDU $OEX $COMPX $QQQQ etc had the shooting star pattern to an extent.
I chose to include only 3 to keep it simple
Now before I insert the image I would like to explain what a shooting star pattern is thanks to Stockcharts.com
Shooting Star: A single day pattern that can appear in an uptrend. It opens higher, trades much higher, then closes near its open. It looks just like the Inverted Hammer except that it is bearish.
Here is a visual aid to go with the definition. (Click To Enlarge)
Now bear in mind this is my own opinion of what I see happening. My system has yet to give a sell signal but today I did receive a sell in GLD so if gold is losing value that means market is going down (most times that's the correlation I've seen.)
Now listen up you Goldman Sachs! Stop reading my blog and proving me wrong. Let the market go down like it wants to.
Thank you very much.
-K
8-20-2009.. another repeat of 7-13-2009 ?
If you have been following my current picks page you might have noticed that most of the symbols received buy signals on 7-13-2009 which is when the March rally was coming to a correction but then bounced. Will we have another case of this with 8-20-2009?
I was hoping we wouldn't that is why I posted those charts yesterday thinking we had topped. Well my automated strategy was saying otherwise and I completely Ignored it.
Normally I would just update the current picks page but this time around I have decided to make a blog post.
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Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
$SPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$INDU |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
$COMPX |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QQQQ |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
IWM |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SPY |
8-20-2009 |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Sell Date |
|
IYR |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
AAPL |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DRYS |
8-14-2009 |
|
|
SDS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SRS |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SSO |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SKF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
UYG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
URE |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
JNK |
8-21-2009 |
|
|
HYG |
8-7-2009 |
|
|
REW |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
QID |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
QLD |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
XLF |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DIG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
DUG |
8-20-2009 |
|
|
SMN |
|
8-20-2009 |
|
VXX |
|
8-19-2009 |
The VIX ETF signaled a sell before the rest of the signals came in the following day. That is interesting.
-K
Is the end (of this prolonged rally) Finally Here?
Whether you have been a bull or a bear since March you have to be worried about what will happen from here.
Bulls might lose if market goes down and corrects itself, Bears might keep losing money being short (unless they hedge then they are neutral players).
Here is a chart of the S&P futures that I found interesting how it topped around 3:31Pm at exactly the first Pivot Resistance (R1) or 1007.75. It's been downhill from there so far.
Have we finally reached the turning Point? (Click to Enlarge)
As I write this the ticker is heading towards 997.75 which is the first support for Friday.
UPDATE: WE HAVE HIT the first support line of 997.75 and might bounce or crash through.
Update #2: here I am 8 hours later and the futures have made a 360 degree turn. They now hit R1 (red line) of 1011.25.
What do you think? I am also long the Volatility Index (VIX) Via September 40 calls (got long today) because I think we are entering volatile markets again and that would be great.
-K
Sell Tech?
If you check the Current Picks Tab you will see I have updated it again.
After running my strategy... $COMPX , $QQQQ, $IWM, $IYR, $QLD, $URE are all on the SELL list.
I am wondering if the tech sector (COMPX, QQQQ, QLD) is the first one to lead the next correction or if it is just lagging the seemingly never-ending rally of the current market.
Stay tuned and keep checking my twitter for more info. (either on the right column under "Latest Updates" or at http://www.twitter.com/investingfreak )
-K
Current Picks Page Updated
As you might or might not have been aware. I have a tab on my page with a select group of symbols that I throw up on my strategy and post signals every weekend.
I have been away for the past 3 weeks so I haven't been able to update it.
Click the link below to go to the page
http://investingfreak.com/current-picks/
Have a good weekend.
