Market Analysis

SPY’der Pig Spy’der Pig!

Posted by Investing Freak on September 21, 2010
Market Analysis / 7 Comments

Well it surely has been a lifetime (one month) since I last posted but don’t blame me much because life has become much busier and time consuming. Don’t worry though I won’t leave fellow freaks without some delicious charts before I return to the freakishly busy life of mine .

First off for some humor Here’s my Inspiration to the awesome title. ūüôā

Ok so without even mentioning any recent news because I really don’t care if the Economy officially came out of recession last summer or if Larry Summers will finally leave his post at the end of the year because I am a technical trader and I like to trade what I see rather than what I hear. If I traded what I heard then I would be a BOOOYAH Cramerica Fan which would have made me millionaire by now if I had invested billions.

Lets start off with an hourly chart for the past 20 days of the SPY so we can see what happened while the blog was inactive.
I will not reveal the indicators of lines used in the chart but with some trial and error you might be able to figure it out :). As you can see starting September 1st the market broke above the blue line while at the same time volume picked up and a special indicator went from red to green.  SPY at the time was around 107 and today it reached a high of nearly 115.

Thats great and all as we see what happened in the past but what about the “Freak”ing future? ¬†I am not calling a market top yet but I must make my intentions known that if either 115 or 113 are broken on the hourly while the volume is there then that will determine the future. ¬†If I were to call it? I would say the volume increased the last two hours of today’s trading thanks to Ben Balloonhead and the special indicator below is heading downhill (but still green). ¬†My ideal trade would be when SPY cuts below 113 and the indicator turns red. ¬†Remember that even if what I am preaching does not happen at least it is a more informed decision than pressing a “Buy Buy Buy, Sell Sell Sell” button. (Click Image below to Enlarge)

Next up we will visit something I like to call the Bollinger Bands and again I will not reveal the inputs but I hope you are understanding (you can always figure it out with some hard work), as you can see I have also shown the signals my system has given to me. I am awaiting for that Sell signal which might send SPY to 110’s at the very least if it displays me that lovely red “S”. ¬†of course there have been times where the market just consolidates along the blue lines and then moves up in which case I wouldn’t enter until I see my system print the signals while I also evaluate the chart already posted above.

Are you falling asleep yet? If so you¬†aren’t¬†a real Investing Freak because only the elite know that without doing your homework you will go into the market like a headless chicken and come out a loser. Now Time to introduce the updated Investing Freak special chart which I last displayed back in June. If you click on the link and go to that post you will see a ¬†“price line” drawn near 1152 (it’s really just a bit over 1150 if you get microscopical), I mention that because today the market reached up to 1048.59 and retreated a full 10 points! ¬†10 points is a sweet intra-day move which you can make a killing on if you play it right. Anyways here is the updated chart since I can see you falling asleep. (Click below to Enlarge)

Recap: I’ve been busy, market has been behaving¬†according¬†to plan and is not showing more negative signs than positive but no¬†definite¬†reversal has been noticed so just use the charts above for reference. If they are helpful, you are welcome to post comments so we can liven up the blog again.

Until next post…. Enjoy Making money!!

-K

BP Cares about the small people

Posted by Investing Freak on June 17, 2010
Market Analysis / 18 Comments

As you might have figured out by now, BP plc (ADR) Chairman and the CEO met with President Obama ONLY two months after the oil spill disaster.
Of course as I mentioned in the previous post BP now stands for Bad Publicity so nothing was unexpected on my end when the Chairman said: “I hear comments sometimes that large oil companies are greedy companies or don‚Äôt care, but that is not the case with BP.¬†We care about the small people.” ¬† Bad publicity this time will cause BP to buy google ads for keywords such as petite, small, midgets, oompa loompa. ¬†They needed a leprechaun to give them some lucky charms but now they insulted the small guy.

Did you hear that? BP cares about you so much that if you are in the Gulf of Mexico and for the next century your fishing or tourism business is doomed.. BP has put together $20 billion dollar fund for your damage It is truly truly truly sorry. Oh and If you weren’t affected by BP but are part of US pension funds ‚Äď including Calpers, the Teacher Retirement System of Texas and Ohio Public Employees Retirement System then BP is truly truly truly sorry for you as well because the 12% dividend yield that you saw a few days ago will be reduced to 0% so they can spread that wealth to the victims. ¬†You can enjoy your -50% gain in BP stock now.

But wait I forgot to mention one benefit of this disaster. BP has hired cleanup workers to clean things up and this good news for the people of the Gulf. ¬†Hey you just got promoted from fisherman to fish rescuer, Congrats!! ¬†Just sign here on the dotted line ……….. ¬† and just make sure to not get sea sick from the delicious fumes because your complaints and health information will never be part of BP’s record.

