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22Jun/10

Tropical Storm Alex to BP’s Rescue

I Want my life back! I am not the only one as plenty of fishes, birds, and people also want their life back that  BP plc (ADR) has taken away. Not to Worry because BP feels sorry, so sorry that it is donating oil spill revenue to charity (the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation). BP said it would provide $5 million to the group immediately, Based on a current futures price of $77.83 a barrel, the collected oil is worth about $1.2 million. BP hopes to cap the well by August.

With the CEO now out of the picture time to get back to work and stop this drilling insanity. Hmm maybe not thanks to a federal judge who has overturned the Obama administration’s 6-month moratorium on new deepwater offshore drilling projects. What's the reason for overturning the decision?
The Interior Department said it needed time to study the risks of deepwater drilling but U.S. District Judge Martin Feldman said in his ruling the Interior Department assumed that because one rig failed, all companies and rigs doing deepwater drilling pose an imminent danger.

Come on there has to be more to this story and thankfully there is. Like many judges presiding in the Gulf region, Feldman owns lots of energy stocks, including Transocean, Halliburton, and two of BP’s largest U.S. private shareholders — BlackRock (7.1%) and JP Morgan Chase (28.3%). Here’s a list of Feldman’s income in 2008.  How can he stop drilling when his heart is fully soaked in oil? He can't because Industry ties among federal judges are so widespread that they are beginning to endanger the courts’ ability to conduct routine business.

More great news!  We don't need to head to Italy to see the amazing Leaning Tower of Pisa because BP pipe is tilting more.
The Deepwater Horizon riser package that sits on the seabed a mile below the ocean surface weighs over 450 tons, including the 48-foot-tall failed blowout preventer. National Incident Commander Thad Allen announced that the riser package is tilting “10 or 12 degrees off perpendicular (On June 10 it was only tilting by about 2 or 3 degrees). Engineers and geologists fear the stack atop the well could tip over if the well integrity further degrades, leading to the “unlikely, but not implausible” scenario of “oil gushing through the sea floor.”

Hey you say, its unlikely and worst case scenario and BP will get things rolling before something worse happens. What else coulg go wrong? everything is already factored for the worse.
Oh wait! More Great news just arrived! Tropical Storm Alex comes to the rescue (or not) of BP.  The ECMWF model is the most aggressive in developing this system, taking it into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane next week. The NOGAPS model keeps the storm weak and farther south, predicting that 93L will bring heavy rains to northern Honduras as a tropical disturbance or tropical depression on Friday and Saturday. But either way this will be fun to watch.

Here is the graph of Invest93 (Tropical Storm Alex)


Check out some previous BP Posts
:
BP Cares about the small people June 17
BP now stands for Bad Publicity June 14

Thats all Folks,
-K

16Jul/08

Dug is up 20% in over a week

Many of you might have read my previous article where I question whether the oil bubble was ready to burst.

Previously: Is The Oil Bubble Ready To Burst?

Since July 7, 2008 until July 16, 2008, (DUG) has gained well over 20%. This is certainly not a burst of bubble but it is interesting to see whether it'll sustain for a longer term.

If you invested on (DUG) or have any comments please feel free to comment.

7Jul/08

Is The Oil Bubble Ready To Burst?

Bubbles Always Have a Limit where they can no longer grow and sustain the hype.

I have seen oil run up like many of you have but without owning a car it hasn't hurt my wallet yet.

I've been thinking of investing in an oil shorting stock (Exchange traded Fund in this case.)
Symbol: (DUG)   which bets that oil will go down. The ETF that bets for oil is (DIG) and the top 10 holdings are listed below.  DUG basically almost shorts all those companies and more.

Top 10 Holdings For Dig
Security Description Weight
EXXON MOBIL CORP COM STK 25.21%
CHEVRON CORP COM STK 10.87%
CONOCOPHILLIPS COM STK 6.96%
SCHLUMBERGER COM USD0.01 6.45%
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 3.81%
DEVON ENERGY CORP(NEW) 2.62%
TRANSOCEAN INC. (NEW) COM 2.40%
HALLIBURTON CO COM STK 2.36%
APACHE CORP COM STK 2.35%
MARATHON OIL CORP COM STK 1.9

Source: ProShares

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Here is my usual chart showing the trend reversal the past few days.

It broke through the 50 day moving average and might make a modest run.


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An interesting chart showing that the oil price has touched base with the total oil consumption just like the 1980's bubble.
Source: SmartEconomy
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Disclaimer: I have not invested into DUG yet but it is getting very interesting.