Monthly Archives: February 2009

SPY Possible Bullish Pattern

Posted by K on February 28, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on SPY Possible Bullish Pattern

While this past week has been tough on many investors, I have made my fair share of profits trading SKF intraday.
You can check out my covestor page  and see my YTD performance to see how much more disciplined I have become in 2009.

Looking at the SPY 1minute charts, there seems to be a possible Bullish Three Drives Pattern developing.
Using Fibonacci retracements I created the chart below.  Basically when SPY hits 73.39 area there is a strong case for a rally to kick-start. I do not know how strong the rally will be but you might not want to short on Monday.

Here is the SPY 1 minute chart (Click to Enlarge)


As Always, Feel free to add anything on this topic or ask any questions you might have.


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TSO Watch (in the near future)

Posted by K on February 24, 2009
General / Comments Off on TSO Watch (in the near future)

TSO watch for a bullish harmonic pattern in the future (March-April maybe?)

Drawing fib on it in january there was a harmonic bearish pattern from 15-29th. That completed and stock fell temporarily then 2 weeks from earnings prices usually go up in buy the rumor sell the news.
If from 19 to 13 drop is as low as it will go right now then i have 2 choices for the highs.

(a) 61.8% is $16.83 Target then reverse to $10.87 which might prove a good entry for the next wave up.
(b) 78.6% is $17.84 Target then retrace to $11.85 which might prove a good entry for the next wave up.

This sets up a large bullish pattern which is “harmonic” to see if it holds.
Keep in mind I am using 60mins and not daily observation but 10.78-11.85 is the Possible reversal zone for TSO.  

Here comes the chart (without dates below because I don’t want you thinking at those certain dates the prices will match up.  (Click to enlarge)



 Hope you enjoy and always feel free to leave a comment.


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UYG short term bounce next week?

Posted by K on February 20, 2009
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If you looked at my previous post I called for a break of support for S&P 500.

I didnt really set a target below but Matt Trivisonno had called this low back in October.

 768.67 – Coming Soon to a Screen Near You  … a screen about 18 inches in front of your face that is. 768.67 was the S&P 500 intra-day low on October 10, 2002. That was the day that the last bear market ended.

Since that Call was made almost 5 months ago and things have gotten even worse now.. I don’t think the bear market will end here.

The interesting stock of the day is UYG
I have been looking at Fibonacci numbers lately and UYG has 2 targets which it hit.    One was at $2.39 and the otheer at $1.95.
I loaded up at 2.43 with an idea of doubling down at 1.95 but missed the the boat.
      If 1.95 is really a reversal zone there are a few projected upside targets.  Probably strongest resistance will be at
$2.61  (38.2% fib value)
$3.05  (61.8% fib value) also that would fill the gap-down UYG had on February 17  which could mean UYG then is free to begin another leg down to -zero-.
      If i were to be bullish on this ETF (which I am not at the moment)  other resistances above are $3.37  and the extreme $4.29.  I do not see these last 2 prices near term however.

Here is the chart to show you what I am looking at. Note: projected upside values are not shown.  (Click to Enlarge)


Matt Trivisonno (768.67-Coming Soon to a Screen Near You)


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Interesting S&P 500 Chart using Fib Retracements.

Posted by K on February 09, 2009
Market Analysis / Comments Off on Interesting S&P 500 Chart using Fib Retracements.

I have gotten carried away lately with life so this blog hasn’t received the tender caring love.
Tonight I bring you a chart I have been watching since mid January.

There is support of 818 and 804 on the S&P 500 and resistance at 890.  I will add to my short positions at 890 or if we test our supports I will watch closely as I think third time is a charm for a breakdown.

Without further delay here is the (in)famous chart.  Click to Enlarge



Hope you like it.


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