-K
Weekly Summary for 2009-07-04
- Bought a .VIXGF (VIX July 30 Call) at $1.46.. #
- Bought SDS (.SDSGC) July 55 Call at 1.75 yesterday and sold at 3.20 now. $110 (aka 50% profit) Love it! #
Weekly Summary for 2009-06-27
- I made a gutsy call on another blog June 16. I said that the market rally from march was dead.I based this on the daily chart. DOWN S&P !!! #
- Covered SPY puts for a nice 60% Gain !!! i'd take green $$ any day over wishful thinking. Note: Doesn't mean market will recover here though #
- Weird Eur/USD action something's gotta give... http://i41.tinypic.com/ajqbmo.png I hope #
- boarded the plane but its lame. I hope the flight is at least comfortable and safe. #
- reading investing literature while on vacation + a glass of wine = priceless.
wont be as active for few weeks but after that its go time! # - bought 100 shares HTZ at $7.96 goooo me #
Investing Freak is on Twitter
I do realize that I don't post at regular intervals but now I have set up a twitter account for the site where i can write down quick thoughts that aren't worth making a blog post about.
I hope those of you that have twitter can follow.
http://twitter.com/investingfreak
Other than that I will be taking a break until end of July by which time I hope to have some new posts to put up.
Take care.
-K
Summary of picks from yesterday
Yesterday’s picks turned out to be right on. Although with pathetic moves, AMD gained its way up. It has been trying to break its new resistance at $4.50 majority of the day. Unfortunately, I followed my plan and sold it in the morning to break even (including commission) because I did not have any more patience from watching it a day before. If I would have kept it for the day and trust my own gut, I could have made easy $0.2501 per share (or 6%). I hope some of you had more patience and easily profited on AMD. The lesson to be learned from this is that I’m very impatient trader.
AIB is hanging strong. Even though I intended to keep it for a longer period of time, I sold it with $0.26 per share profit (or 9%) because I needed net liquidity for other trades I did today. With that said, AIB is still a keeper and I will very likely get back into this stock some time this or next week.
| Company | Buy Date | Sell Date | Buy Price | Sell Price | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 5/18/09 | 5/19/09 | $4.1399 | $4.15 | - |
| AIB | 5/18/09 | 5/19/09 | $2.89 | $3.15 | 9% |
Although single digit, 9% profit overnight is always nice.
Let me know what you think about those two picks in the comment box.
Two picks: AIB and AMD
This is my first blog post here. As a friendly note, I assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. Do not forget, this website is solely for entertainment purpose only.
Today the trading day started with generally high buying demand and ended the same. My two picks for today are: AIB and AMD.
| Company | Buy Date | Sell Date | Buy Price | Sell Price | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 5/18/09 | - | $4.1399 | - | - |
| AIB | 5/18/09 | - | $2.89 | - | - |
All indicators aside, I think AIB is one of the financials that is undervalued. According to Zacks.com, in its first quarter trading update, AIB "announced that operating profits before bad debt provisions were higher than the year-ago quarter, reflecting strong performance of its Capital Markets and Global Treasury divisions." That not to say that they do not have problems- they still experience declines in operating profits, net interest margins shrink, etc. The point is not many institutions are problem-less. As of the close today, the stock is at $2.90 so it is still a penny stock. Most likely it will be a longer term play for me.
AMD is a pure technical play. It has a major support somewhere between $4.07 and $4.12 (as indicated on the graph below). I bought it at $4.1399 hoping that it will break its trend of fluctuating and find its way up. It did surge, but not as high as I was expecting. The bears and bulls are still fighting. Depending on pre-market, I will most likely sell this stock in order to break even (including commissions).
Stock Alerts of the Week May 11 – May 15 2009
WoW what a sea of sell signals there was this week. This is the longest sell list I have seen.
Of Course this meant BUY for the short ETF's which you will see below with exception to ICE (not a short ETF) which seems to be in its own little world up in the ICE(y) north pole.
