Monthly Archives: May 2013

ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch) – Technical & Quantitative Valuation Analysis

Posted by Investing Freak on May 26, 2013
General / Comments Off on ANF (Abercrombie & Fitch) – Technical & Quantitative Valuation Analysis

UPDATE: Scroll to the end to see the May 2013 Chart after reading the entire story (if you want)

Abercrombie & Fitch’s Q3 earnings are out, and they’re up 40%, which has share prices up a whopping 34% today. – The Motley Fool

What’s there to do when you feel like you missed the boat? Backtrack and check out what you can learn from it so you can catch the next hot one of course.  Besides the Quarterly earnings its good to look at the annual data as well provided to us by Yahoo Finance.

 Technical View:
Each trader that uses technical charting has their own timeframe and indicators but after years of research and trials the 80/20 rule applies here too.  80% of the move can be guessed by 20% of the indicators.   The ones we use here at InvestingFreak are 50, 70, and 110 Exponential moving averages in the Weekly OHLC candlesticks.  We then apply trendlines to look for patterns as well as support and resistance.

Support: near the $30 level
Resistance: Downward trendline at $35
Resistance: EMA’s of (50) at $40.37, (70) at $42.56, (110) at $44.49
The support held and some resistance broke but ANF has a tough battle to fight the $42.50-$44.50 range technically speaking.

Quantitative View:
The Data for this part of the summary was pulled from yahoo finance and the last price was set at $31.18 to represent the day before the spike.  In this quant view the simple KISS approach was also implemented (Keep It Simple Stupid) and mainly the Balance Sheet and Income statements along with a few basic data points were used to come up with the conclusion.

Some of the basic results are highlighted below along with others that won’t be mentioned.  Overall quant score was a 75% which makes this stock a good investment based on the numbers provided.

 

Conclusion:
The results are mixed but unless $ANF can clear the $42.50-$44.50 range, the combined hybrid score leaves just too much downside to be had.

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May 2013 Update
Earnings got released again and they were worse than analysts expected but look at what has happened to ANF after it cleared the $44.50 resistance on the weekly (which is now support).

The $55 line is a bit of resistance but on the down side all moving averages will now act as support should ANF drop.

Thanks for reading.

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