BP attempted to deny and conceal links of its oil spill to illnesses, after initial reports of oil cleanup workers who were getting sick due to extended exposure to oil and dispersants. Fishermen have complained of ‚Äúsevere headaches, dizziness, nausea and difficulty breathing‚ÄĚ after working to clean up the spill, and one said BP did not provide protective equipment. But BP CEO Tony Hayward brushed off illness concerns, suggesting ‚Äúfood poisoning‚ÄĚ might have been the culprit.

Although Louisiana state records indicate that at least 74 oil spill workers have complained of becoming sick after exposure to pollutants, BP’s own official recordkeeping notes just two such incidents.

You all should feel sorry for BP Because it will take anywhere from 100 days to 365 days for BP to make back the $20 billion in profit while the victims sit at home and receive checks.
Ok fine that’s less than a year’s worth of profits… But this is just a fund for economic damage, and won’t protect it against all sorts of other legal costs. According to NYT legal costs and criminal fees could hit at least $63 billion. ¬† WHOOPS! ¬† ¬†Hey NYSE:BP stock… you will be missed when you hit $19 but on the bright side! You’ll be a teenager again full of energy (pun intended) !

And now for a mini change of subject. ¬†Senate has now accepted an¬†expanded Fed audit. The House proposal allows repeated future audits of discount window and open market transactions, whereas the Senate proposal had only allowed a one-time audit. Of course this is just a grain of salt and even when it’s passed it might be years before we see any audits.

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1077 Proves to be $SPX resistance again.

Posted by Investing Freak on June 09, 2010
Market Analysis / 27 Comments

Going into the open today 1077 was on the radar as a heavy resistance. It will now try to become a death cross of two averages i use that can be seen as the blue and red lines in the Special Investing Freak $SPX chart.

As for what happened today I decided it is best to sum it up using this image and text. (Click To Enlarge)

I bought Puts early on then called top of 1077 in a comment at around 10:50 with the top on the market coming at around 11:30 where I decided it was time to make true to my preaching and sell my calls. Sold puts at end of day and am flat for the next day opening so i can sleep well ūüėČ

Keep checking the comments for latest news and talk and feel free to participate (dont be shy)

-K

Let’s just say

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Debt Reducing Tuesday

Posted by Investing Freak on June 08, 2010
Market Analysis / 13 Comments

Bennie Balloon Bernankie has something to say about the koolaid.
‚ÄúMy best guess is that we‚Äôll have a continued recovery, but it won‚Äôt feel terrific.¬†Even though technically we‚Äôll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress,‚ÄĚ he said. Via CalculatedRisk

But there is GREAT NEWS…You can use your credit card to Help Reduce National Debt. Via The Mess That Greenspan Made
Its ok that everyone is financially strained you are still welcomed to help especially if you have a credit card with 13 trillion dollar limit. ūüėČ

There are two ways for you to make a contribution to reduce the debt:

  • You can make a contribution online either by credit card, checking or savings account atPay.gov
  • You can write a check payable to the Bureau of the Public Debt, and in the memo section, notate that it’s a Gift to reduce the Debt Held by the Public.

And as mentioned yesterday the G20 Meeting relied more on taking the koolaid away and tightening the belts of the countries.
Here’s what Germany decided to do:
Germany will cut child payments, pare government payrolls and boost taxes on energy firms with nuclear power plants in an effort to save 81.6 billion euros ($97.6 billion) between 2011 and 2014 in a package approved by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Cabinet on Monday. -Marketwatch
and how it would look if the United States did something very similar. (Click the option to View as One Page for easy reading)
Of course all these news were already priced in today and greenshoots galore tomorrow.
Make money!!

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Its another Manic Monday

Posted by Investing Freak on June 06, 2010
Market Analysis / 9 Comments

Without going into many links I will summarize what I read. BP can’t stop leak still, Hungary is the next Greece and this time it might not be bailed out since the G20 meeting was all talk about Fiscal Policy (bailouts) are not sustainable and austerity measures are the way to go. to top it all Iran is not willing to take the next Gaza aid ship to its destination by providing naval escort (Read: Israel can’t attack without starting a war)

Here is an Update of the InvestingFreak Special SPX chart the Red Line (250MA is broken for now so lets see if it holds broken and turns into resistance. to the downside i see 1040 and to the upside a retest of 1104 at least is possible although not all this action might come monday. (Click Image to Enlarge)

So there you have it. Fun week ahead but lets all make money whichever way it goes.
Also visitors are always welcomed and encourage to comment and participate in daily market discussions, your posts wont be deleted or censored unless they contain inappropriate content and links.

S&P futures are down 9 points since the open. ¬†On top of the page in the “Economic Calendar” tab you have easy access to the daily calendar happenings and live commodity futures.