Picks of the week of May 11th to May 15th 2009
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Buy Price |
Sell Date |
Sell Price |
|
$SPX |
5-13-2009 |
905.40 |
||
|
$INDU |
5-13-2009 |
8461.88 |
||
|
$COMPX |
5-12-2009 |
1743.52 |
||
|
IWM |
5-12-2009 |
50.82 |
||
|
SPY |
5-13-2009 |
90.01 |
||
|
IYR |
5-12-2009 |
34.00 |
||
|
AAPL |
5-12-2009 |
129.71 |
||
|
BBT |
5-11-2009 |
25.02 |
||
|
BCS |
5-12-2009 |
16.87 |
||
|
BAC |
5-13-2009 |
11.95 |
||
|
ICE |
5-12-2009 |
93.28 |
|
|
|
ING |
5-13-2009 |
9.56 |
||
|
FAZ |
|
5-14-2009 |
5.81 |
|
|
F |
5-12-2009 |
5.77 |
||
|
SDS |
5-13-2009 |
59.68 |
||
|
SRS |
5-13-2009 |
22.81 |
||
|
SSO |
5-13-2009 |
25.02 |
||
|
SKF |
5-13-2009 |
47.37 |
||
|
UYG |
5-13-2009 |
3.92 |
||
|
URE |
5-12-2009 |
3.97 |
||
|
URG |
5-14-2009 |
1.04 |
||
|
UNG |
5-15-2009 |
16.19 |
||
|
JNK |
5-15-2009 |
33.60 |
||
|
HYG |
5-13-2009 |
76.52 |
||
|
FSLR |
5-13-2009 |
187.05 |
||
|
V |
5-12-2009 |
65.85 |
||
|
ICO |
5-13-2009 |
2.93 |
||
|
TZA |
5-13-2009 |
28.36 |
I hope you are enjoying the picks so far. Without suggestions and comments I cannot improve this blog so I strongly encourage comments.
-K
S&P Rising Wedge Pattern
I wanted to post this chart of the S&P with the following indicators added.
Bollinger bands with 2 SD's and also the 36MA.
It is a 4 hour interval so every candlestick represents 4 hours.
2 candlesticks equal to a full day so that eliminates a lot of noise and allows me to see what happened the first part of the day and the last part.
I did get a temporary sell signal on the S&P today but that was before the second candlestick closed so it is not yet a Sell.
As always I will update the latest signals every weekend until I find more time to update more often.
(Click the chart to enlarge)
I hope you enjoy this chart and I really want your opinions on what to do with the direction of this blog and the types of things I post.
-K
Stock Alerts of the Week May 4 – May 8 2009
Last week's picks have so far turned out to be good. DRYS is up almost 30% since signal.
Let's move to the score card. 5 positive gains of over 10% each. BAC signal got changed to a buy from a sell just 2 cents difference, and $BKX is acting up in my charting software so I will just eliminate it from watchlist.
Picks of the week of May 4th to May 8th 2009
|
Symbol |
Buy Date |
Buy Price |
Sell Date |
Sell Price |
|
QQQQ |
|
|
5-7-2009 |
34.29 |
|
BAC |
5-4-2009 |
8.82 |
|
|
|
REW |
5-7-2009 |
48.31 |
|
|
|
MOV |
|
|
5-5-2009 |
8.98 |
|
DRYS |
|
|
5-8-2009 |
8.36 |
|
URE |
5-8-2009 |
3.70 |
|
|
|
CFX |
|
|
5-7-2009 |
8.50 |
I hope you are enjoying the picks so far. And just let me know about any suggestions on the comment box
-K
First Forward Testing of the system a Success [MOV]
Forward testing is when you use a strategy and instead of back-testing it with previous data you actually test it going forward and preferably with real money.
For my new system MOV became that victim stock to be tested.
I first got a buy signal on April 17 2009 (Bought on the 20th at market open), i got in at 7.67.
I got a sell signal on May 5th 2009 and I sold at 8.81 with a market order.
I got about 14% profit on a 19 day long trade.
I don't have a chart to post with this one but just wanted to say this first forward testing trade worked well.
Here's to more good trades.
-K
