Monthly Archives: September 2009

The One Day Rally Is Over!

Posted by K on September 28, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

Last night I posted about the S&P possibly having a Kicker Bullish Setup.
Well  The S&P Rallied 18.60 points to 1062.98.
The Setup was not executed perfectly (market would have had to gap higher today then go the distance)

All bets are off on an extended rally that needs to go higher than 1080.15 to be worthy of anything.

While the market rallied the S&P only traded at half its normal volume.
Stocks like Citigroup which had traded over a billion shares a day, are lately trading at less than 500 million.

The TED Spread which measures the general risk in the economy has been rising the last couple of weeks. today alone it rose 5.42% which means interbank loans are now riskier.  This is still not significant enough and I would like to see another 33% increase in the TED before I really put a lot of my sidelined money on the short side.

We had MBIA (MBI) stock trade up  11.38% today only to be down over 7% in after hours.. why?

Standard & Poor’s on Monday cut its ratings on MBIA Inc and its structured finance insurance arm, MBIA Insurance Corp, citing an expectation the company will continue to take significant losses from insuring risky loans. … The outlook for both companies is negative

Well if that wasn’t enough the dollar has began to show some strength as well despite the almost 20 point one day rally.

Bottom Line:  Be very careful if going long from here on out. The false optimism game has been played for far too long and you might get stuck holding a worthless institutional stock come October.  It’s also end of month markup so for the next few days prices might be kept afloat by institutions.

Have a good one.

-K

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$SPX Stuck in a 9 point range..Which way will it Break?

Posted by K on September 27, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

The S&P 500 index is stuck in a 9 point price box.
1051 is resistance from October 2008.
1042 is support from  the last 3 days and also the 18SMA.

We need to see 2 or more days of market closing either above or below one of these 2 points before there is  any significant breakout or breakdown.
For the moment  we have a setup for almost a Kicker Bullish setup but the 3rd red candle that was put in on Friday doesn’t make this a perfect pattern.
kickercandles
If on Monday we follow the Kicker setup, we might have a move to higher highs (above 1080).
The setup is not exactly a Kicker but it fits the bill very well.  If $SPX closes below 1042 for 2 or more days then next support is 1030 which would be the defining moment of this “Bull Market”.

Here is the attached Daily and Hourly chart  (Click to Enlarge)

spx-92709-box

Look for an update by next weekend if the setup plays out.

-K

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S&P at 1035 by October 1st? I Believe it is doeable.

Posted by K on September 25, 2009
Market Analysis / 2 Comments

On September 23rd at 9:24Pm I wrote the following prediction on Twitter.

Prediction Alert: $SPX 1035 By Oct 1st9:24 PM Sep 23rd from web

I made that prediction based on a few trend lines I was watching that had begun to break down. This is from September 16th. it took then 1 full week of the SPX moving along that trendline before finally breaking below.  (Click To Enlarge)
spx-risingwedge-sept16-09

The next day my system began throwing out SELL alerts and that confirmed my bearish case. I acted upon a few of the alerts and am happy to say that so far they are green.
Here are the alerts for the Major indices.

sell-92409
In my previous post I was expecting the correction to start 10 days earlier than it actually did and that post now stands at 67% accuracy.
Today S&P Closed at 1044. Will it close at or below 1035 by October 1st?  I believe it will, what about you.

Have a good Weekend and check out the rest of the signals by clicking above on the “Current Picks” Tab.

-K

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The last leg of my August 27th prediction.

Posted by K on September 13, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on The last leg of my August 27th prediction.

Well one last time revisiting my latest predictions since august 27th.

Checklist:
Fake Correction? Check (August 27-Sept 2nd)
Mini Recovery?   Check (Sept 3rd to Sept 11th)
Major Correction?  In Progress  (Sept 14th to … )

Check the attached Updated chart. (Click To Enlarge)

spx-sep11-09
The Orange Line Scenario Happened for the most part except the fakeout below a trend line (circled above)

From the Sept 1 Blogpost:
Scenario 1: (Orange Lines)
Bounce back the next 5 days to reach possible 1040   then drop back to 1000’s and head lower going into October.

I am 2/3 so far looking for a full 100% return on my prediction.

Have a good one.
-K

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Mini Correction, Mini Recovery Then Massive Correction?

Posted by K on September 01, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Mini Correction, Mini Recovery Then Massive Correction?

As I posted a while back, (See the “Fake Correction Followed By Fake Rally?” article if you missed it) the $SPX (The S&P 500 Index) has nicely corrected to satisfy me that there will be another move up 20-40 points to shake off more bears and when they are nearly all out (If market makes a higher high it will be seen as very bullish) it will have a massive correction to trap bulls and make bears cry for getting out too quickly.

I will be revisiting the charts I drew in the previous article mentioned above. Let’s start with the closer look in the past 3 days.
I was waiting for the SPX to break either the red or the green line and close below it. Well yesterday it did just that and that was the first clue as to where we were heading today.
The blue arrows are there to just demonstrate the Support line and where yesterday’s close was.  Grey line was my prediction for the next 2 weeks or so but it was defied by the market as it tanked lower and lower.    (Click to Enlarge)

spxsept1

Second chart is the long term view of things and 2 possible outcomes that this investing freak sees realistic.
Scenario 1: (Orange Lines) Bounce back the next 5 days to reach possible 1040 (ADP Nonfarm Employment change tomorrow morning so this could happen if it “surprises”)  then drop back to 1000’s and head lower going into October.
Scenario 2: (Green Lines) Go down further for the next day or to and reach 985-990 for a close (it could go down further and still close above 985 to be valid). Then hit ~1020 shake a few shorts that believe 1000 level has cracked and proceed into 950’s.
Scenario 3:  That’s your opinion and I would like to know 🙂
Here comes the updated chart. (Click to Enlarge)
spx-sep1-09 Good luck! and don’t forget to follow me on:
Twitter ( http://twitter.com/investingfreak )  or  Stocktwits ( http://www.stocktwits.com/u/investingfreak )
For the latest live commentary.

-K

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