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Germany Tries to save the day AGAIN -2008 Part 2 Begins-

Posted by Investing Freak on May 18, 2010
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

So today Germany’s Merkel decided to pull a good trick over the nekkid shorts.

There is much surprise that the German government has declared a ban on naked short selling, including CDS, as of midnight tonight, with no prior notice or the niceties demanded by the banks when government chooses to act. This action seems to have perturbed some and confused many.

Germany is claiming that this move will stop the Speculators

The ban will also apply to naked short selling in shares of 10 banks and insurers that will last until March 31, 2011, German financial regulator BaFin said today in an e-mailed statement. The step was needed because of ‚Äúexceptional volatility‚ÄĚ in euro-area bonds, the regulator said.

HMMM Where oh Where Have I heard this story before… ¬†Oh Yeahh.. September 20, 2008 German regulator bans short-selling in financial stocks

Germany on Saturday halted short-selling in financial shares, when investors borrow company stock to sell it, following the example of Britain and the United States. The ban affects 11 shares including those of AAreal Bank, Allianz, AMB Generali, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Boerse, Deutsche Postbank, Hannover Re, Hypo Real Estate, MLP and Munich Re.    BaFin, said short sales were banned with immediate effect until the end of the year, underscoring that they could lead to huge losses in the current global financial turmoil.

Roll Back to May 18, 2010….

Allianz SE, Deutsche Bank AG, Commerzbank AG, Deutsche Boerse AG, Deutsche Postbank AG, Muenchener Rueckversicherungs AG, Hannover Rueckversicherungs AG, Generali Deutschland Holding AG, MLP AG and Aareal Bank AG are covered by the short-selling ban. ¬†¬†‚ÄúMassive‚ÄĚ short-selling was leading to excessive price movements which ‚Äúcould endanger the stability of the entire financial system,‚ÄĚ BaFin said in the statement.

I wonder what happened last time they tried protecting the banks? Well I will examine it below but what’s that I hear you say? This Time is Different? ¬†It sure is!!
During the last Crisis we had Lehman go bankrupt and Bear Stearns collapse. ¬†Two years later we don’t have any financial institutions going down. We Have Countries that are crumbling and their “shareholders” (taxpayers and citizens) revolting. ¬† ¬†Greece is Bear Stearns because of the trillion dollar bailout and Portugal might as well become Lehman because unless Europe is willing to print a trillion for every country they bail (which I know they can if they want) and euro dropping to parity and beyond with the dollar…. someone will have to hold the bankruptcy stick.

Anyways Lets look at how the last short selling ban affected the financial institutions they tried to protect.

I’m using Dow Jones Germany Index for a Benchmark as to compare returns.

Company Sept to Dec 2008 May 2010 ‚Äď March 2011
Dow Jones Germany Index (USD) DEDOWD -23% TO
Allianz SE  AVL -30% BE
Aareal Bank AG ARL -64% FILLED
Commerzbank AG CBK -61% OUT
Deutsche Bank AG  DBK -50% ON
Deutsche Boerse AG DB1 -15% APRIL
Deutsche Postbank AG DPB -65% 2011
Hannover Rueckversicherung AG HNR1 -18% WHEN
MLP AG MLP -26% BAN
Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Ges. AG MUV2 +7% ENDS

Oh myyyyyy Germany Saved the day as speculators were on the sidelines watching and missing out on 18 to 65% gains (its what you do when you short and if you’re not familiar just Google “selling stocks short”)

The Previous ban was 3 months and the protected stocks crashed an average of 46%. The New Ban will be around 11 months and will crash how much? It will crash aplenty so I will not make an exact percentage call on this one. But I will be doing one thing this time around though. ¬†I’m putting German Financials on a Bank Watch List that I will check back on April 1st 2011.

Make plenty of money these next few weeks even if my blogging is sporiadic at best. (Offline life always comes first)

-K

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Market Correction: Special Edition Results [Animated Charts]

Posted by Investing Freak on May 07, 2010
Market Analysis / 5 Comments

If you’ve been following my blog recently you might have noticed my April 28, 2010 “Special Edition: Here comes the red ink, correction begins.
On April 27th The SPX stood at 1183 and it swung as low as 1065 during the past 7 trading days to ultimately close at 1110.

As I wrote on the 28th

I finally had time to check on the market a big grin came to my face. A lot went on today and news blamed Greece and Portugal downgrades for the sharp drop. Nobody ever talks about the technical analysis because it is beyond the mind of Joe the Plumber.

