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BP Cares about the small people

Thu, 17 Jun 2010 04:01:39 +0000

As you might have figured out by now, BP plc (ADR) Chairman and the CEO met with President Obama ONLY two months after the oil spill disaster.
Of course as I mentioned in the previous post BP now stands for Bad Publicity so nothing was unexpected on my end when the Chairman said: "I hear comments sometimes that large oil companies are greedy companies or don’t care, but that is not the case with BP. We care about the small people." Bad publicity this time will cause BP to buy google ads for keywords such as petite, small, midgets, oompa loompa. They needed a leprechaun to give them some lucky charms but now they insulted the small guy.

Did you hear that? BP cares about you so much that if you are in the Gulf of Mexico and for the next century your fishing or tourism business is doomed.. BP has put together $20 billion dollar fund for your damage It is truly truly truly sorry. Oh and If you weren't affected by BP but are part of US pension funds – including Calpers, the Teacher Retirement System of Texas and Ohio Public Employees Retirement System then BP is truly truly truly sorry for you as well because the 12% dividend yield that you saw a few days ago will be reduced to 0% so they can spread that wealth to the victims. You can enjoy your -50% gain in BP stock now.

But wait I forgot to mention one benefit of this disaster. BP has hired cleanup workers to clean things up and this good news for the people of the Gulf. Hey you just got promoted from fisherman to fish rescuer, Congrats!! Just sign here on the dotted line ........... and just make sure to not get sea sick from the delicious fumes because your complaints and health information will never be part of BP's record.

BP attempted to deny and conceal links of its oil spill to illnesses, after initial reports of oil cleanup workers who were getting sick due to extended exposure to oil and dispersants. Fishermen have complained of “severe headaches, dizziness, nausea and difficulty breathing” after working to clean up the spill, and one said BP did not provide protective equipment. But BP CEO Tony Hayward brushed off illness concerns, suggesting “food poisoning” might have been the culprit.

Although Louisiana state records indicate that at least 74 oil spill workers have complained of becoming sick after exposure to pollutants, BP’s own official recordkeeping notes just two such incidents.

You all should feel sorry for BP Because it will take anywhere from 100 days to 365 days for BP to make back the $20 billion in profit while the victims sit at home and receive checks.
Ok fine that's less than a year's worth of profits... But this is just a fund for economic damage, and won't protect it against all sorts of other legal costs. According to NYT legal costs and criminal fees could hit at least $63 billion. WHOOPS! Hey NYSE:BP stock... you will be missed when you hit $19 but on the bright side! You'll be a teenager again full of energy (pun intended) !

And now for a mini change of subject. Senate has now accepted an expanded Fed audit. The House proposal allows repeated future audits of discount window and open market transactions, whereas the Senate proposal had only allowed a one-time audit. Of course this is just a grain of salt and even when it's passed it might be years before we see any audits.

Current Stock Signals 5-15-2010

Sat, 15 May 2010 20:40:41 +0000

Due to my time constraints in the next two weeks I will be posting more sporadically. Here are the current signals for symbols I follow.

You can also find this at the top on Current Picks Page.. I hadn't updated it in two weeks but as you can see the major signals are from late April so nothing was missed.

My System caught onto the downdraft about a week before the "fat finger" occured and from what I just observed going through these charts is that the "fat finger" was very skinny and precise... nuff said because I need to keep this one a secret. Enjoy

Market Indices and other important Quotes
(Note: I understand you can’t purchase an index so bear with me these are just signals)

Symbol	Buy Date	Sell Date
$SPX		4-27-2010
$INDU		4-30-2010
$COMPX		4-30-2010
QQQQ		4-30-2010
IWM	5-12-2010
SPY		4-27-2010

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Rest of the Symbols (More will be added per request)

Symbol	Buy Date	Sell Date
IYR		5-14-2010
AAPL		5-4-2010
DRYS		4-19-2010
SDS	4-30-2010
SRS	5-14-2010
SSO		5-14-2010
SKF	4-30-2010
JNK		5-14-2010
HYG		5-14-2010
REW	4-27-2010
QID	4-30-2010
QLD		4-30-2010
XLF		4-26-2010
DIG		4-28-2010
DUG	5-14-2010
SMN	4-30-2010
VXX	4-27-2010
BBT	5-10-2010
BID	5-11-2010

Make Some Money... Ok A Lot of Money!
-K

Weekly Picks- Buy:IYR,XLF Sell:DRYS,SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX

Mon, 26 Apr 2010 00:37:35 +0000

This week was mostly a reversal of calls made last week, the only new call is a Sell on DRYS.
When the week moves in a range (market Zig Zagged 30 points up and down) they are called False Signals because my system is a trending one.
Nobody has called me out on my calls but this is the first back to back week that signals have reversed in my blogging days so I thought I'd clear the air .

