Monthly Archives: October 2009

Volatility Index $VIX Is moving higher.

Posted by Investing Freak on October 31, 2009
Market Analysis / 1 Comment

On Friday The VIX went up 23.95%  while the market fell well over 2.5%.

VIX is a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Often referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period.

With the upward movement in the past 2 weeks the VIX has successfully broken a trend line going back to November 2008
See Attached Image (Click To Enlarge)

vix103109-trendline

The VIX also had a bullish candlestick pattern on the 2D frame (2 days per candlestick)
Defeniton of this candlestick pattern is quoted below from Candlesticker:

Bullish Three White Soldiers Pattern is indicative of a strong reversal in the market. It is characterized by three long candlesticks stepping upward like a staircase.

bullish3whites

The following are two charts; one showing the Three White Soldiers pattern on the 2D chart the other showing it on the hourly.
2Day Chart (Click To Enlarge)
vix3whitesoldiers2d

And finally the Hourly chart (Click to Enlarge)

vix3whitesoldiers2h

What does the bullish Vix momentum mean? Well by itself it means nothing to me. But when combining it with the increasing TED Spread, Broken S&P trendline, Numerous bank failings each weekend and many more indicators then it all signals that things are not well and the jobless recovery is not going to last much longer.

As always use caution as these are my observations and I do not make decisions for anyone other than myself.
Happy Halloween! 🙂
-K

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$TED Spread caught in an Ascending Channel Pattern

Posted by Investing Freak on October 27, 2009
Market Analysis / 1 Comment

Let’s start off with once more defining the TED Spread.

The TED Spread which measures the general risk in the economy.  TED increase – is a sign that lenders believe the risk of default on interbank loans is increasing.

I first mentioned TED Spread around September 28 and what occurred was a decline in the markets the following week.

Here we are a month later and the TED spread hasn’t lost steam and in fact it is now in an Ascending Channel (Bullish Pattern)
Price Channels usually show trends, With the moves in the TED from Sept 14 till now we are seeing unrest in interbank loans.

I won’t keep the TED out of my radar but wanted to document the current possible move upwards. (Which would signal a major market correction underway.)

In the attached image I realized the lowest trend line isn’t parallel to the other two but it’s close enough to be valid for my benefit. (Click Image to Enlarge)

ted-102709

Happy Investing from K the Investing Freak.

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$SPX Psychotic Line Resistance

Posted by Investing Freak on October 21, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on $SPX Psychotic Line Resistance

It was a fun day today.
Market opened up and rallied 10 points by 10:45AM.  It was all downhill from there but the big kicker came at 3:10-4PM when the market dropped 17 points.

I will let 2 charts and this link be the hint of what I think we are going to do in the next few days at least.

Chart 1 is a closeup of the past month with the trend lines drawn almost a month in advance. (Click to enlarge)

spx102109

Chart 2 is a zoomed out view from where the rally began. (Click to enlarge)

spx102109-2

That’s all folks. These are the charts promised almost a week earlier.
Have a safe investing season this fall/winter it should be epic.

-K

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Downhill from here Or more upside?

Posted by Investing Freak on October 15, 2009
General / Comments Off on Downhill from here Or more upside?

The SPY made a hanging man candle today and so did a few other stocks like C (reporting tomorrow before open)

It happened on a bullish trend so it is defenetly a bad sign.

It is late but I will update tomorrow with more writing and of course my favorite thing; charts!

-K

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A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

Posted by Investing Freak on October 02, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on A Week in Review: SPX 1035 Oct 1st Prediction Came True

I wanted to review a crazy wild week (7 market days or 9 days overall).
It all started with a twitter post  on September 23, 2009 at 9:24PM

It then followed with a blog post about the prediction since twitter is known from moving very quickly and people can miss things at a blink of an eye.
This was on September 25th  “S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doable.” ( I misspelled doable on the original post.)

We were in a 3 day down move (23rd to 25th.)  When I did my weekend analysis I saw a familiar pattern which was similar to a “Kicker Bullish“.
That deserved its own post entitled “$SPX Stuck in a 9 Point range… which way will it Break?” Well next day we moved up 20 points.
I was not satisfied with the way the pattern was set up because S&P needed to open up at least 10 points above Instead it started at about the same price as the previous day.

The final blog post was written and titled “The One Day Rally Is Over” In brief, I stated that the pattern wasn’t satisfactory to be a real Kicker Bullish and also the TED Spread had been going higher for the past 2 weeks.  The TED spread measures the risk in the general economy.  With Risk going higher & the pattern looking weak, all I needed was some negative news and got it when S&P began cutting company ratings.

On October 1st I checked back on the market late in the day and to my surprise we had fallen 27 points.  the 1035 prediction was reached and breached right on the day I called.
So that is the week in review and the image below summarizes it even more visually.
(Click Image to Enlarge)
A-week-in-review
Have a good one,
-K

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