Posted by K
on March 16, 2009
On Friday March 6th I made a new blog post calling SKF (UltraShort Financials) Overbought.
Now, 10 days later I want to put my opinion down in writing. SKF went from over $260 to $126 (so far) that is more than 50% off (around $13.40/day for past 10 days).
When I first posted my opinion i was being generous and looking at $182-$186 for the move down to earth.
There was an important fib retracement at $155 and one at $120.
Being a recent fib retracement follower I have a position in the $150-155 range, toady SKF didn’t go as low as $120 or i would have doubled down.
If this is the short term bottom for SKF the move up seems to hit $213, I am not good with timing the market with dates so i don’t want to give misleading info.
to recap.. SKF trying to refuel? Buy at $155 or $120 with a target at $213
I am including a visual as always (Click to enlarge)
Disclosure: As i stated in my post I have a position at $150’s range and was looking to double it at $120.
Posted by K
on March 06, 2009
I hope you saw my post about my February performance. Most of my gains were thanks to shorting the financial sector via SKF.
I have still kept an eye on the ETF after selling it and is now is extremely overbought on many levels. I had a target of $250-255 for it but I did not hold my shares past $200. Now that my target has been reached I am looking for SKF to come back down to earth, I am looking for at least $182-186 range.
With the market crashing down so fast there is not much incentive to go more short as I am sure SEC has plans for a no shorting rule or at least something to stop the bleeding. That concludes this post and I will rest my case by providing you the chart which I am basing my case on.
Below I am attaching a chart showing the RSI being overbought but also SKF itself going over the Bollinger bands that I use.
If you are looking to buy into SKF (besides trading it for quick scalps) then either stay away from it or just take the chart into consideration. (Click to Enlarge)
As always, I merely post my opinions on here so I am not responsible for anyone’s financial decisions.
Have a good day,
Posted by K
on March 01, 2009
February 2009 became the best month in my short trading career.
You can look at my covestor account which assumes that I invest 100% of my portfolio and see that i have made over 23% returns.
In reality, this month I had a gain of 13.54% while S&P was down 10.99%.
I basically beat the S&P by 24.53% (I don’t believe in benchmarks but this is for those readers who do).
The chart I will post below will reveal my true account size which to some of you will seem like spare change. (Click to Enlarge)
Here’s to hoping for a good March Performance. (Be it in a bull or bear market)