I will be introducing a new Feature this week. A chart to accompany each call. The charts are 3 months and they show all signals that might have occurred during that time-frame.
Red Dots means SELL and Green dots signal BUY. Simple enough? Great Let's get started.

Here's a look at SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Chart
(Click to Enlarge, Same goes for the rest of the charts)

Upgrades

IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $52.23

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
Upgraded to BUY on Apr 21 at $16.74

Downgrades

DRYS DryShips Inc.
downgraded to SELL on Apr 19 at $6.20

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 21 at $26.98

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $17.32

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 23 at $32.37

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
downgraded to SELL on Apr 20 at $18.27

Disclaimer:
I am only giving the latest signal for the stock mentioned. Use at your own risk and make sure to take the date into consideration. If you have been trading for a while you should have realized that relying solely on the strategies of others (think Analyst Opinions) will lead to failure so please only take the signals I provide just as another indicator in making your informed BUY or SELL decision. Now go Make some MONEY!

-K

State Street Corp. Options Fun

Wed, 21 Apr 2010 04:34:32 +0000

I don't have the time tonight for a nightly recap so I will highlight one of my trades.

I shorted State Street Corporation on April 13 because of gut feeling (always follow gut) and sold April 20 via writing of May 49 strike calls.

Here is the chart with the entry and exit points. Here is the link to the option if you were wondering finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SPJ100522C00049000

I don't have time for the nightly recaps but I will leave you with an updated chart that you will like. (Click To Enlarge)

1 Week play = 80% Profit. I took profits because you can never be too greedy especially when there's only $25 left on the plate.

Have a good night and make some money!

-K

Weekly Picks- Buy:SRS,SKF,SMN,VXX Sell:IYR,XLF

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 02:42:26 +0000

The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.

Upgrades

SRS ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $29.18 (SELL Apr 05 at $28.60)

SKF ProShares UltraShort Financials (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $18.11 (SELL Feb 16 at $24.17)

SMN ProShares UltraShort Basic Materls (ETF)
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $34.01 (SELL Mar 29 at $34.95)

VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F
upgraded to BUY on Apr 16 at $19.97 (SELL Feb 11 at $31.40)

Downgrades

IYR iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $50.24 (BUY Apr 05 at $51.05)

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF)
downgraded to SELL on Apr 16 at $16.36 (BUY Feb 16 at $14.34)

Notes:
URE and UYG are off my list after the splits because of charting issues.

Have a good weekend.

-K

Are Greek stocks ready for a comeback?

Mon, 12 Apr 2010 01:58:45 +0000

With all the recent bailout talks for Greece it might seem like a good time to short Greek assets right? No!
The risk rewards at this point have been cut in half. I will display a chart below of the Dow Jones Greece Stock Index $GRDOW.
Here is a 3 year chart with no comments. (Click to Enlarge)

Here is the 1.5Year chart showing a different story.
You see... Greece did hit bottom at the same time as the entire market did as well back in March of 2009 BUT Greece topped out in October of 2009 and started its next leg down.

From March-October 2009 the index rose from 124.17 to 267.40!
Thats 143.23 point gain or 115% Gain in 8 months... and here we are complaining that our market has gone up 75% and is overdue for a correction.
Now as we can see from the chart below Greece then took a turn from 267.40 to 150.84 in February of 2010 (and it might be making a lower low coming up if the bailout saga isn't fully discounted yet) the 116.56 point drop from the October 2009 peak to the temporary February 2010 bottom is a 43.5% correction!

