World Cup Friday

Posted by Investing Freak on June 11, 2010
General

If you notice lower volume during the next 30 days you can bet that the World Cup is affecting traders (or maybe just me) with matches at 7AM 9:30AM and 2PM every day. I guess this would mean that soccer fans would come back for the last 30 minutes of trading during the “Adult Swim” hour.

The Data is out and during Q1 household debt contracted 2.2% annually while State and local government debt expanded at 4.25% annually. The financial sector “shed” ~$1.3 trillion in debt (on an annualized basis) in Q1. Is anyone surprised the federal government added almost that same amount? –EconomPic

From 8:30 to 10 am some exciting news come out such as the retail sales data and consumer sentiment. You can check up on them at the Economic Calendar.
Retail Sales Fall, But Not As Bad As Reported Demand plunged at building-material stores, reflecting the end of a government appliance rebate, and sales fell at auto dealers, in contrast to industry figures which showed a gain.  Subtracting those outliers we still have a decline, which shows weakness. Just not as weak as early reports would indicate.

The BP Oil Disaster has become large enough at the moment to cover Albania which now makes Albania the New Frontier for Oil Investors.

Keep in touch using the comment box and even make your pick for the World Cup Champion to be crowned July 11th.
I hope you like the new speed of the website thanks to our seamless move to a new host.

Make some money and think before you hold into the weekend.

-K

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36 Comments to World Cup Friday

  • 8:30 has come and gone and Retail sales came in at -1.20% while they were expected to increase by 0.1% and previously were +0.6% I have updated the post above with some info on retail sales

    so how did the market react? 1085 to 1075 and still water falling as we speak

    next up 9:55am consumer sentiment and inflationary expectations,,

    Oh Market down Gold up 11 bucks.

  • and as expected retail sales were headfake. now lets see what investor sentiment is. with market fully recovering the 8:20 waterfall we can expect another retreat at 10 or will we blast off past 1083 resistance in the futures

  • Sentiment at 75.50 vs expected 74.80 so that’s good and matches up with the retail sales data from earlier which werent as bad as it seemed..

    The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity.

    Inflation expectations were at 2.70% vs 3.20% last time. this is the lowest since march 26 2010
    This monthly survey measures the percentage by which consumers expect the price of services and goods to change over the next 12 months.

    I’ll be watching from the sidelines for now for the morning fades

  • GEORGE

    daily spx made perfect back test of downtrend line from may 13 to june 3 this am and bounced hard…can you make a chart that shows this ??? thanks

  • GEORGE

    also 9dmsa is close by this line and rejected rally wednesday….now will it provide support???

  • p,

    9MA does a good job of support. Often, especially intraday, price will walk right up the 9MA. It is good for entries and exits in a trading method.

  • so what’s next? i see futures unable to break and close above 1083 in the 15 min chart.

    Phil still going for 1090+ or a downswing is in the books?

  • george,
    not sure if you would like it or not but if you use thinkorswim you can type /es for futures S&P

    I tend to like it better because there is more data (sometimes can be a bad thing)
    but right now 1077 seems to be strong support so a break below it would have my attention

  • K,

    I’ve been playing with TOS. I found the prophet charts it has built-in are useful. TOS charts does have a method to show several time frames on one screen.

  • its now flirting at support 1077. dont like sideways moves so I still cant play this chart.

    as for SPX hmm. 1075 and 1077 support. 1087 resistance. In the middle of these is recipe for disaster. no more news for the day to bounce the market around,…at least not any expected news anyways

  • GEORGE

    thanks for posting that chart..im going to have to try to figure out how to do it myself…ps ..if you email 2th fixer or string ….let them know about K s blog so we can compare notes…have a great weekend .

    k

    i am going to call it a week…………will check back on monday….hasta!

  • Just like the first world cup game this is a draw for now (South Africa v. Mexico 1-1) haha
    2:30 Uruguay v. France should be the next jolt

  • futures Knocking on the ceiling of nearly 1083. Would need to see it close on top for a good 30+ minutes before even thinking long. Downside 1070 would be good support.

    check link 2 comments above

  • Hi K,

    30 yr treas futures just made a new high for the day –
    waiting for a new low in the euro…

  • word on the street is that a selloff is imminent. I’m just not getting the bid i want on an spy 107 jun put
    or do you suggest i start looking for July’s Joan?

  • Not sure what you mean K, re: the bid – do mean that you’re not getting your bid hit?

  • I got the asking price for a 107 june put at 1.14
    looking to cover before close of market today as to avoid uncertainty and time decay.
    Next week will start trading July options.

    do you have anything open or just casually watching?

  • Still not clear – did you sell a jun 107 put on the offer and you are going to cover by buying it back?
    Doesn’t fit bearish scenario so that’s why I am asking.
    Good not to buy and hold into the weekend unless you are deep in the money and there isn’t much time premium in your price.
    I am just watching now, but waiting for things to start moving – lower I suspect.
    As you know, the weather isn’t great here today, so no urgency to start the weekend early.

  • futures flirting with 1077. looking for 15 min chart to close below
    france uruguay time

  • Lots of time left to do some real damage if they are so inclined. Watch for a move in the VIX – it has been down .60 ish for most of the day but inching higher now – look for it to stay above 30.

  • K,
    Surprisingly these 30 yr futures keep plugging higher – either they or equities will break.
    I am out of my puts for .10 – not because I think we won’t go lower, but because I want to wrap it up for the day.
    Good Luck and have a great weekend!

  • I too see that Joan,
    not out yet but Will watch carefully and cut losses short in about 40 minutes.
    Have a good weekend as well.

  • Daniel,
    BP article is in the “cooking” how big is the deep horizon spill? we’ll find out when it stops which right now seems to be never