The first chart was the EUR/USD which broke an ascending triangle on the daily back in December. ¬†Below is an animation of Apr 27 and May 7 to show the move. If you have trouble viewing the animated image please leave me a comment because it’s the first time I’m using animated content. (CLICK TO VIEW ANIMATION)

Next we’ll move onto the $TED Spread which jumped nearly 100 percent since the 28th. (Click to View Animation)

Lastly I will leave you off with the Investing Freak Special SPX chart animation. Boy was this a move, the red line is the 250 day moving average in case you are wondering. (Click to View Animation)

Where do I see us heading from here? We still¬†haven’t¬†broken some key supports such as the 1088 trendline and the 1060 250Day moving average. So if we drop another 50 point we will still be good to go for a bounce. If more crazy days are upon us? ¬†I will check with BID ( Sotheby’s ) to see if it’s gone below 22 to initiate heavy short positions.

Thats just me and as always these are my opinions and even though they work for me I cant guarantee them working for you.

Have a good weekend and be on the lookout for the latest Current Picks signal changes coming up this weekend.

-K

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Market Survives Heart Attack

Posted by Investing Freak on May 06, 2010
Market Analysis / 1 Comment

There is no need for me to summarize today’s DOW -1000 move so I will move ahead to the point of the day.

Quick Update to the post on April 28 Special Edition: Here comes the red ink, correction begins.
I want to talk about my leading market indicator ( Sotheby’s¬†¬†BID)
As Quoted from April 28’s article.

Now lets take a look domestically at ¬†BID – Sotherby’s ¬† which as I mentioned on¬†March 14th’s post is Part of my indicators arsenal. ¬†A move below 32 (20% drop from 39) would tell me to wipe the dust off my ammunition and a move under 22 (40+% drop) would just signal that Chaos is back and since this is a Leading indicator to me it would highly influence my positions.

What BID did today is move below 32 for most of the day so my ammunition is now dust free and waiting for the under 22 move if it comes.

Go to the link above to check the older chart (or click here) but here is the one updated today that shows you how BID bounced right on the trend-lines I had drawn a while back.  Since it bounced at 28 that to me signals that there is still a chance for survival from this heart attack.

Here’s the chart and I will stop here for the day. Tomorrow there should be a textbook green day with more red on the way for next week. (Click to Enlarge)

-K

Special Edition: Here comes the red ink, correction begins.

Posted by Investing Freak on April 28, 2010
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

It was a busy day today and when I finally had time to check on the market a big grin came to my face. A lot went on today and news blamed Greece and Portugal downgrades for the sharp drop. Nobody ever talks about the technical analysis because it is beyond the mind of Joe the Plumber.

Let’s start off with the Eur/Usd which I have closely followed since December when it broke a long term trendline. ¬†I hadn’t looked back at it since and I was shocked. ¬†Here is the first in a series of Special charts.

Next on the list is $TED which stands for the Treasury РEuroDollar Spread.  You can read more about what Ted is on this November post if you are not familiar with it.
WHile the spread of  0.2 is still fairly low and below the average of 0.5 the fact that it is increasing and the moving averages are making their first crossup since before the October 2008 crisis strikes me as interesting especially given the current economic situation.

While on the subject of Europe lets check out the Greek Index $GRDOW which I wrote about on April 11 and that turned out to be the opposite of what I expected. From a low of 124.17 on March of 2009 the Greek index went through the roof at 267.40 and as of close today it stands at 138.11.  Go Greece!!!

Now lets take a look domestically at ¬†BID – Sotherby’s ¬† which as I mentioned on March 14th’s post is Part of my indicators arsenal. ¬†BID fell from 37.75 to 34.93 today which broke a short term trendline but also another big move would put it below the 32 mark that is the next strong support. Since the March 2009 lows of 5.85 BID is up 666% to as high as 39! That’s nearly 47% a month. ¬†A move below 32 (20% drop from 39) would tell me to wipe the dust off my ammunition and a move under 22 (40+% drop) would just signal that Chaos is back and since this is a Leading indicator to me it would highly influence my positions.

Lastly I will leave you off with the Investing Freak Special SPX chart that I last posted on April 14th. ¬†We hit a top, retreated a bit below the blue moving average then made a higher high at 1219 but this time it was different as the retreat didn’t land on solid ground and we fell through.

Class Dismissed.
-K

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The Investingfreak Special SPX chart re-visited

Posted by Investing Freak on April 14, 2010
Market Analysis / 3 Comments

Back on March 28th I posted an InvestingFreak original chart of the S&P500. ¬†Blue line is 10SMA and It has held for a few months now but as the market heads higher it faces a few resistance points, is 1216 the absolute top (I have preached that number offline for a while now) and a good correction of 100 points upon us? ¬†Remember that at this point all positive earnings might be faced with a “sell the news” attitude.

I don’t have time for the nightly recaps but I will leave you with an updated chart that you will like. (Click To Enlarge)

Have a good night and make some money!

-K

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