Back to my original question... now do you see why I said no to shorting the Greeks? 44% Correction has already occurred and even if there is another 150 points to the downside (another 50% or so) the risk reward is no longer there. I might be looking to buy up some Greek Gyros or Banks soon to play. One such play is National Bank of Greece (NBG)
Here is the chart for NBG to compare to the entire index. Also Notice the Recent Volume (Click to Enlarge)

Thats all for tonight folks. Have a good night and a good trading day tomorrow.

-K

Current Picks Updated 4-11-2010

Sun, 11 Apr 2010 04:41:48 +0000

The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.

IYR upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $51.05 (SELL Mar 26 at $50.10)
URE upgraded to BUY on Apr 05 at $8.55 (SELL Mar 31 at $8.14)
JNK upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $39.61 (SELL Apr 1 at $39.51)
HYG upgraded to BUY on Apr 08 at $88.31 (SELL Mar 31 at $87.50)

SRS downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $5.72 (BUY Mar 31st at $6.04)
REW downgraded to SELL on Apr 05 at $20.54 (BUY Apr 1st at $21.06)

If you've been following the current picks you might notice above that these are reversed calls from last week. you have to understand that there are fake-outs but I only update the page once a week. On the works is a subscription plan where i would update it for members every 1-2 days if signals changed. For now let's enjoy some recent highlights.

Recent Highlights:

AAPL from 224.75 on March 22nd to 241.79 of close Friday.
DRYS from 5.88 on March 29th to 6.56 of close Friday.
DIG from 34.27 on March 30th to 37.07 of close Friday.

Have a good weekend.

-K

Current Picks Updated 4-4-2010

Mon, 05 Apr 2010 04:17:51 +0000

The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.

IWM upgraded to BUY on Apr 01 at $68.43 (SELL Mar 19 at $67.41)
DRYS upgraded to BUY on Mar 29th at $5.88 (SELL Mar 25 at $5.66)
SRS upgraded to BUY on Mar 31st at $6.04 (SELL Feb 16 at $7.83)
REW upgraded to BUY on Apr 1st at $21.06 (SELL Feb 26 at $23.86)
DIG upgraded to BUY on Mar 30th at $34.27 (SELL Mar 19 at $33.97)

URE downgraded to SELL on Mar 31st at $8.14 (BUY Feb 16 at $6.38)
JNK downgraded to SELL on Apr 1st at $39.51 (BUY Feb 17 at $37.97)
HYG downgraded to SELL on Mar 31st at $87.50 (BUY Feb 17 at $85.38)
DUG downgraded to SELL on Mar 30th at $12.36 (BUY Mar 19 at $12.40)
SMN downgraded to SELL on Mar 29th at $6.99 (BUY Mar 19 at $7.37)

Have a good weekend.

-K

Current Picks Updated 3-28-2010

Sun, 28 Mar 2010 04:52:42 +0000

The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.

IYR downgraded to SELL on Mar 26th at $50.10 (BUY Feb 16 at $44.40)
AAPL upgraded to BUY on Mar 22nd at $224.75 (SELL Mar 19 at $222.30)

Not much action this week but many equities are giving a sign of rolling over (dont be surprised if you see over a dozen stock upgrades and downgrades one weekend)
As for AAPL i think the sudden turnaround of signal seems to have been caused by unexpected demand for the iPad.

Have a good weekend.

-K

Current Picks Updated 3-20-2010

Sat, 20 Mar 2010 19:48:26 +0000

The Current Picks page has been updated. Have a look by clicking Current Picks here or up on the top of the page.
Below I will only mention the new signals that have occurred this week.

IWM downgraded to SELL on Mar 19th at $67.41 (BUY Feb 11 at $60.58)
AAPL downgraded to SELL on Mar 19th at $222.30 (BUY Feb 25 at $202.00)
DIG downgraded to SELL on Mar 19th at $33.98 (BUY Mar 1 at $33.09)
DUG upgraded to BUY on Mar 19th at $12.40 (SELL Mar 1 at $12.80)
SMN upgraded to BUY on Mar 19th at $7.37 (SELL Feb 9 at $9.26)

And Mitch, I tried to add MGI to the current picks list per your request on the comment box, but right now it's been stuck in a range and gives more than one signal a week (one too many considering I only do weekly updates to the page) I will keep an eye on it once it breaks the range.

Have a good weekend.

-K